Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction Market Odds, August 5, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Padres | — | O 1 51%51% | 48%48% | 48% Kalshi |
▶Diamondbacks | — | U 1 49%49% | 53%52% | 53% Kalshi |
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Arizona is the 53c home favorite for game three of this four-game set at Chase Field, with San Diego at 47c and both books printing the identical number. The Diamondbacks (60-53, 32-22 at home) sit two games ahead of the Padres (58-55, 26-30 on the road) in the NL West, but San Diego arrives 8-2 in its last 10 while Arizona hands the ball to rookie Mitch Bratt (0-1, 5.23 ERA). The live board above carries the current cross-platform prices.
The market has this game close to a coin flip and is siding with home field. Arizona prints 53c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, San Diego prints 47c on both, and the two books have not moved a single cent apart on the moneyline. That 53c read sits almost exactly on ESPN's model number of 54.3% for the Diamondbacks. The more interesting question is what the price is not accounting for: San Diego is 8-2 across its last 10 games, and Arizona is starting a rookie who has walked more hitters than he has struck out this season.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Market Context
Arizona enters at 60-53, nine games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (69-44) in the NL West. San Diego is 58-55 and eleven back, two games behind Arizona in the same division. The venue split is the widest structural gap in the matchup: the Diamondbacks are 32-22 at Chase Field, the Padres 26-30 away from Petco. Everything else is close to a mirror. Arizona has scored 513 runs to San Diego's 473, hits .242 as a team with a .706 OPS against San Diego's .235 and .694, and carries a 4.18 team ERA against San Diego's 4.15. Two teams this evenly matched normally trade at even money, so the 6c gap on this board is almost entirely home field.
The board is two markets deep. The moneyline is the main event, and there is a separate yes or no contract on whether a run scores in the first inning, priced at 52c on Polymarket and 51c on Kalshi. No run line and no game total are posted here, so the moneyline and the first-inning contract are the only two ways to express a view. Kalshi flow is lopsided: roughly $2.6K of lifetime volume sits on the San Diego contract against about $140 on the Arizona contract, so the book is positioned with the underdog even though the price sits with the home team.
The line has round-tripped. Arizona opened this snapshot window at 55c on Kalshi early on August 3, eased to 52c through the middle of that session, spiked to 57c in the evening, held 56c overnight, and settled at 53c on the most recent read. Net move from the open is 2c lower after a 5c round trip. The San Diego side is noisier because the book is thin, printing anywhere between 44c and 53c on Kalshi across the same window before landing at 47c. Polymarket has been steadier, printing 47c on each of its last five snapshots.
There is nothing to arbitrage across platforms on the moneyline. Kalshi and Polymarket both show 53c Arizona and 47c San Diego, and both legs carry verified pairing status. The only daylight on the entire board is the 1c gap on the first-inning market, where Polymarket's 52c is a tick richer than Kalshi's 51c. When two books converge this tightly on a game carrying this little volume, the price is being anchored by a model rather than pushed by flow, which is worth knowing before treating 53c as a consensus of informed money.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup
Arizona's listed starter is Mitch Bratt, and his line is the reason this game prices closer to a coin flip than the home split alone would suggest. The rookie is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA across five starts and 20.2 innings, with 12 strikeouts against 15 walks and a 1.84 WHIP. A starter issuing more free passes than punchouts is a short-outing risk, which pushes the game into Arizona's bullpen earlier than the Diamondbacks want. Arizona has 29 saves on the season, so the back end is functional, but the innings math is not in its favor.
San Diego had not posted a probable starter as of August 4. Michael King opened the series on August 3 and took the loss in a 5-1 defeat despite the best season line in the rotation, 6-8 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 130.1 innings. Walker Buehler (6-5, 5.18 ERA) is lined up for the August 6 finale, which points the August 5 assignment toward the back of the rotation. Until San Diego names an arm, the 47c side carries an unresolved variable that the Arizona side does not, and that is the most likely source of movement between now and first pitch.
The lineups are near-identical on paper. Ketel Marte leads Arizona with 19 home runs and 62 RBIs, and Gabriel Moreno leads the club at .298 but is listed day-to-day. Manny Machado leads San Diego with 23 home runs and 65 RBIs, with Fernando Tatis Jr. hitting .283. Arizona also has Michael Soroka, Jordan Lawlar, and Drey Jameson on the injured list; San Diego is without Nick Pivetta and Lucas Giolito, which is part of why the back of its rotation is the question mark here. The August 3 result, a 5-1 Arizona win, was the first game of the four, and Arizona leads the series 1-0. Compare that opener on the August 3 board.
When the Padres vs Diamondbacks Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves on the final score of the game at Chase Field on August 5, 2026, scheduled for 9:40 pm ET. Kalshi carries the game under ticker KXMLBGAME-26AUG052140SDAZ with one contract per team, and Polymarket lists the same two-sided market. Winning team contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side settles at zero. The first-inning contract resolves yes if either team scores in the top or bottom of the first, and settles as soon as the second inning begins.
Key Padres vs Diamondbacks Catalysts
Arizona's starter: Mitch Bratt is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP, and 15 walks against 12 strikeouts over five starts and 20.2 innings.
San Diego's unnamed arm: no probable posted as of August 4, the single largest unpriced variable on the 47c side.
The venue split: Arizona is 32-22 at Chase Field, San Diego 26-30 on the road, which is most of the 6c gap.
Form divergence: San Diego is 8-2 in its last 10, Arizona 6-4, and the market is not paying for it.
Line behavior: the Arizona moneyline opened at 55c, touched 57c, and settled back to 53c, a full round trip inside 24 hours.
Related Padres vs Diamondbacks Markets
The division context runs through both clubs' futures. San Diego's postseason path trades on the Padres 2026 playoff odds board and Arizona's on the Diamondbacks 2026 playoff odds board, and with the two separated by two games in the NL West standings, head-to-head results in this series move both. The Padres season win total is the longer-dated expression of the same question. For the rest of the slate, the MLB games today board lists every game with live cross-platform prices, and the baseball hub collects the league's futures and daily markets in one place.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix on August 5, 2026, scheduled for 9:40 pm ET. Each team contract pays $1 per share if that team wins and settles at zero otherwise, with settlement driven by the official final score once the game is complete. The separate first-inning contract resolves yes if at least one run is scored by either team in the first inning and no otherwise, settling at the start of the second inning. If the game is postponed or suspended, both platforms follow their own rules for rescheduled games, typically settling on the completed contest if it is played within the same series window and voiding if it is not played at all.
Key Factors
- Arizona probable Mitch Bratt: 0-1, 5.23 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 15 walks against 12 strikeouts in five starts
- San Diego has not named a probable starter, the largest unpriced variable on the 47c side
- Venue split: Arizona 32-22 at Chase Field versus San Diego 26-30 on the road
- Form divergence: San Diego 8-2 over its last 10, Arizona 6-4
- Moneyline round trip: Arizona opened at 55c, touched 57c, and settled at 53c
- Zero cross-platform spread on the moneyline, with a 1c Polymarket premium on the first-inning market
What are the current Padres vs Diamondbacks odds?
Arizona is the 53c favorite and San Diego is 47c for the August 5, 2026 game at Chase Field, with Kalshi and Polymarket printing identical numbers on both sides. The first-inning run market trades at 52c on Polymarket and 51c on Kalshi.
Who is favored in Padres vs Diamondbacks on August 5, 2026?
The Diamondbacks, at 53c, which implies about a 53% chance of a home win. ESPN's matchup model has Arizona at 54.3%, so the market and the model sit within about one point of each other.
Where can I trade the Padres vs Diamondbacks market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket carry the moneyline and the first-inning contract for this game. The Kalshi ticker is KXMLBGAME-26AUG052140SDAZ, and both legs are verified cross-platform pairs, so the board prices reflect two books rather than one.
When does the Padres vs Diamondbacks market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final at Chase Field on August 5, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 pm ET. Both platforms settle the moneyline on the official final score.
What should I watch before Padres vs Diamondbacks resolves?
San Diego's probable starter announcement is the biggest one, since Arizona has already listed Mitch Bratt (0-1, 5.23 ERA) and the Padres side is still blank as of August 4, 2026. Also watch Gabriel Moreno's day-to-day status for Arizona and whether the 53c line holds after opening at 55c.