Astros vs Mets Prediction Market Odds, August 28, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Astros | — | O 1 40% | 51% | 51% Kalshi |
▶Mets | — | U 1 60% | 52% | 52% Kalshi |
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Houston (66-67) leads the AL West and New York (60-73) is fifth in the NL East, and the Astros vs Mets moneyline still prices as close to a coin flip as Kalshi will quote: Mets 52c, Astros 51c as of August 27, 2026. Houston opened this board at 55c and has been sold down four cents, the only real movement either side has shown. Hunter Brown (3.51 ERA) faces Christian Scott (3.73 ERA) at Citi Field, first pitch 7:10 PM ET on August 28, 2026. The live board above carries the current prices.
Houston sits at 66-67 and leads the AL West. New York sits at 60-73 and is fifth in the NL East. Thirteen games of separation in the standings buys the Astros nothing on this board: the Astros vs Mets moneyline is quoted at 52c New York, 51c Houston on Kalshi as of August 27, 2026, which after backing out the vig is 50.5% for the Mets and 49.5% for the Astros. That is a pick'em on a game between a division leader and a team the market has already written off, and the reason is the pitching matchup plus Citi Field.
Astros vs Mets Market Context
Hunter Brown (3.51 ERA) starts for Houston against Christian Scott (3.73 ERA) for New York. Twenty-two hundredths of a run separates the two listed starters, and that near-parity is what holds the moneyline flat rather than letting the better team pull away. Houston's road record is 33-32, its only winning split; New York is 31-36 at home, so the traditional home edge is not doing much work here either. The market is pricing the two teams as roughly equal on the night while treating their seasons as nothing alike.
The season-long boards say the opposite of the moneyline. The Astros playoff market trades at 42c despite Houston holding first place in the AL West, which is the market saying a 66-67 division leader is closer to a coin flip than a favorite. The Mets playoff market trades at 2c on Kalshi and 1c on Polymarket, an average of 1.5c. New York is playing out the string. Houston is playing for the division and for a wild-card cushion it does not have.
Lineup weight favors Houston clearly. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .322 with 36 home runs and 91 RBI and is the single largest swing factor in any Astros game. New York's leaders are thinner: Carson Benge is hitting .281 with 16 home runs, and Bo Bichette leads the club with 66 RBI. A single-game moneyline does not price a full-season slugging gap the way a win-total board does, but it is the reason Houston is the side with the higher ceiling in any given inning.
Line movement (what the board actually shows): Houston opened at 55c in the earliest snapshot this board carries, on the morning of August 26, and has been sold down to 51c across 18 captures, a four-cent slide. The Mets side has held inside a 51c to 53c band across 14 captures and sits at 52c. So the movement is one-directional and modest: money has come in against Houston, and the game has drifted from a slight Astros edge to a true pick'em. The board reaches back roughly a day, so that is the full extent of the price history available, not a season-long trend.
Cross-platform, this is a Kalshi board on the side that matters. The moneyline carries no Polymarket price on either team. Polymarket is linked to the game through the run-in-the-first-inning contract, and that leg carries zero volume. Read the moneyline as a single-book quote and size accordingly. Total lifetime volume across all three contracts on this board is about $74 as of August 27, 2026, which is thin even by daily-game standards, so the quote is a starting point rather than a deep consensus.
The alt market on the board is the first-inning run, priced at 40c on Kalshi. That is consistent with two starters carrying sub-3.75 ERAs into the game and is the cleanest read available on how the market expects the top of the order to go against Brown and Scott.
When the Astros vs Mets Market Resolves
The market resolves on the official final result of the game at Citi Field in Queens on August 28, 2026, first pitch 7:10 PM ET. Both independent sources agree on that time: the Kalshi ticker (KXMLBGAME-26AUG281910HOUNYM) encodes 19:10 ET, and the ESPN scoreboard lists the same start. Moneyline contracts pay $1 per share on the winning team and $0 on the loser. The first-inning contract settles on whether any run scores in the top or bottom of the first. Broadcast is SNY in New York, Space City Home Network in Houston, and MLB.TV.
Key Astros vs Mets Catalysts
Starting pitching: Hunter Brown (3.51 ERA) against Christian Scott (3.73 ERA) is the closest matchup input on the board and the main reason the moneyline is flat.
Yordan Alvarez: .322, 36 home runs, 91 RBI. Houston's price moves more on his availability than on any other single name.
One-book pricing: the moneyline quotes on Kalshi only, with no Polymarket leg on either team, so there is no second book to check the number against.
Thin liquidity: about $74 in lifetime volume across the whole board, so the 51c/52c quote can move on small size.
Divergent stakes: Houston is first in the AL West and 42c to reach the postseason; New York is 1.5c across the two platforms and eliminated in all but arithmetic.
Home split: New York is 31-36 at Citi Field while Houston is 33-32 on the road, which removes most of the usual home-field adjustment.
Related Astros vs Mets Markets
The season-long context for this game lives on four boards. Houston's postseason path is priced on the Astros playoff market at 42c, and its full-season pace on the Astros win total. New York's collapse is priced on the Mets playoff market at 1.5c and the Mets win total. For every game on both clubs' remaining schedules, see the Houston Astros hub and the New York Mets hub, or the full MLB board for the rest of the slate.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game at Citi Field in Queens, New York on August 28, 2026, with a scheduled first pitch of 7:10 PM ET. Each moneyline contract pays $1 per share if that team wins and $0 if it loses, settled on the official final result once the game goes final. The first-inning contract resolves YES if any run scores in either half of the first inning. If the game is suspended, postponed, or rescheduled, each platform applies its own posted rules for rescheduled MLB games, and a game called before it becomes official is voided rather than settled on a partial score.
Key Factors
- Hunter Brown (3.51 ERA) vs Christian Scott (3.73 ERA), the closest input on the board
- Yordan Alvarez (.322, 36 HR, 91 RBI) availability as the largest single price-mover for Houston
- Moneyline is Kalshi-only with no Polymarket leg on either team, so there is no second book to check
- Thin liquidity: about $74 in lifetime volume across the whole board
- Houston at 42c to reach the postseason vs New York at 1.5c, opposite stakes on the same field
- Home split neutralized: Mets 31-36 at Citi Field, Astros 33-32 on the road
What are the current Astros vs Mets odds?
As of August 27, 2026, Kalshi quotes the New York Mets at 52c and the Houston Astros at 51c. Backing out the vig, that is 50.5% for the Mets and 49.5% for the Astros, a true pick'em.
Where can I trade the Astros vs Mets market?
The moneyline trades on Kalshi under ticker KXMLBGAME-26AUG281910HOUNYM. Polymarket is linked to the game only through the run-in-the-first-inning contract, and that leg currently carries zero volume, so the moneyline is a single-book quote.
Who is favored in Astros vs Mets?
Neither side is a meaningful favorite. The Mets hold a one-cent edge at 52c to 51c despite a 60-73 record against Houston's 66-67, because Hunter Brown (3.51 ERA) and Christian Scott (3.73 ERA) are nearly matched and the Mets are only 31-36 at home.
When does the Astros vs Mets market resolve?
It resolves on the official final result of the August 28, 2026 game at Citi Field, first pitch 7:10 PM ET. Winning moneyline contracts pay $1 per share and losing contracts pay $0.
Has the Astros vs Mets line moved?
Yes. Houston opened at 55c in the earliest snapshot this board carries on August 26 and has traded down to 51c across 18 captures. The Mets side has held in a 51c to 53c band and sits at 52c. The board only reaches back about a day, so that is the full price history available.