| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Tempo | +27.5 84% | O 166.5 77% | 9%10% | 10% Polymarket |
â–¶Aces | -27.5 16% | U 166.5 23% | 92%91% | 92% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Tempo | +27.5 | O 166.5 | 10% Polymarket | |
â–¶Aces | -27.5 | U 166.5 | 92% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
Las Vegas is a 91.5c average favorite over Toronto (92c Kalshi, 91c Polymarket), a price that has climbed 7c on Kalshi since the board opened on August 26. The Aces are 26-13 and have won both meetings this season, 109-83 and 88-78, while the 11-27 Tempo arrive on the second night of a road back-to-back after losing 90-78 at Seattle. The live board above carries the current moneyline, the Las Vegas -15.5 spread and the full total ladder.
Las Vegas is a 91.5c average favorite (92c Kalshi, 91c Polymarket) against a Toronto side that has lost nine of its last ten and played in Seattle the night before this one. The Aces are 26-13 and 12-7 at Michelob ULTRA Arena; the Tempo are 11-27 and 4-14 on the road in their first season. The board carries $6.2K in lifetime volume across both platforms, with $3.7K of it on the Las Vegas moneyline leg, and it resolves the moment the game goes final on Friday, August 28, 2026.
The Tempo vs Aces moneyline is priced as close to a formality as a WNBA regular-season game gets. Las Vegas sits at 92c on Kalshi and 91c on Polymarket, a 1c cross-platform gap that gives neither book a materially better number. Toronto trades at 9c on Kalshi and 10c on Polymarket. That 91.5c consensus is stronger than ESPN's own matchup projection, which gives Las Vegas 87.2% and Toronto 12.8%, so the market is roughly 4.8 points of implied probability more certain about the Aces than the model is.
The season series backs the price. Las Vegas has won both meetings, 109-83 on July 21 and 88-78 in Toronto on August 23. The second of those is the number that matters for the spread: the Aces needed a 10-point road win five days ago, and the Kalshi spread ladder now asks them to win by 16 at home. Las Vegas -15.5 trades at 51c, a coin flip, with -12.5 at 61c and -18.5 at 40c on either side of it. DraftKings posts the same -15.5 line, so the exchange and the sportsbook agree on where the game sits.
Rest and rotation split the two rosters. Toronto lost 90-78 at Seattle on August 27 and arrives in Las Vegas on the second night of a road back-to-back. The Aces have not played since August 23. Toronto is also missing five players, with Brittney Sykes, Marina Mabrey, Julie Allemand, Aneesah Morrow and Zaay Green all listed out; Laura Juskaite leads the Tempo at 10.1 points per game and Maria Conde at 4.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists. Las Vegas is without NaLyssa Smith and Dana Evans but keeps its top three, with A'ja Wilson at 26.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game and Chelsea Gray at 6.8 assists.
The total is where the game is genuinely uncertain. Kalshi's over ladder puts 178.5 at 58c, 181.5 at 51c and 184.5 at 44c, which places the market total near 181.5, a point above the 180.5 DraftKings number. The two meetings this season landed at 192 and 166 combined points, so the recent sample straddles the line rather than pointing at it. Player props are posted but unpriced, including A'ja Wilson points at 25.5 (half a point under her season average), Jackie Young at 19.5 and Kiki Rice at 15.5 for Toronto.
This board carries roughly 24 hours of snapshot history, from August 26 through the most recent capture, and the direction in that window is one-way toward Las Vegas. The Aces opened the series at 85c on Kalshi and 88c on Polymarket and now trade at 92c and 91c, a 7c climb on Kalshi. Toronto moved the other way, from 17c to 9c on Kalshi and from a 16c intraday peak to 10c on Polymarket. The steepest part of the move landed after Toronto's loss in Seattle, which is consistent with the market repricing a short-rest road team rather than reacting to news out of Las Vegas.
Note that the two books converged as they moved. Polymarket was 3c higher on the Aces when the series opened and is now 1c lower, so the early cross-platform gap has closed rather than widened. There is no meaningful pricing difference left between the two venues on the moneyline.
The game tips at 10:00 PM ET on Friday, August 28, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, with national coverage on ION and TSN in Canada. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game, including any overtime. The spread market settles on the final margin, so Las Vegas -15.5 pays only if the Aces win by 16 or more. The total settles on combined final points, again including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle once the league posts the final score, typically within a few hours of the buzzer, and a postponement pushes settlement to the rescheduled date rather than voiding the contracts.
Toronto's back-to-back: the Tempo played at Seattle on August 27 and travel to Las Vegas on no rest, while the Aces have been idle since August 23.
Toronto's availability: five Tempo players are listed out, including Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey, which is the direct cause of the 9c to 10c moneyline price.
A'ja Wilson's minutes: Wilson averages 26.0 points and 9.5 rebounds, and her posted points prop of 25.5 assumes a full workload rather than an early exit in a blowout.
The 51c spread: Las Vegas -15.5 is the closest thing on this board to a real question, and the same matchup produced a 10-point Aces road win on August 23.
The total near 181.5: the season series landed at 192 and 166 combined points, so the over ladder is pricing a mid-range outcome that neither meeting has produced.
Seeding stakes: Las Vegas is 26-13 and third in the West, 5 games behind Minnesota, so the Aces have a live reason to press rather than coast.
The Aces trade well beyond this game. The 2026 WNBA championship market carries the conference-level version of this read, and the Las Vegas Aces win total prices exactly how many more nights like this one the Aces convert. On the other side, the Toronto Tempo playoff market shows what an 11-27 expansion season is worth with the calendar this short. A'ja Wilson's individual case sits on the 2026 WNBA MVP board, and the previous meeting between these two is priced at the August 23 Aces vs Tempo board. Every WNBA game and futures board is indexed on the WNBA hub.
Resolves on the outcome of Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on Friday, August 28, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. The moneyline pays $1 per share to the team that wins the game, overtime included, and $0 to the other side. The spread market settles on the final margin, so Las Vegas -15.5 pays only if the Aces win by 16 or more points. The total settles on combined final points, also including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle from the official WNBA final score once the league posts it, usually within a few hours of the final buzzer. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the rescheduled date rather than voiding; if the game is canceled outright and not made up, each platform applies its own void and refund rules.
As of August 27, 2026, Las Vegas trades at 92c on Kalshi and 91c on Polymarket, a 91.5c average, and Toronto trades at 9c on Kalshi and 10c on Polymarket. The Aces have moved up 7c on Kalshi since the board opened on August 26.
Las Vegas, at roughly 92% implied probability. ESPN's matchup projection is slightly softer at 87.2% for the Aces and 12.8% for Toronto, so the market is about 4.8 points more confident than the model.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the moneyline, and Kalshi additionally lists the spread ladder, the total ladder and player props. The board carries $6.2K in lifetime volume across the two platforms.
Las Vegas -15.5 trades at 51c on Kalshi, matching the DraftKings line of -15.5. The over ladder puts 178.5 at 58c and 181.5 at 51c, implying a market total near 181.5 against the DraftKings number of 180.5.
The game tips at 10:00 PM ET on Friday, August 28, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena, on ION nationally and TSN in Canada. Both platforms settle from the official final score, usually within a few hours of the buzzer.
Toronto's inactive list, which stood at five players including Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey, and any late word on A'ja Wilson's workload. Her posted points prop of 25.5 assumes a full night rather than an early exit in a blowout.