| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Navy | +9.5 — | O 40.5 — | 0% | — |
Atlantic | -9.5 — | U 40.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Navy | +9.5 — | O 40.5 — | 0% | — |
Florida Atlantic | -9.5 — | U 40.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Navy vs Florida Atlantic is the American Conference opener for both programs, kicking off at 7:30 PM ET on September 12, 2026 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton on ESPNU. Navy arrives 1-0 after a 42-15 win over Towson; Florida Atlantic is 0-1 after a 66-21 loss at Florida. The board has Navy as the road favorite at a spread of 4.5 points with a full-game total around 58.5, and roughly $37.4K in lifetime volume sits across the moneyline, spread and total. The live board above carries the current prices.
Navy opened its season by running for 506 yards against Towson and winning 42-15, and Florida Atlantic opened its season by surrendering 624 yards in a 66-21 loss at Florida. Those two results are the whole pricing story for the September 12, 2026 American Conference opener in Boca Raton. Navy is the road favorite at roughly 66% on the moneyline as of September 11, 2026, but the spread sits at just 4.5 points, which is the market saying Navy is better without saying Navy is safe. The most-traded line on this board is not the moneyline at all.
Navy went 10-2 in the 2025 regular season and closed it by beating Army 17-16 on December 13, 2025. Florida Atlantic went 4-8. The two met once last year, at Navy on October 25, 2025, and Navy won 42-32, a 74-point game that is directly relevant to how this total is priced.
Week 1 gave both teams a very clear identity. Navy's flexbone produced 527 total yards against Towson, 506 of them on the ground, with 21 net passing yards, 30 first downs, zero turnovers and 39 minutes and 50 seconds of possession. Quarterback Braxton Woodson carried 23 times for 200 yards and three rushing touchdowns and threw the ball six times. The caveat is the opponent: Towson is an FCS program, and a 506-yard rushing night against that defense is not the same evidence as 506 yards against an FBS front.
Florida Atlantic got the opposite test. At Florida, the Owls gained 396 yards, turned the ball over three times and took nine penalties for 88 yards while Florida ran for 281 yards and scored 66. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp went 34-of-52 for 276 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, and Kelby Valsin caught 10 of those passes for 92 yards. Fifty-two attempts is a script that only happens when a team is chasing, so the volume numbers describe the deficit more than the offense. The Florida Atlantic Week 1 board had priced the Owls as a heavy underdog, and the game played out that way.
The spread carries the money here. Navy at 4.5 points has drawn about $8.6K in lifetime volume, almost double the combined lifetime volume on the two moneyline legs, and it prices out near a coin flip at roughly 52%. Step the ladder one rung in either direction and the market's true number is visible: Navy at 5.5 points sits near 48%, Navy at 3.5 points near 54%, and Navy at 7.5 points falls to about 41%. That is a market that believes in a five-point game, not a rout, which is consistent with the 66% moneyline rather than in tension with it.
The total is the more interesting number. The pivot sits between 58.5 points, priced near 52%, and 59.5 points, priced near 47%. That is a high number for a Navy game, because Navy's offense is built to shorten it: 39 minutes and 50 seconds of possession in Week 1 means fewer drives for both teams. The market is pricing the total off Florida Atlantic's defense, which just allowed 66 points and 6.9 yards per carry, rather than off Navy's clock control. Last year's meeting landed at 74 combined points, which supports the over side of that argument. Team totals agree with the split: Navy over 30.5 points prices near 55% while Navy over 34.5 points drops to about 40%, implying a Navy scoring projection in the low thirties and a Florida Atlantic projection in the high twenties.
Line movement over the captures we hold has been minimal. Navy's moneyline moved from 65% to 66% across 42 snapshots between September 10 and September 11, 2026, and Navy at 4.5 points held in a 51% to 52% band across 31 snapshots in the same window. The one leg that actually moved is the total: over 56.5 points came down from 59% to 56% across 20 captures over that same day, a small drift toward the under that has not yet reached the pivot rungs.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game on September 12, 2026 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, with the winning team's contract paying $1 per share and the losing team's contract paying $0. Spread contracts settle against the final score margin and total contracts against combined points scored, both including any overtime. Settlement happens once the game goes final and the platforms confirm the official result, typically within hours of the final whistle. If the game is postponed or canceled, the contracts resolve under each platform's published rules for unplayed games rather than voiding automatically.
Both programs have season-long boards worth tracking alongside this one: the Navy team hub and the Florida Atlantic team hub collect every market on each team. Elsewhere on the American Conference slate that same day, South Florida at Army and Memphis at Boise State are the conference's other tests against outside competition, while Buffalo at FIU previews Florida Atlantic's next opponent. The full NCAA football board lists every game priced for the week.
The Navy vs Florida Atlantic moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game played on September 12, 2026 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida, with a 7:30 PM ET kickoff on ESPNU. The winning team's contract pays $1 per share and the losing team's contract pays $0. Spread contracts settle against the final margin of victory and total contracts settle against combined points scored, both including overtime, using the official final score. Settlement occurs after the game goes final and the platforms confirm the official result, normally within hours of the final whistle. If the game is postponed, relocated or canceled, the contracts resolve under each platform's published rules for unplayed or rescheduled games rather than voiding automatically.
As of September 11, 2026 the board prices Navy at about 66% to win outright and Florida Atlantic at about 36%. The spread sits at Navy by 4.5 points, priced near a coin flip at roughly 52%, and the full-game total pivots between 58.5 and 59.5 points.
Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida, televised nationally on ESPNU. It is the American Conference opener for both teams.
The game trades on Kalshi and Polymarket, with moneyline, spread, total, half and quarter legs listed. Roughly $37.4K in lifetime volume has traded across the board, most of it concentrated on the spread and the full-game total rather than the moneyline.
Navy is the road favorite. The Midshipmen are 1-0 after beating Towson 42-15 and went 10-2 in the 2025 regular season, while Florida Atlantic is 0-1 after a 66-21 loss at Florida and went 4-8 in 2025. Navy also won last year's meeting 42-32.
The moneyline pays $1 per share on the team that wins the game on September 12, 2026, while spread and total contracts settle against the official final score including overtime. Settlement follows within hours of the game going final.
Watch the total. Over 56.5 points drifted from 59% to 56% across captures between September 10 and September 11, 2026, the only leg on the board showing real movement, while the moneyline held in a 65% to 66% band and the 4.5-point spread held between 51% and 52%.