Mavericks vs Spurs Prediction Market Odds, November 4, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Mavericks | +12.5 49%51% | O 229.5 50%45% | 19%18% | 19% Kalshi |
▶Spurs | -12.5 51%49% | U 229.5 50%55% | 83%83% | 83% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Dallas Mavericks | +12.5 | O 229.5 | 19% Kalshi | |
▶San Antonio Spurs | -12.5 | U 229.5 | 83% Kalshi |
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San Antonio is a heavy favorite at home against Dallas, with Kalshi and Polymarket pricing the Spurs within a point of each other. The Spurs (5-2) have won five straight, including a 16-point win in Dallas on October 24, and the Mavericks (4-3) come in off a home loss to Sacramento with Kyrie Irving and Max Christie day-to-day. Tip-off is 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Frost Bank Center, on a board with roughly $31K in cumulative volume. The live board above carries current moneyline, spread and total prices.
San Antonio is a heavy home favorite over Dallas, and both prediction markets agree on the size of it: Kalshi and Polymarket price the Spurs within a point of each other in the low-to-mid 80s as of November 3. The Spurs (5-2) have won five straight, including a 122-106 win in Dallas on October 24, while the Mavericks (4-3) come in off a 115-100 home loss to a Sacramento team that had not won a game. Tip-off is 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at Frost Bank Center, on ESPN.
Mavericks vs Spurs Market Context
The Spurs opened 0-2 with home losses to Oklahoma City (116-104) and Houston (114-110), then won five in a row: at Dallas 122-106, Sacramento 130-103, at Utah 117-111 in overtime, Minnesota 121-111 and Utah 119-97 on November 2. They are 3-2 at home and 2-0 on the road. Victor Wembanyama leads them at 25.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game per ESPN, and De'Aaron Fox leads in assists at 6.4. Tobias Harris (left calf strain) has yet to debut and is listed out, as is Jayden Quaintance (knee), per ESPN's injury report as of November 3.
The Mavericks are 4-3, 2-2 at home and 2-1 on the road. Cooper Flagg leads them at 25.2 points, 6.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game, and P.J. Washington leads in rebounds at 7.7. The availability list is long. Kyrie Irving (left knee) is listed day-to-day after being ruled out of the November 2 loss to Sacramento, and Max Christie (right hip) left that game and is day-to-day, both as of November 3 per ESPN. Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery), Santi Aldama (right knee surgery recovery, no season debut yet), Tarik Biberovic (right heel) and Sergio de Larrea (knee) are listed out.
ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives San Antonio an 84.6% win probability, in line with the two prediction markets. San Antonio leads the four-game season series 1-0.
What the Mavericks vs Spurs Spread and Total Say
The spread ladder centers between 12.5 and 13.5 points. Spurs minus 12.5 trades at 51% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, and minus 13.5 at 51% and 47%, while minus 11.5 sits at 56% and 53%. DraftKings, per ESPN's odds feed, posts San Antonio minus 12.5 with the Spurs at minus 650 on the moneyline. Across the middle of the ladder Polymarket prices a Spurs cover three to five points cheaper than Kalshi (minus 9.5 at 59% against 64%, minus 15.5 at 41% against 45%), so Polymarket is the cheaper venue for San Antonio laying points and Kalshi is the cheaper venue for Dallas taking them.
The total centers near 230. The over at 229.5 trades at 50% on Kalshi and 45% on Polymarket, the over at 233.5 at 46% and 41%, and DraftKings posts 229.5. Kalshi's team totals put Dallas over 106.5 points at 56% and over 110.5 at 38%, and San Antonio over 126.5 at 33%.
On movement, Genius intraday captures start at 11:45 AM ET on November 2 with Kalshi pricing San Antonio at 78% and Polymarket at 80%. Both venues dipped to 77% around 10:40 PM ET that night, then moved to 83% to 85% after midnight, following Dallas's home loss to Sacramento, and Kalshi touched 86% overnight. As of the morning of November 3 the Spurs trade at 83% on Kalshi and 84% on Polymarket, with Dallas at 18% and 17%. Polymarket's daily closes show the Spurs at 79% to 82% from October 29 through October 31 before a dip to 74% on November 1. Cumulative board volume is roughly $31K.
When the Mavericks vs Spurs Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with tip-off at 9:30 PM ET. Overtime counts. Spread and total contracts settle against the official final score once the game goes final, and both platforms typically settle within hours.
Key Mavericks vs Spurs Catalysts
Dallas guard availability: Irving (left knee) and Christie (right hip) are day-to-day as of November 3, with Lively, Aldama, Biberovic and de Larrea out.
San Antonio's streak: five straight wins since an 0-2 start, including a 16-point win in Dallas on October 24.
The 12.5-point line: Spurs minus 12.5 trades at 51% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, matching the DraftKings number.
Venue split on the spread: Polymarket prices Spurs covers three to five points cheaper than Kalshi across the middle of the ladder.
Wembanyama against the Dallas frontcourt: 25.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game against a Mavericks roster without Lively.
Related Mavericks vs Spurs Markets
The result feeds the Spurs make-the-playoffs market and the Mavericks make-the-playoffs market, and both teams sit in the Western Conference champion market and the West 1 seed market. Wembanyama's line connects to the NBA MVP market and the Defensive Player of the Year market. The NBA hub lists the rest of the November 4 slate.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs game at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, with tip-off scheduled for 9:30 PM ET on ESPN. Overtime counts toward the result. The winning team's moneyline contract pays $1 per share and the losing team's resolves to $0. Spread contracts settle against the official final score margin and total contracts settle against the combined official final score, using the league's official box score as the source of truth. If the game is postponed, contracts settle on the rescheduled completion under each platform's rules; if it is canceled, each platform applies its own void and refund rules.
Key Factors
- Dallas availability: Kyrie Irving (left knee) and Max Christie (right hip) day-to-day as of November 3, with Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic and Sergio de Larrea out
- San Antonio has won five straight after an 0-2 start, including 122-106 in Dallas on October 24
- Spurs minus 12.5 trades at 51% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, matching the DraftKings line
- Polymarket prices Spurs spread covers three to five points cheaper than Kalshi across the middle of the ladder
- Total near 230: over 229.5 at 50% on Kalshi and 45% on Polymarket, DraftKings at 229.5
- Victor Wembanyama at 25.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game against a Dallas frontcourt without Lively
What are the current Mavericks vs Spurs odds?
As of November 3, 2026, San Antonio is the favorite at 83% on Kalshi and 84% on Polymarket, with Dallas at 18% and 17%. The live board above carries current prices, which move up to tip-off.
What is the spread and total for Mavericks vs Spurs?
Spurs minus 12.5 trades at 51% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, so the market centers on a 12.5 to 13.5 point San Antonio win. The over at 229.5 trades at 50% on Kalshi and 45% on Polymarket, and DraftKings posts Spurs minus 12.5 and 229.5 per ESPN.
Where can I trade the Mavericks vs Spurs game?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $31K in cumulative volume. Kalshi lists the moneyline under KXNBAGAME-26NOV04DALSAS with spread, total and team-total ladders, and Polymarket carries matching moneyline, spread and total lines.
How have the Mavericks vs Spurs odds moved?
Kalshi priced San Antonio at 78% and Polymarket at 80% on the morning of November 2. After Dallas lost at home to Sacramento that night, both venues moved to 83% to 85%, and the Spurs sat at 83% and 84% on the morning of November 3.
When does the Mavericks vs Spurs market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, after a 9:30 PM ET tip-off at Frost Bank Center on ESPN. Overtime counts, and both platforms typically settle within hours of the final buzzer.