This is a single Yes/No question: will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the conterminous United States before the 2026 calendar year ends? The market carries roughly $333K in cumulative volume and resolves on December 31, 2026, with the National Hurricane Center as the sole source of truth. A Category 4 storm packs sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph, and a single qualifying advisory flips the contract to Yes. The live board above shows the current cross-platform price; the question itself stays fixed all season.
One landfall settles it. The Category 4 hurricane US landfall 2026 market is a binary that pays out the moment the National Hurricane Center logs a single qualifying advisory, and stays at No only if the entire season closes without one. The contract carries roughly $333K in cumulative volume and resolves December 31, 2026. The live board above shows where traders price it right now.
The question is narrow and the bar is specific. A Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale carries maximum sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph. Landfall is defined as the storm's surface center intersecting the coastline. Both definitions come straight from NHC documentation, so there is no room for a judgment call on what counts. The storm has to be at Category 4 strength at the moment its center crosses the coast of the conterminous United States. A storm that peaks at Category 4 over open water and weakens to Category 3 before landfall does not resolve this Yes.
That distinction matters because intensity at landfall is the hardest part of a hurricane to forecast. Storms routinely undergo eyewall replacement cycles or run into dry air and shear in the final hours, shaving a category off the peak. The history is uneven. The United States went 12 seasons without a major hurricane landfall before Harvey in 2017, then saw a cluster of intense landfalls across 2017 through 2024, including Category 4 strikes from Harvey, Laura, Ida, Ian, and Helene. A single warm-water Gulf landfall can settle the entire year, which is why the market does not need an active season so much as one well-timed storm hitting the coast at peak.
Geography concentrates the risk. The Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula absorb the overwhelming share of US Category 4 landfalls because of warm water, a long exposed coastline, and steering patterns that funnel storms northwest. The Carolinas add tail risk later in the season. A storm that recurves out to sea or makes landfall in Mexico or the Caribbean does nothing for this contract, which is scoped to the conterminous US only.
The market resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, using official National Hurricane Center advisories as the source of truth. It settles Yes the instant any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, and No only if the season ends with none. The resolution leans on the NHC's initial qualifying advisory, so an early call of a Category 4 landfall settles the market even if later reanalysis revises the intensity, though subsequent corrections are weighed if they indicate a qualifying event.
For the broader catastrophe picture, the Natural Disaster in 2026 odds track whether a major disaster strikes within the year, and the hottest year 2026 odds follow the climate backdrop that feeds storm intensity. Browse the full weather prediction markets hub for every active contract on hurricanes, temperature, and extreme events, and see Genius Staff's analysis for how these markets are tracked across platforms.
Resolves Yes if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph, surface center intersecting the coastline) as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No. A Category 4 hurricane and a landfall are defined per the NHC Saffir-Simpson scale and glossary. The market may resolve based on the NHC's initial qualifying advisory regardless of any later retraction, though subsequent corrections are considered if they indicate a qualifying event. Storms making landfall outside the conterminous US, or weakening below Category 4 before the center crosses the coast, do not count.
The market trades as a single Yes/No contract with about $333K in cumulative volume. The live board above shows the current cross-platform price for the Yes side.
It resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, using official National Hurricane Center advisories as the source of truth. It settles Yes the moment any qualifying landfall occurs.
A storm whose surface center crosses the conterminous US coastline with maximum sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph, per the NHC Saffir-Simpson scale. A storm that weakens below Category 4 before landfall does not qualify.
The contract is currently listed on Polymarket as a binary Yes/No market. The live board above links to the platform and shows the current price.
Watch Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, the ENSO state, and steering patterns during the August to October peak. A single warm-water Gulf or Florida landfall at peak intensity can settle the market Yes on its own.