Red Sox vs Mets Prediction Market Odds, July 11, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Sox | +1.5 60% | — | 43%42% | 43% Kalshi |
▶Mets | -1.5 40% | — | 59%59% | 59% Kalshi |
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The New York Mets are the 57.5c moneyline favorite (59c Kalshi, 56c Polymarket) at home against the Boston Red Sox, who sit at 43.5c. That is the read despite the Mets carrying a 40-55 record, fifteen games under .500, while Boston is 44-48 and 27-21 on the road. Home field at Citi Field and Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.68 ERA) on the mound carry the Mets price. Polymarket has the cheaper Mets number at 56c versus 59c on Kalshi.
The New York Mets host the Boston Red Sox at Citi Field on July 11, 2026, and the prediction market has the Mets as the 57.5c favorite even though they own the worse record. New York is 40-55, fifteen games below .500, while Boston is 44-48. The moneyline still leans Mets on the strength of home field and the starting pitcher, and the cross-platform prices split by 3c on the favorite.
Red Sox vs Mets Market Context
The Mets moneyline trades at 57.5c on average, 59c on Kalshi and 56c on Polymarket, an implied win probability near 57%. The Red Sox sit at 43.5c (43c Kalshi, 44c Polymarket). The 3c cross-platform gap on the Mets favors Polymarket for backing New York, since 56c is the cheaper entry on the same outcome. Kalshi held the Mets near 57c through the overnight window and ticked up to 59c, while Polymarket stayed at 56c, so the favorite has firmed slightly without changing hands.
The records complicate the chalk. New York is 40-55 overall and just 21-26 at Citi Field, while Boston is 44-48 but 27-21 on the road, the better relevant split of the two. That road strength is the case for the Red Sox at 43.5c. The Mets counter with Juan Soto, who leads the club at .297 with 21 home runs and 51 RBI, against a Boston lineup fronted by Jarren Duran (13 home runs, 44 RBI) and Ceddanne Rafaela (.283).
On the derivative markets, the Mets run line (-1.5) trades at 41c on Polymarket, pricing a Mets win by two or more runs below a coin flip, consistent with a modest 57.5c moneyline. The game total sits at O/U 8.5 with the over at 46c on Polymarket, a slight lean under 8.5 runs. Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.68 ERA) starts for New York, and Boston had not published its probable starter as of the morning of July 11, which leaves the pitching edge nominally with the Mets and is a live variable on the number.
When the Red Sox vs Mets Market Resolves
The Red Sox vs Mets market resolves on the final score of the game scheduled for July 11, 2026, at Citi Field, first pitch 4:10 PM ET. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game. The run line (-1.5) settles on the margin of victory and the total (O/U 8.5) on combined runs scored. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final, and a postponement or suspension moves settlement to the completion date under each platform's rules.
Key Red Sox vs Mets Factors
- Starting pitching: Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.68 ERA) starts for New York, and Boston's unannounced starter is the largest open variable on the moneyline.
- Cross-platform value: the Mets are 3c cheaper on Polymarket (56c) than Kalshi (59c), the better price to back the favorite.
- Boston road form: the Red Sox are 27-21 on the road versus the Mets' 21-26 at home, the split that supports the 43.5c dog.
- Bat matchup: Juan Soto (.297, 21 HR, 51 RBI) anchors the Mets, while Jarren Duran (13 HR) and Ceddanne Rafaela (.283) lead Boston.
- Total and run line: the over 8.5 sits at 46c and the Mets -1.5 at 41c on Polymarket, both pricing a tight, low-scoring game.
- Line stability: the Mets held near 57c overnight and firmed to 59c on Kalshi, a favorite that has not wavered.
Related Red Sox vs Mets Markets
Follow the New York Mets market hub and the Boston Red Sox market hub for both clubs' full schedules, or step up to the MLB odds board for every game on the July 11 card. The broader sports prediction markets hub tracks cross-platform prices across every league.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves on the final score of the Boston Red Sox at New York Mets game scheduled for July 11, 2026, at Citi Field in Queens, New York, with first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. The moneyline pays out on the team that wins the game, with each side settling at $1 per winning share and $0 otherwise. The run line settles on whether the Mets win by two or more runs (Mets -1.5) and the total on whether combined runs finish over or under 8.5. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is official. If the game is postponed, suspended, or shortened, settlement follows each platform's completion and resolution rules for the rescheduled or called game.
Key Factors
- Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.68 ERA) starts for the Mets; Boston's probable starter unannounced
- Mets 3c cheaper on Polymarket (56c) than Kalshi (59c) on the moneyline
- Red Sox 27-21 on the road versus Mets 21-26 at home supports the 43.5c dog
- Juan Soto (.297, 21 HR, 51 RBI) anchors the Mets lineup
- Total O/U 8.5 at 46c and Mets run line (-1.5) at 41c on Polymarket
- Mets held near 57c overnight and firmed to 59c on Kalshi
What are the current Red Sox vs Mets odds?
As of July 11, 2026, the Mets are the 57.5c moneyline favorite (59c on Kalshi, 56c on Polymarket) and the Red Sox are 43.5c (43c Kalshi, 44c Polymarket).
Who is favored in Red Sox vs Mets?
The New York Mets are favored at 57.5c, an implied win probability near 57%, despite a 40-55 record, against the 44-48 Red Sox.
Where can I trade the Red Sox vs Mets market?
The moneyline, run line, and total trade on both Kalshi and Polymarket; the Mets run line (-1.5) and the O/U 8.5 total are priced on Polymarket at 41c and 46c.
When does the Red Sox vs Mets market resolve?
It resolves on the final score of the game at Citi Field on July 11, 2026, with first pitch at 4:10 PM ET, and settles once the game is official.
What should I watch before Red Sox vs Mets resolves?
Boston's unannounced starter against Freddy Peralta (4.68 ERA) is the key variable; watch whether the Mets hold near 59c on Kalshi or the Red Sox road form (27-21) pulls the 43.5c number toward a coin flip.