Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction Market Odds, August 13, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Brewers | +1.5 62%66% | O 1 50% | 24%25% | 25% Polymarket |
▶Dodgers | -1.5 38%34% | U 1 50% | 37%34% | 37% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Milwaukee Brewers | +1.5 | O 1 | 25% Polymarket | |
▶Los Angeles Dodgers | -1.5 | U 1 | 37% Kalshi |
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Los Angeles is the 56.5c favorite (57c Kalshi, 56c Polymarket) against Milwaukee at 44c on both books, the shortest the Dodgers have been priced in a week. The Brewers own the better record at 74-47 to 72-48 but arrive on a three-game losing streak after being swept in San Diego. Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.54 ERA) starts for Los Angeles against Shane Drohan (6-4, 3.87 ERA), the better season ERA of the two.
Milwaukee arrives at Dodger Stadium with the better record and the worse price. The Brewers are 74-47, two games ahead of the Dodgers at 72-48, and they open Thursday's series as the 44c underdog on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Los Angeles is 57c on Kalshi and 56c on Polymarket, a 56.5c cross-platform average that is the shortest the Dodgers have been priced in a week. Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.54 ERA) starts for Los Angeles against Shane Drohan (6-4, 3.87 ERA), and first pitch is 7:10 pm PT on Thursday, August 13, 2026.
Brewers vs Dodgers Market Context
The pricing arc is the story here. Across the three games against Kansas City, Los Angeles traded at 75c, 72c and 67c, and the Dodgers won the first two of that set by a run each, 6-5 and 5-4 in 10 innings. At 56.5c against Milwaukee, the board is docking Los Angeles roughly 15c relative to the middle of that series. That is not a read on the Dodgers. It is a read on the opponent, and it is the cleanest single number on the page for how much the market rates Milwaukee.
The Brewers come in cold. San Diego swept them 3-2, 11-2 and 4-3 in 11 innings, and Milwaukee was priced as a 53c favorite entering that series. Three straight losses have not moved the season line much because the underlying record is still 74-47, best of the two clubs in this matchup, and 33-25 on the road. The Dodgers are 35-23 at home. Home field plus a rotation day is most of the 12.5c gap between the two sides.
The two books agree almost exactly. Kalshi has Los Angeles at 57c and Milwaukee at 44c, a 101c sum that is the standard exchange vig. Polymarket has 56c and 44c, summing to 100c. A 1c difference on the favorite is inside the noise band, so there is no cross-platform disagreement to read into on this board. The Dodgers moneyline is also the deepest line here, with roughly $6.3K of lifetime volume across both venues against a thin book on the derivative markets.
Movement has been narrow. The Kalshi Dodgers side opened Wednesday evening at 56c and sits at 57c, while the Polymarket Brewers side eased from 46c to 44c over the same window. Both moves point the same direction, a slow firming toward Los Angeles of about a cent. The sportsbook consensus tracked it, opening the Dodgers at -136 and closing in at -142. Nothing in the tape suggests a lineup or pitching surprise; this line has held.
Brewers vs Dodgers Pitching Matchup
The underdog has the better season ERA. Drohan is 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA in his rookie year, and Sasaki carries a 4.54 ERA with a 5-5 record. That inversion is why the moneyline is 56.5c and not 65c. The market is paying for the Dodgers lineup and the venue, not for the arm.
The scoring markets frame it the same way. Milwaukee to score more than 3.5 runs prices at 53c and Los Angeles to score more than 3.5 runs prices at 60c, a 7c spread that implies roughly a half-run edge to the home side. The game total sits on 8.5, with Over 8.5 at 49c, Over 9.5 at 39c and Over 7.5 at 57c. That is a market centered almost exactly on 8.5 runs, matching the sportsbook number.
The run line tells you the shape the board expects. Los Angeles at -1.5 trades at 38c against a 56.5c moneyline, an 18c gap. Milwaukee at -1.5 is 33c. Neither side is priced to win comfortably, which is the standard read for a one-run game between two clubs separated by two games in the standings. On the offensive side, Los Angeles leans on Shohei Ohtani (26 home runs) and Freddie Freeman (.305), while Milwaukee counters with Jackson Chourio (.275) and Brice Turang (76 RBI).
When the Brewers vs Dodgers Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game on Thursday, August 13, 2026, at Dodger Stadium, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 pm PT. Extra innings count; there is no draw outcome on the two-way moneyline. The run line and the total settle on the official final score including extra innings, and the first-five-innings markets settle on the score after the top and bottom of the fifth. If the game is postponed or suspended, each platform applies its own rescheduling or void rule rather than settling on a partial score.
Key Brewers vs Dodgers Catalysts
Starting pitching: Sasaki (4.54 ERA) against Drohan (3.87 ERA), with the road underdog holding the better season number.
Milwaukee form: three straight losses in San Diego (3-2, 11-2, 4-3 in 11 innings) against a 74-47 season record and a 33-25 road mark.
The step up in opposition: Los Angeles traded at 75c, 72c and 67c against Kansas City and is 56.5c here, a 15c repricing driven entirely by the opponent.
Total on 8.5: Over 8.5 at 49c and Over 9.5 at 39c as of August 13, 2026, a market sitting right on the number.
Cross-platform agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket are within 1c on the favorite, so the read is consensus rather than a pricing gap.
Run line versus moneyline: the Dodgers at -1.5 trade 18c below their moneyline, which prices a one-run game as the base case.
Related Brewers vs Dodgers Markets
Milwaukee's previous game, the Brewers at Padres finale, is the third leg of the sweep that set up this price, and the Royals at Dodgers finale is where the 67c number came from. For the season-long version of the same question, the World Series winner market and the NL Central division market both carry Milwaukee, and the full slate of daily pricing lives on the MLB hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, August 13, 2026, first pitch scheduled for 7:10 pm PT. Extra innings count toward the final result and there is no draw outcome on the two-way moneyline, so every contract settles to one side. The run line (-1.5) and the game total settle on the official final score including extra innings, and the first-five-innings markets settle on the score after the completed fifth inning. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and every losing contract resolves to $0. If the game is postponed, suspended or shortened, Kalshi and Polymarket each apply their own rescheduling or void rules rather than settling on a partial score.
Key Factors
- Roki Sasaki (5-5, 4.54 ERA) against Shane Drohan (6-4, 3.87 ERA), with the road underdog holding the better season ERA
- Milwaukee swept in San Diego 3-2, 11-2 and 4-3 in 11 innings, against a 74-47 season record and a 33-25 road mark
- Los Angeles priced 75c, 72c and 67c across the Kansas City series and 56.5c here, a 15c repricing driven by the opponent
- Game total centered on 8.5 runs, with Over 8.5 at 49c and Over 9.5 at 39c on August 13, 2026
- Kalshi and Polymarket within 1c on the moneyline, so the cross-platform read is agreement, not divergence
- Dodgers run line (-1.5) at 38c against a 56.5c moneyline, an 18c gap that prices a one-run game as the base case
What are the current Brewers vs Dodgers odds?
As of August 13, 2026, Los Angeles is 57c on Kalshi and 56c on Polymarket for a 56.5c cross-platform average, and Milwaukee is 44c on both venues. That is the shortest price the Dodgers have carried since the Kansas City series.
Who is favored in Brewers vs Dodgers on August 13, 2026?
Los Angeles is favored at roughly 56.5c, an implied win probability near 57%. Milwaukee at 44c implies about 44%, despite owning the better record at 74-47 against the Dodgers at 72-48.
Where can I trade the Brewers vs Dodgers market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with moneyline, run line, game total, team totals and first-five-innings markets. The Dodgers moneyline is the deepest line on the board at roughly $6.3K of lifetime volume across the two venues.
What are the Brewers vs Dodgers run line and total?
The game total sits on 8.5 runs, with Over 8.5 at 49c and Over 9.5 at 39c on August 13, 2026. On the run line, Los Angeles at -1.5 trades at 38c and Milwaukee at -1.5 trades at 33c.
When does the Brewers vs Dodgers market resolve?
It resolves after the game goes final at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, August 13, 2026, with first pitch at 7:10 pm PT. Extra innings count, and the total and run line settle on the official final score.
What should I watch before Brewers vs Dodgers resolves?
Watch the Milwaukee lineup card after three straight losses in San Diego, and watch whether Sasaki holds the 4.54 ERA form that already has him priced below a typical Dodgers home number. A move through 60c on Los Angeles would signal a real lineup or bullpen development.