The Venezuela leadership 2026 market is one of the largest geopolitical futures on the board, trading across Kalshi and Polymarket with roughly $95M in cumulative volume and a contender field of around 18 named figures. The market asks who will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026: incumbent president Nicolás Maduro sits at the front by a wide margin, with Delcy RodrĂguez, MarĂa Corina Machado, and Edmundo González Urrutia forming the chase tier and a long tail of officials and outside names behind them. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform prices on every contender; the market resolves to whoever is recognized as Venezuela's leader on December 31, 2026.
The Venezuela leadership 2026 market is a long-dated geopolitical futures contract, not a single scheduled event, and the board reflects that. A field of roughly 18 named contenders splits the probability across Venezuelan officials, opposition figures, and a tail of foreign names, but the weight concentrates heavily at the top: incumbent Nicolás Maduro leads the board by a wide margin, with Delcy RodrĂguez the most-backed challenger, followed by MarĂa Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia. At roughly $95M in cumulative volume, this is one of the highest-volume political markets listed on either exchange. The live board above ranks every contender by current cross-platform price; this page covers who the field is, what structurally moves it, and exactly how it resolves.
Nicolás Maduro sits at the front of the Venezuela leadership 2026 field as the incumbent and by far the most heavily backed name, drawing the largest single share of the probability across both platforms. As the sitting president holding the institutions of state, he carries the structural advantage that a who-leads-at-year-end market prices first: continuity is the base case, and the board treats his remaining in place through December 31, 2026 as the most likely single outcome. His standing reflects that incumbency rather than any single dated event. The primary risks to the position are the catalysts that could change who holds power before the resolution window closes, and the board reprices on news bearing on the stability of the government rather than on a fixed campaign calendar.
Delcy RodrĂguez anchors the chase tier as the most-backed name behind Maduro. As a senior figure inside the existing government, her market price reflects a succession-from-within scenario rather than a change in the party holding power, which is a structurally different path than the opposition contenders below her. The board treats her as the leading alternative precisely because that path does not require the government itself to fall.
MarĂa Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia represent the opposition side of the field. Machado is the figure around whom the opposition coalition has organized, and her price reflects the durable base of support behind that movement, while González Urrutia is the opposition's standard-bearer in the disputed presidential contest. Both names price a different scenario than the RodrĂguez line: a transition in which power passes to the opposition rather than within the incumbent government. Below this group, the field flattens into a long tail of Venezuelan officials such as Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino LĂłpez, opposition figures, and a set of foreign names, where the live board above is the only honest read on who is moving and who is dormant.
The Venezuela leadership 2026 market resolves based on who is recognized as the leader of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, the listed resolution date. The market settles to the single contender holding that position at the close of the window, with the winning contract paying $1 per share while every other contender resolves to $0. Because the underlying question is who holds power at a fixed date rather than the outcome of a scheduled vote, the market can reprice on any development affecting who controls the government across the full runway to year-end, and the outcome is fixed at the December 31, 2026 snapshot per each platform's specific recognition rules.
The Venezuela leadership 2026 market sits alongside other long-dated world-leadership futures, including the Iran leadership market on Reza Pahlavi and the 2026 Brazil presidential election market, which together frame how the board prices national-leadership questions across regions. The full slate of leadership, election, and geopolitical races sits in the politics market hub. Page maintained by Genius Staff, refreshed on a review cycle as the field and the prices move.
Resolves based on who is recognized as the leader of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, the listed resolution date. The market settles to the single contender holding that position at the close of the window; that contender's contract pays $1 per share while all other contender contracts resolve to $0. Because the question is who holds power at a fixed date rather than the result of a scheduled vote, the market can reprice on any development affecting control of the government across the full runway to year-end, and the outcome is fixed at the December 31, 2026 snapshot. Recognition of who qualifies as Venezuela's leader, and the handling of any disputed or contested control, follows each platform's specific rules.
The live board above ranks current cross-platform prices on every contender across Kalshi and Polymarket. The field is led by incumbent Nicolás Maduro by a wide margin, with Delcy RodrĂguez, MarĂa Corina Machado, and Edmundo González Urrutia in the chase tier across a field of roughly 18 named contenders.
The market resolves based on who is recognized as the leader of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. Because it settles on who holds power at that fixed date rather than the result of a scheduled vote, the outcome is fixed at the year-end snapshot.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the Venezuela leadership 2026 market, with cross-platform pairs on the leading contenders and roughly $95M in cumulative volume. The board above compares both platforms side by side so you can see where the prices diverge.
Incumbent president Nicolás Maduro sits at the front of the field by a wide margin on both platforms, with Delcy RodrĂguez the most-backed challenger and MarĂa Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia behind. Check the live board above for the current ranking.
Watch incumbent continuity above all, since whether Nicolás Maduro holds power through December 31, 2026 is what decides the base case. Then track succession-from-within signals around Delcy RodrĂguez, the opposition trajectory behind MarĂa Corina Machado, and any recognition or legitimacy developments that reprice the board.