| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶MRST | — | — | 52% | 52% Kalshi |
▶NHC | — | — | 50% | 50% Kalshi |
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Marist travels to New Haven for a 6:00 PM ET Friday opener on August 28, 2026, and Kalshi has it at 52c Marist and 50c New Haven, a 102c book that normalizes to roughly 51-49. Marist went 5-7 in 2025 but 1-5 on the road; New Haven went 5-5 and 4-0 at home, and lost the 2025 opener between these two 31-14. The board is Kalshi-only with $47 of lifetime volume, so read it as a wide band rather than a sharp number.
Marist vs New Haven opens the FCS Friday card at 6:00 PM ET on August 28, 2026 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in West Haven, Connecticut, and the prediction market has it priced about as close to even as a two-sided board gets. Kalshi lists Marist at 52c and New Haven at 50c, a 102c book that normalizes to roughly 51% Marist and 49% New Haven. Neither side has played a 2026 game, so every record below is a 2025 final and there are no standings to cite yet.
Marist closed 2025 at 5-7 overall and 3-5 in the Pioneer Football League, scoring 272 points and allowing 282 across 12 games. The split is the number that matters for a road opener: 4-2 at home, 1-5 away. The away schedule produced a 0-45 loss at St. Thomas, a 9-28 loss at Penn, a 21-23 loss at Morehead State and a 25-29 loss at Presbyterian, with the only road win a 21-10 result at Wagner.
New Haven finished 2025 at 5-5, with 279 points for and 286 against across 10 games, and posted an identical away split of 1-5 while going 4-0 at DellaCamera Stadium. The home ledger included a 69-0 shutout, a 35-28 win, a 28-14 win and a 41-31 win over Merrimack in the season finale. ESPN lists New Haven's 2025 conference record as 0-0 even though the schedule carried Northeast Conference opponents including Duquesne, LIU, Sacred Heart and Merrimack, so treat the NEC line on that team page as a scheduling artifact rather than a result.
These two opened against each other last season. On August 29, 2025 New Haven traveled to Marist and lost 31-14, which is the only head-to-head data point either side brings into Friday. The venue flips this year, and the home-and-road splits from 2025 point in opposite directions: the team that was 4-0 at home is the one the board has at 50c, and the team that was 1-5 on the road is the one at 52c.
The sportsbook market lands in the same place. DraftKings prices Marist at -1.5 with a moneyline of -116, New Haven at +1.5 and -107, and a total of 44.5 that opened at 43.5. Two independent price sources agreeing on a sub-two-point road favorite is the firmest read available on a game with this little public modeling behind it. On scoring rate, New Haven was the more productive offense in 2025 at 27.9 points per game against Marist's 22.7, and also the leakier defense at 28.6 allowed to 23.5. A 44.5 total sits under the 50.5 combined per-game average of the two 2025 profiles, which is consistent with a market discounting last year's numbers for a Week 1 sample.
The board carries a snapshot series covering roughly the last 24 hours, with the first capture on August 25 and the latest on August 26. Marist entered that window at 53c, printed 56c twice, bottomed at 51c and sits at 52c now. New Haven held 52c through most of the window and ticked down to 50c on the most recent capture. That is a 5c band on one leg and a 3c band on the other with no directional trend, and there is no series before August 25, so no longer-dated open exists to measure against.
Volume explains the chop. The Marist leg's 24-hour volume ran down from about $23 to roughly $4 across the window, and lifetime volume is $36 on the Marist side and $12 on the New Haven side for $47 across the whole board. Polymarket does not list this game, so the board is Kalshi-only and there is no cross-platform comparison to make here. A single-book quote on an FCS Week 1 game is the normal state of this market, not a defect, but the prices move on very small size and should be read as a wide band rather than a precise number. The board also carries moneyline only, with no spread or total market listed on Kalshi, so the 44.5 total referenced above comes from the sportsbook side and not from this page's board.
Kalshi resolves each contract Yes if that team wins the Marist vs New Haven game originally scheduled for August 28, 2026. The listed expiration is August 30, 2026, with expected expiration shortly after the final whistle, and Kalshi's early-close condition shuts the market once a winner is declared, on a 90-second settlement timer. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the scheduled kickoff, the market stays open and settles on the official final result. If it is cancelled or has not started within 48 hours, the contracts resolve to a fair price rather than paying either side.
The same Friday evening window carries Colgate at Fordham, another FCS Northeast opener kicking at 6:00 PM ET. New Haven's conference is represented a day earlier by LIU at North Dakota, and Marist's Pioneer Football League by Concord at Davidson, a team Marist beat 37-10 in 2025. For the top of the sport, the College Football National Champion 2026-27 board and the conference champion market both trade all season, and every live game board sits on the NCAA football hub.
Each contract resolves Yes for the team that wins the Marist vs New Haven college football game originally scheduled for Friday, August 28, 2026 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium in West Haven, Connecticut, with the losing team's contract resolving to zero. Kalshi lists expiration on August 30, 2026 and closes the market early once a winner is declared, on a 90-second settlement timer. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start, the market stays open and settles on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or has not started within 48 hours of the scheduled start, the contracts resolve to a fair price instead of paying either side.
As of August 26, 2026, Kalshi has Marist at 52c and New Haven at 50c. The two legs sum to 102c, which normalizes to about 51% Marist and 49% New Haven.
Kalshi lists both sides under event ticker KXNCAAFGAME-26AUG28MRSTNHC. Polymarket does not carry this game, so the board is single-book with $47 of lifetime volume across both legs.
Marist is the marginal favorite at 52c, implying roughly 51% after removing the 2c overround. DraftKings agrees, pricing Marist at -1.5 and -116 on the moneyline.
It resolves on the final result of the game, which kicks at 6:00 PM ET on Friday, August 28, 2026 at Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium. Kalshi lists expiration on August 30, 2026 and closes early once a winner is declared.
Watch whether the 52c Marist price holds into Friday. New Haven went 4-0 at home in 2025 and Marist went 1-5 on the road, so any move toward the home side would be the market pricing that split, and with only $47 of lifetime volume a single order can move the quote several cents.