| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶FMSU | — | — | — | — |
▶DAY | — | — | 90% | 90% Kalshi |
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Dayton is the 90c side on Kalshi for its August 29, 2026 opener against Fairmont State, a Pioneer Football League host drawing a Division II Mountain East visitor. That 90c is a last-trade print off a single filled share, and the board carries $1 of lifetime volume on one platform with the Fairmont State leg still untraded. The durable backing for the price is 2025 form: Dayton finished 7-4 and allowed 17.4 points per game, while Fairmont State went 6-5 and allowed 33.9. See the live board above for the current mark.
Dayton opens the 2026 season at home against a Division II opponent, and Kalshi has priced that gap about the way the schedule implies. The Dayton moneyline last traded at 90c, the Fairmont State side has never traded, and the whole board carries $1 of lifetime volume across a single platform. That is a directional read on a mismatch, not a market with depth behind it, and it should be treated as such.
Kalshi lists both sides of the game and Polymarket does not carry it at all, so there is no cross-platform comparison available on this matchup. The Dayton contract is the only leg with a trade behind it: the API reports its 90c mark as a last-trade print, sourced from one filled share. The Fairmont State contract returns no price at all on the board, which is the honest render for a leg with zero volume, and it is why the two sides do not sum to 100c the way a two-sided board would.
The snapshot series makes the thinness explicit. The Dayton leg sat at a 49c to 50c placeholder mark across its first three captures after the market opened early on August 26, then printed 90c on the board's only trade and has held 90c across the nine captures since. That is one trade doing all of the price discovery. Read the 90c as the market's first stated view of a Pioneer Football League team hosting a Mountain East Conference team, not as a number a book of size has defended.
Dayton finished 7-4 in 2025 and 5-3 against Pioneer Football League opponents, outscoring the schedule 306-191, or 27.8 points per game against 17.4 allowed. Defense was the identity. The Flyers shut out Thomas More 38-0, held Valparaiso to 10 in a 41-10 win, and won 17-14 at Robert Morris. Their four losses were offensive failures rather than defensive collapses, including 6-14 at home to Drake and 13-31 at San Diego in November, plus a 14-24 season-opening loss at Eastern Illinois.
Fairmont State went 6-5 and 4-4 against Mountain East Conference opponents, with a scoring ledger sitting almost exactly at break-even: 365 points scored, 373 allowed, or 33.2 and 33.9 per game. That is the inverse of Dayton's profile. The Falcons won 41-40 over Bloomsburg and 45-44 at West Liberty, then lost 39-60 at West Virginia State and 24-36 at Glenville State. Five of their eleven games were decided by 7 points or fewer, and they closed the season with an 18-35 home loss to Frostburg State.
The structural read the 90c price is expressing: Dayton allowed 17.4 points per game last season, Fairmont State scored 33.2 and gave up 33.9, and the game is at Welcome Stadium. Neither program returns a 2026 record yet, since this is each team's opener, so every number on this page is 2025 final data and should be read that way.
The game kicks off at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Welcome Stadium in Dayton, Ohio, with a YouTube stream as the listed broadcast. Both ESPN's scoreboard and Dayton's own athletics schedule publish that 12:00 PM ET start; the Kalshi contract metadata carries a later 3:00 PM ET occurrence stamp, so trade off the time the school and ESPN agree on. The market settles on the official final result, with Kalshi's contract expiration set for August 31, 2026.
Board depth: the board holds $1 of lifetime volume and one filled trade, so a single order can move the printed price several cents.
Single-platform pricing: Kalshi is the only venue carrying this game, so there is no second book to check the 90c mark against.
Untraded underdog leg: the Fairmont State contract has taken no volume and returns no price, which is why the two legs do not sum to 100c.
Division gap: Dayton is a Pioneer Football League program in the FCS hosting a Division II Mountain East opponent, the structural fact the 90c is pricing.
2025 scoring profiles: Dayton allowed 17.4 points per game and Fairmont State allowed 33.9, the widest single gap between these two teams on paper.
Opener uncertainty: both teams are 0-0 with no 2026 result to price off, so roster turnover on either side is unmodeled by the market.
Three of Dayton's 2025 Pioneer League opponents open the same weekend and trade on the same board format. Valparaiso, which Dayton beat 41-10, hosts Lawrence Tech in the Lawrence Tech at Valparaiso market. Stetson, a 48-14 Dayton loss in 2025, draws a much larger board as the visitor at South Dakota State in the Stetson at South Dakota State market. Drake, the team that beat Dayton 14-6 last November, hosts South Dakota Mines in the South Dakota Mines at Drake market. The Concord at Davidson market is the closest structural comparison on the slate, pairing a Mountain East visitor Fairmont State beat 31-17 in 2025 against another Pioneer League host. The full slate is on the NCAA football hub.
The market resolves to the team that wins the Fairmont State vs Dayton college football game scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Welcome Stadium in Dayton, Ohio, with a 12:00 PM ET kickoff. Each side is a separate binary contract on Kalshi: the Dayton contract pays $1 per share if Dayton wins and $0 if it does not, and the Fairmont State contract is the mirror. Kalshi settles on the official final result once a winner is declared, with contract expiration listed for August 31, 2026. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its scheduled start, the market stays open and settles on the official final. If it is cancelled or has not started within 48 hours of the scheduled start, Kalshi resolves the contracts to a fair price. Polymarket does not list this game, so Kalshi is the sole settlement venue.
As of August 26, 2026, Dayton last traded at 90c on Kalshi, implying roughly a 90% chance it wins. The Fairmont State contract has taken no volume and returns no price on the board. Check the live board above for the current mark.
Kalshi only, under the college football game event for August 29, 2026. Polymarket does not list this matchup, so there is no cross-platform price to compare.
Dayton, at a 90c last-trade price and roughly 90% implied probability. Dayton is the FCS Pioneer Football League host and Fairmont State is a Division II Mountain East program, and Dayton allowed 17.4 points per game in 2025 against Fairmont State's 33.9.
It settles on the final score of the game, which kicks off at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Welcome Stadium in Dayton, Ohio. Kalshi lists contract expiration for August 31, 2026.
$1 of lifetime volume across one trade, which is thin even by Week 1 small-school standards. That is normal for a Division II versus FCS opener and it means the 90c print should be read as a first stated view rather than a defended price. Watch whether real two-sided volume arrives closer to Saturday morning.
Dayton finished 7-4 overall and 5-3 against Pioneer Football League opponents, outscoring its schedule 306-191. Fairmont State finished 6-5 and 4-4 against Mountain East Conference opponents, scoring 365 points and allowing 373.