Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction Market Odds, July 11, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Diamondbacks | +1.5 46% | O 9.5 43% | 29%28% | 29% Kalshi |
â–¶Dodgers | -1.5 54% | U 9.5 57% | 72%72% | 72% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Arizona Diamondbacks | +1.5 | O 9.5 | 29% Kalshi | |
â–¶Los Angeles Dodgers | -1.5 | U 9.5 | 72% Kalshi |
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the 72c moneyline favorite over the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium on July 11, 2026, and the price is identical across Kalshi and Polymarket. That reflects a 61-33 Dodgers club sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9-5, 2.49 ERA) against a 46-47 Arizona team that is 19-27 on the road and turns to Brandon Pfaadt (2-1, 4.84 ERA). The board carries roughly $30K in two-platform volume; the live prices sit above.
The Los Angeles Dodgers open as the 72c moneyline favorite against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium on July 11, 2026, and the price is identical on Kalshi (72c) and Polymarket (72c). At 61-33, the Dodgers own the best record on the board and are 31-16 at home; Arizona arrives at 46-47 and a soft 19-27 on the road. The live board above carries the current cross-platform prices on every line.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Moneyline and Line Movement
The Dodgers moneyline sits at 72c, an implied win probability near 72%, with Arizona the return side at 29c (30c on Kalshi, 28c on Polymarket). There is no cross-platform edge on the favorite: both books agree exactly at 72c, so the only 2c split lives on the Diamondbacks side. The line has firmed rather than moved against the Dodgers. Kalshi held Los Angeles between 71c and 72c through the session, while on Polymarket the Diamondbacks drifted from 32c down to 28c, pushing the implied Dodgers price up toward 72c. Money has come in on the home team, and the market is not fading a 61-33 club at home behind its best starter.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Run Line and Total
The run line prices the Dodgers at -1.5 for 54c on Polymarket, a near coin flip that says the market expects Los Angeles to win but is split on whether it wins by two or more. The total is set at 9.5 with the over at 43c, which implies the under is the favored side at roughly 57c. That under lean tracks the pitching: a 2.49 ERA arm at home against a lineup hitting .263 at the top is the classic profile for runs to stay down. The first-five-innings markets echo it, with the opening frame and early totals all trading in the low-to-mid 50s.
Pitching Matchup: Yamamoto vs Pfaadt
The start decides the value here. Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the ball for the Dodgers at 9-5 with a 2.49 ERA, the single biggest reason Los Angeles is a 72c favorite in a division game. Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt at 2-1 and a 4.84 ERA, a nearly two-and-a-half-run gap in ERA that the moneyline is pricing directly. The Dodgers lineup backs Yamamoto with Shohei Ohtani (20 HR), Freddie Freeman (.296), and Andy Pages (64 RBI). Arizona leans on Ketel Marte, who leads the Diamondbacks in average (.263), home runs (17), and RBI (54); outside of Marte the road offense has been thin, which is how a 46-47 team ends up a 29c underdog.
When the Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Market Resolves
The market resolves once the game at Dodger Stadium goes final on July 11, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 9:10 PM ET. The moneyline pays the winning team, the run line settles on the final margin against -1.5, and the total settles on combined runs against 9.5. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket when the game is official.
Key Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Catalysts
The pitching gap is the headline: Yamamoto (2.49 ERA) against Pfaadt (4.84 ERA) is the number the 72c line is built on. The venue split matters, with Los Angeles 31-16 at home and Arizona 19-27 away. There is no moneyline arbitrage, since Kalshi and Polymarket both sit at 72c on the Dodgers. The run line at -1.5 (54c) is the live two-sided question. The total at 9.5 leans under (over 43c) behind Yamamoto. Marte (17 HR) is the one Arizona bat that can flip the under.
Related MLB Markets
For the full-season context on both clubs, the Los Angeles Dodgers hub tracks a 61-33 team chasing home-field, and the Arizona Diamondbacks hub follows a 46-47 group fighting to stay in the NL wild-card mix. Every other game on the slate, with live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, sits on the MLB markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
The Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers market resolves to the team that wins the game at Dodger Stadium on July 11, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 9:10 PM ET. The run line settles on the final margin, where the Dodgers at -1.5 must win by two or more, and the total settles on combined runs scored against the 9.5 line. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing side resolves to $0. Markets settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final and official; a postponement carries the market to the rescheduled date, and a suspended or shortened game settles per each platform official-game rules.
Key Factors
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9-5, 2.49 ERA) starting for the Dodgers against Brandon Pfaadt (2-1, 4.84 ERA)
- Dodgers 31-16 at home versus Arizona 19-27 on the road
- Kalshi and Polymarket agree at 72c on the Dodgers moneyline (no cross-platform edge on the favorite)
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 priced at 54c on Polymarket
- Total set at 9.5 with the over at 43c, implying the under is favored near 57c
- Shohei Ohtani (20 HR) and Freddie Freeman (.296) anchoring the Los Angeles lineup
What are the current Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds?
As of July 11, 2026, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the 72c moneyline favorite (72c on both Kalshi and Polymarket) and the Arizona Diamondbacks sit at 29c (30c Kalshi, 28c Polymarket). That implies about a 72% win probability for the Dodgers.
Where can I trade the Diamondbacks vs Dodgers market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with the moneyline, run line, and total all live. Prediction Genius aggregates both books so you can compare the cross-platform price on every line.
Who is favored in Diamondbacks vs Dodgers and by how much?
The Dodgers are favored at 72c, an implied win probability near 72%. They are 61-33 overall and 31-16 at home, and they start Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his 2.49 ERA against Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (4.84 ERA).
When does the Diamondbacks vs Dodgers market resolve?
It resolves once the game at Dodger Stadium goes final on July 11, 2026, with first pitch set for 9:10 PM ET. The moneyline pays the game winner, and the run line and total settle on the final score.
What is the Diamondbacks vs Dodgers run line and total?
The Dodgers are laying the run line at -1.5, priced at 54c on Polymarket, and the total is set at 9.5 with the over at 43c. Watch whether Yamamoto and his 2.49 ERA pull the total under before first pitch.