| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
FUR | — | — | 0% | — |
Tennessee | — | — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
FUR | — | — | 0% | — |
Tennessee | — | — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
Tennessee opens its 2026 season against Furman at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 5 at Neyland Stadium, and the Kalshi board prices it as a formality: as of September 2 the Volunteers trade at 100c and the Paladins at 2c. Tennessee finished 8-5 last season and averaged 40.8 points per game in the 2025 regular season, while Furman went 6-6 in the Southern Conference and allowed 31.0 per game. Roughly $41.1K has traded here. The live board above carries the current prices.
Tennessee opens the 2026 season against Furman at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 5 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, with SECN+ carrying the stream. This is a scheduled FBS-over-FCS game and the market treats it that way. Tennessee, No. 20 in the AP preseason poll, went 8-5 last season and put up 40.8 points per game across the twelve-game regular season. Furman went 6-6 and gave up 31.0 points per game against a Southern Conference schedule. About $41.1K has traded across the two moneyline contracts. The question worth asking on this board is not who wins, it is what a two-cent longshot is actually paying for.
This board is Kalshi-only. There is no Polymarket leg on either side, so nothing here is a cross-platform consensus and there is no second book to price against. Kalshi lists a single moneyline market with two contracts, no spread and no total, which means the only tradeable question is the winner.
The pricing is as one-sided as the format allows. As of the last capture on September 2, Tennessee is at 100c and Furman at 2c. The volume split is the more revealing number: the Furman contract carries $26.6K in lifetime volume against $14.5K on Tennessee. That is normal on a body-bag board. There is almost no reason to pay 100c for a dollar, so the money that moves goes to the side with room to run, and the longshot leg becomes the more actively traded contract on a board nobody expects to be close.
Line movement is limited by what the board has captured. Between the first snapshot on September 1 at 2:03 PM ET and the latest on September 2 at 1:19 PM ET, the Furman contract printed 2c on twenty captures, dropped to 1c across five captures between 9:14 AM and 11:39 AM ET on September 2, and returned to 2c on the two most recent reads. Tennessee registered 100c on every capture in that window. That one-cent oscillation is the entire price history this board carries, so no claim here extends past those two days.
The 2025 tape gives the cleanest read on the gap. Tennessee and Furman shared an opponent: Tennessee beat East Tennessee State 72-17 on September 6, 2025, and Furman beat the same East Tennessee State team 31-22 on October 4. Furman's own FBS game last season was a 45-10 loss at Clemson on November 22. Tennessee's most recent look at an FCS opponent was that 72-point afternoon.
Recent form cuts against the Volunteers slightly and does not touch the price. Tennessee lost three of its last four in 2025, falling 33-27 to Oklahoma, 45-24 to Vanderbilt, and 30-28 to Illinois in its bowl game, with a 31-11 win at Florida in between. Furman is 1-0 in 2026 after a 20-3 win over Anderson (SC) on August 27, an opener in which quarterback Jake Garcia went 15 of 28 for 183 yards with an interception, running back CJ Nettles carried 10 times for 99 yards, and receiver Daniel Haughton caught 5 passes for 87 yards. Twenty points is a thin offensive output to bring into Neyland Stadium.
The Kalshi board has no spread or total leg, so the reference points come from outside it. DraftKings, via ESPN, has Tennessee at -46.5 with a total of 66.5, which implies a projected score near 56.5 to 10. ESPN's own Matchup Predictor puts Tennessee at 99.6% and Furman at 0.4%. Kalshi's 100c and 2c sit right on top of that estimate rather than fighting it.
That agreement is the point. A 46.5-point number is the market saying the competitive phase of this game ends early, and the total of 66.5 says the projected margin comes from Tennessee scoring rather than from a shootout. The reader-facing consequence is straightforward: Tennessee's starters are the variable, not the outcome. A -46.5 line assumes meaningful backup snaps in the second half, and every point scored after the starters leave counts toward the total the same as the first-quarter points do.
For Tennessee specifically, the useful information from this game is the offensive baseline. The Volunteers put 40.8 points per game on the board in 2025 and allowed 28.8, a scoring profile that carried them to eight regular-season wins but also to losses in three of their last four. A season opener against an FCS team with a 31.0 points-allowed average tells you how the line and the run game look in live snaps, one week before Tennessee travels to Georgia Tech on September 12 and three weeks before Texas visits Knoxville on September 26.
The market resolves to the team that wins the game at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, September 5, 2026, scheduled for 3:30 PM ET. Each winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing contract settles at $0. There is no draw outcome in college football, so overtime resolves the market the same way regulation does. Kalshi settles once the game goes final on the scheduled date; a postponement or cancellation is handled under the platform's own game rules rather than by score at the time of stoppage.
Starter snap count: DraftKings has Tennessee at -46.5, so how long the first-team offense stays on the field is the difference between a cover and a backdoor push toward the 66.5 total.
Furman's offensive output: the Paladins scored 20 points against Anderson (SC) in Week 1 and 10 at Clemson last November, the two most relevant data points for what an FBS defense holds them to.
Shared-opponent gap: Tennessee beat East Tennessee State 72-17 in 2025 while Furman beat the same team 31-22, the cleanest available measure of the class difference.
Tennessee's finish to 2025: three losses in the last four games, including 30-28 to Illinois in the bowl, make the opener a read on whether the 40.8 points-per-game offense carried over.
Single-book pricing: with no Polymarket leg, the 100c and 2c quotes are one exchange's view, and the $26.6K of lifetime volume on the Furman side is where the board's activity actually sits.
Saturday's card has near-identical structure elsewhere: Tennessee State at Georgia carries the same -46.5 number on a top-three host, and East Carolina at Alabama is the SEC's other early-season mismatch on the same date. Texas State at Texas is worth tracking for a different reason, since Texas visits Knoxville on September 26 and is the first real measuring stick on Tennessee's schedule. Full cross-platform coverage for the week sits on the NCAA football board.
This market resolves to the team that wins the college football game between Furman and Tennessee at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday, September 5, 2026, scheduled for a 3:30 PM ET kickoff on SECN+. Each team contract pays $1 per share if that team wins and settles at $0 otherwise. College football has no draw outcome, so a game decided in overtime resolves exactly as a regulation result does. Kalshi settles the market once the game is final on the scheduled date, using the official final score. If the game is postponed, suspended, relocated, or canceled, settlement follows Kalshi's published game rules for that event rather than the score at the time of stoppage. This board lists moneyline contracts only; there are no spread or total legs to settle.
As of September 2, 2026, Kalshi has Tennessee at 100c and Furman at 2c on the moneyline. Roughly $41.1K has traded across the two contracts, with $26.6K of that on the Furman side.
It resolves on the winner of the game at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, September 5, 2026, scheduled for 3:30 PM ET. The winning contract pays $1 per share and the losing contract settles at $0.
Kalshi only. There is no Polymarket leg on this game, so the board carries a single book and a single moneyline market with no spread or total contracts.
Tennessee, at an implied 100% on Kalshi as of September 2, 2026. DraftKings has the Volunteers at -46.5 with a 66.5 total, and ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a 99.6% chance.
Tennessee's starter usage against a 46.5-point number, and Furman's scoring after managing 20 points against Anderson (SC) on August 27 and 10 points at Clemson last November. The game streams on SECN+.