Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction Market Odds, August 26, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Orioles | -3.5 22% | O 1 46%47% | 50%38% | 50% Kalshi |
â–¶Cardinals | +3.5 78% | U 1 54%53% | 50%51% | 51% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Baltimore Orioles | -3.5 | O 1 | 50% Kalshi | |
â–¶St. Louis Cardinals | +3.5 | U 1 | 51% Polymarket |
No player props available for this game.
Baltimore at St. Louis is priced as a true coin flip: the Orioles at 50c on Kalshi, the Cardinals at 50c Kalshi and 51c Polymarket, with the board holding pick'em across every snapshot captured this evening. St. Louis (66-66) has lost three straight after a sweep in Philadelphia and Baltimore (63-68) is 5-5 in its last 10, and the probable starters are separated by 0.16 in ERA. The only asymmetry sits on the run line, where Baltimore -1.5 at 39c trades 7c above St. Louis -1.5 at 32c.
Baltimore and St. Louis meet in the middle game of a three-game interleague series at Busch Stadium as a genuine coin flip. The Orioles trade at 50c on Kalshi, the Cardinals at 50c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, and the board has not moved off pick'em in any snapshot captured this evening. Two clubs within three games of .500 (St. Louis 66-66, Baltimore 63-68) drawing a 50c line is the market agreeing with the standings rather than reaching for a read.
Orioles vs Cardinals Pitching Matchup
St. Louis starts Michael McGreevy (5-9, 3.54 ERA), who ranks 26th in the league in earned run average. Baltimore counters with Kyle Bradish (7-12, 3.70 ERA, 32nd). The win-loss records overstate the separation on two teams this far under .500 in run support; the 0.16 gap in ERA is the honest number, and it is small enough that the market has priced no starter edge whatsoever.
Form does not break the tie either. St. Louis arrives on a three-game losing streak after being swept in Philadelphia by scores of 7-6, 12-3 and 6-4, and is 4-6 across its last 10. Baltimore is 5-5 across its last 10 and dropped its most recent game 3-1 to Tampa Bay. Busch Stadium has not been an edge for the Cardinals this season either: they are 32-34 at home against 34-32 on the road, while Baltimore is 29-34 away from Camden Yards. St. Louis sits 3rd in the NL Central, Baltimore 4th in the AL East, and neither team is playing for position in a way the board can price.
One structural note before the derivative lines. Baltimore's moneyline is a Kalshi-only row on this board. Polymarket carries a leg on the Cardinals side (51c) but not on the Orioles side, so the 50c on Baltimore is a single-book price and the cross-platform read here comes entirely from the Cardinals row, where the two books sit 1c apart.
What the Orioles vs Cardinals Run Line and Total Say
The run line is the only place the board tips. Baltimore -1.5 trades at 39c (40c Kalshi, 38c Polymarket) while St. Louis -1.5 trades at 32c (33c Kalshi, 31c Polymarket). A 7c gap on identical spreads underneath an even moneyline says the market gives Baltimore the better shot at a multi-run margin, which reflects a wider expected scoring distribution for the Orioles rather than a favorite. The same shape holds a run further out: Baltimore -2.5 at 29c against St. Louis -2.5 at 23.5c.
The total sits at 8.5 with the over at 47c on both books. The 7.5 over trades at 55c and the 9.5 over at 37c on Kalshi and 36c on Polymarket, which puts the market's expected combined run total right around 8.4.
Line movement on that total is the most interesting thing on the board. The over 8.5 quote on Polymarket printed 61c in the first capture of the evening, 60c an hour later, then 47c, 46c and 47c across the next 40 minutes. Kalshi's leg on that same line entered the series at 49c and now reads 48c, so the two books agree within 1c after a 14c repricing on one side. Neither total leg carries traded volume yet, so those are posted quotes rather than transacted prices. The moneyline did the opposite: Baltimore printed 50c on Kalshi in all five of its captures, and St. Louis printed 50c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket in all four of its own.
The most-traded line on this board is not the moneyline at all. Run in 1st inning trades at 46.5c (46c Kalshi, 47c Polymarket) and carries $991 of the board's $1.7K in lifetime volume, more than the two moneyline rows combined.
When the Orioles vs Cardinals Market Resolves
The market resolves on the final score of the game scheduled for 7:45 PM ET on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game. The run line settles on the final margin, and the total settles on combined runs scored by both clubs. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle once the game is official and the score is final, typically within a few hours of the last out.
Key Orioles vs Cardinals Catalysts
- Starting pitchers: McGreevy (3.54 ERA) against Bradish (3.70 ERA), a 0.16 separation the market has priced as no edge at all.
- St. Louis form: three straight losses and a sweep in Philadelphia, with the Cardinals 32-34 at home this season.
- The run line split: Baltimore -1.5 at 39c against St. Louis -1.5 at 32c is the only asymmetry on an otherwise even board.
- Total repricing: the over 8.5 came down from 61c to 47c on Polymarket in roughly two hours of evening captures, with Kalshi landing at 48c.
- Where the money actually is: run in 1st inning at 46.5c holds $991 of the board's $1.7K lifetime volume.
- Lineup and bullpen news: a late scratch on either starter is the single event that moves a 50c board, since nothing else in the profile separates these teams.
Related Orioles vs Cardinals Markets
This is the second game of the series, and the series opener carries its own board. The season-long context lives in the futures markets: the Cardinals win total and the Orioles win total both price where these records land in late September, while St. Louis playoff odds and Baltimore playoff odds price what a .500 August is worth in each league. The 2026 World Series market and the full MLB board cover the rest of the league.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves on the final score of the Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals game scheduled for 7:45 PM ET on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at Busch Stadium. The moneyline contract for each team pays $1 per share if that team wins the game and $0 otherwise. The run line settles on the final margin of victory, and the total settles on the combined runs scored by both clubs. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the game is official and the final score is posted. If the game is suspended and completed on a later date, both platforms settle on the completed final score. If the game is postponed and rescheduled outside the platforms' stated window, or is shortened before it becomes an official game, contracts void and refund per each platform's published rules.
Key Factors
- Michael McGreevy (5-9, 3.54 ERA) against Kyle Bradish (7-12, 3.70 ERA), a 0.16 ERA gap priced as no edge
- St. Louis carries a three-game losing streak into Busch Stadium after being swept in Philadelphia
- Baltimore -1.5 at 39c against St. Louis -1.5 at 32c, the only asymmetry on an even board
- Over 8.5 repriced from 61c to 47c on Polymarket across roughly two hours of evening captures
- Run in 1st inning at 46.5c holds $991 of the board's $1.7K lifetime volume, the most-traded line here
- Baltimore's moneyline is a Kalshi-only row, so the cross-platform read comes from the Cardinals side
What are the current Orioles vs Cardinals odds?
As of August 26, 2026 the game is a pick'em. The Cardinals average 50.5c across the two books (50c on Kalshi, 51c on Polymarket) and the Orioles trade at 50c on Kalshi. The live board above carries the current prices.
Who is favored in Orioles vs Cardinals?
Neither team. Both moneyline sides sit at roughly 50c, an implied win probability near 50% for each, which matches records of 66-66 for St. Louis and 63-68 for Baltimore.
Where can I trade the Orioles vs Cardinals market?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list this game. Kalshi carries the deeper board with moneyline, run line, totals and the run in 1st inning market, while Polymarket carries the Cardinals moneyline, both run lines and the main totals.
What are the Orioles vs Cardinals run line and total?
Baltimore -1.5 trades at 39c and St. Louis -1.5 at 32c. The main total is 8.5 with the over at 47c on both platforms, which implies an expected combined score right around 8.4 runs.
When does the Orioles vs Cardinals market resolve?
It resolves on the final score of the 7:45 PM ET game on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at Busch Stadium, with both platforms settling once the game is official.
What should I watch before first pitch?
Confirmed lineups and any late scratch to Michael McGreevy or Kyle Bradish. On a board sitting at 50c a side with a 0.16 ERA gap between the starters, a pitching change is the one event that repositions the line before 7:45 PM ET.