Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction Market Odds, August 13, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mariners | +1.5 61%61% | O 1 47%44% | 32%32% | 32% Kalshi |
â–¶Yankees | -1.5 39%39% | U 1 53%56% | 33%33% | 33% Kalshi |
New York is the 57.5c consensus favorite (58c Kalshi, 57c Polymarket) in the Thursday finale at Yankee Stadium, and that number has firmed on every day of this series after opening the set at 55c. The Yankees are 68-52 and have already taken the first two games 4-1 and 10-5, while Seattle is 56-65, has lost five straight and is 23-36 on the road. Max Fried (2.88 ERA) opposes Logan Gilbert (3.42 ERA) in the tightest starter matchup of the three games, and the board carries roughly $38.5K in cumulative volume with the two platforms sitting within 1c of each other on the moneyline.
New York is the 57.5c consensus favorite (58c Kalshi, 57c Polymarket) for the Thursday finale at Yankee Stadium, and the number has firmed on every day of this series. The Yankees opened the set at 55c, sat at 55c for game two, and now trade at 58c after winning the first two 4-1 and 10-5. That is a three-game drift in one direction while the roster the market is pricing has not gotten any healthier, which makes this a read on Seattle's collapse more than on New York's health.
Mariners vs Yankees Market Context
New York is 68-52, second in the American League East and 6 games behind Tampa Bay (74-46). The Yankees are 31-26 at home and 37-26 on the road, an unusual split for a first-division club, and they have won four of their last five. Seattle arrives at 56-65, third in the American League West and 5.5 games behind Houston (62-60), on a five-game losing streak and carrying a 23-36 road record. New York leads the current series 2-0 and the season series 4-1.
The injury column is the reason this price is worth reading twice. New York is without Aaron Judge (60-day injured list, rib fracture, estimated return August 25), Giancarlo Stanton (10-day, calf), Cody Bellinger (10-day, hamstring), Carlos Rodon (15-day, elbow) and Clarke Schmidt (60-day, elbow). That is the top of the order plus two rotation pieces. The market has still pushed the Yankees from 55c to 58c across three days, which says traders are pricing the opponent rather than the absences. Ben Rice has carried the offense with 32 home runs and 75 runs batted in, and Cam Schlittler leads the staff at 2.21 with 182 strikeouts.
Seattle is not intact either. J.P. Crawford is on the 10-day list with wrist inflammation, Luke Raley is out into late September with a forearm strain, and Matt Brash is on the 15-day list with a lat issue. Randy Arozarena leads the club at .276 with 52 runs batted in and Julio Rodriguez leads it with 19 home runs, a modest power profile for a lineup asked to win a getaway day game in the Bronx.
The two books agree on this game to a degree that is itself information. Kalshi has the Yankees at 58c and Polymarket has them at 57c, a 1c gap, and both have Seattle at 43c. The run line and total sit inside 1c as well. The board carries roughly $38.5K in cumulative volume, and effectively all of the moneyline flow is on one venue: about $34K on Kalshi against roughly $500 on Polymarket. When a thin book agrees with a deep book to the cent, the deep book is doing the price discovery and the thin one is following.
Mariners vs Yankees Pitching Matchup
Max Fried takes the ball for New York at 4-3 with a 2.88 earned run average, a 0.97 walks plus hits per inning pitched mark and 75 strikeouts across 81.1 innings in 14 starts. The start total is the tell: it is mid-August and Fried is on his 15th outing, so his innings have been managed. Logan Gilbert answers at 8-7 with a 3.42 earned run average, a 1.00 mark in the same ratio stat and 145 strikeouts across 139.1 innings in 23 starts. Gilbert leads Seattle in both wins and strikeouts and has been the club's most durable arm.
On raw run prevention this is the tightest starter pairing of the three games, and the total reflects it. Over 8.5 runs prices at 44.5c consensus (45c Kalshi, 44c Polymarket), Over 7.5 sits at 52c on Kalshi and 53c on Polymarket, and DraftKings has moved its number from 7.5 up to 8. The team totals lean New York by a narrow margin: the Yankees over 3.5 runs trades at 56c against Seattle over 3.5 at 49c, a 7c edge that maps closely to the moneyline gap.
The derivative markets are where the shape of the read shows up. New York at -1.5 on the run line prices at 39c on Kalshi and 38c on Polymarket, a 19c discount to the 58c moneyline, so the board is paying for a win far more than for a comfortable one. The first five innings market is the cleanest expression of the starter matchup: New York leading after five trades at 49c, Seattle at 35c, and tied at 16c on Polymarket. A run in the first inning prices at 44c on both books.
When the Mariners vs Yankees Market Resolves
The game is scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2026, with first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game, and every contract settles once the game is official and final on the scheduled date. The run line settles on the final margin, the full-game total settles on combined runs scored by both teams, and the first five innings markets settle on the score after the top and bottom of the fifth. Rain-shortened, suspended and postponed games follow each platform's published game rules, which is a live consideration for a single afternoon start with no scheduled makeup window in this series.
Key Mariners vs Yankees Catalysts
Yankees injury column: Judge (rib fracture, 60-day list, estimated return August 25), Stanton, Bellinger, Rodon and Schmidt are all out, and the market has firmed anyway.
Starter matchup: Fried at 2.88 with a 0.97 ratio against Gilbert at 3.42 with a 1.00 ratio is the tightest pairing of the series.
Seattle's road profile: 23-36 away from T-Mobile Park, five straight losses, and 5.5 games back in the American League West.
Cross-platform agreement: Kalshi 58c and Polymarket 57c on the Yankees, with roughly $34K of moneyline volume on Kalshi against about $500 on Polymarket.
Run line discount: the Yankees at -1.5 trade 19c below the moneyline, so the board is pricing a win, not a blowout.
Total drift: Over 8.5 at 44.5c consensus with the sportsbook number already moved from 7.5 to 8.
Related Mariners vs Yankees Markets
The previous game in this series is the direct comparison for how this line has moved across three days. The MLB market hub tracks every league board across both platforms, and today's MLB slate lists the full day of games with live cross-platform prices. Both club pages, New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners, carry the rest of each team's active boards.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves on the outcome of Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game, with each winning contract paying $1 per share and the losing side settling at $0. The run line settles on the final margin of victory, the full-game total settles on combined runs scored by both teams, and the first five innings markets settle on the score after the completed fifth inning. Settlement occurs once the game is official and final on the scheduled date, using the platforms own published game rules for rain-shortened, suspended, postponed or canceled games.
Key Factors
- Aaron Judge on the 60-day injured list with a rib fracture, estimated return August 25, alongside Stanton, Bellinger, Rodon and Schmidt
- Max Fried (2.88 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 14 starts) against Logan Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 145 strikeouts, 23 starts)
- Seattle 23-36 on the road, on a five-game losing streak and 5.5 games back of Houston in the American League West
- Kalshi at 58c and Polymarket at 57c on the Yankees, with roughly $34K of moneyline volume on Kalshi against about $500 on Polymarket
- Yankees run line (-1.5) at 39c Kalshi and 38c Polymarket, a 19c discount to the moneyline
- Over 8.5 runs at 44.5c consensus after the sportsbook total moved from 7.5 to 8
What are the current Mariners vs Yankees odds?
As of August 13, 2026, New York is the 57.5c consensus favorite, priced at 58c on Kalshi and 57c on Polymarket. Seattle trades at 43c on both platforms.
Who is favored in Mariners vs Yankees and by what implied probability?
New York is favored. The 57.5c consensus price implies roughly a 58% chance of a Yankees win on August 13, 2026, while ESPN matchup model has New York at 64.8%.
Where does the Mariners vs Yankees market trade?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the moneyline, run line and totals for this game. Kalshi holds roughly $34K of the moneyline volume against about $500 on Polymarket, so Kalshi is the price-discovery venue here.
What are the Mariners vs Yankees run line and total?
The Yankees at -1.5 price at 39c on Kalshi and 38c on Polymarket as of August 13, 2026. Over 8.5 runs sits at 44.5c consensus (45c Kalshi, 44c Polymarket) and Over 7.5 at 52c on Kalshi.
When does the Mariners vs Yankees market resolve?
First pitch is 1:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, August 13, 2026 at Yankee Stadium. Contracts settle once the game goes final on the scheduled date.
What should traders watch before the Mariners vs Yankees game starts?
The posted lineup card is the main input, given Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger are all out. Fried workload after only 14 starts and Seattle response to a five-game losing streak are the other two variables.