| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida | +1.5 — | O 32.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Army | -1.5 — | U 32.5 — | 0%0% | — |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
South Florida | +1.5 — | O 32.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Army | -1.5 — | U 32.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Army hosts South Florida at Michie Stadium at noon ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026, and the board makes the home team a modest favorite in a conference opener between two 1-0 teams. Army finished 2025 at 7-6 with a 44.5-point average game, South Florida finished 9-4 with a 66.3-point average game, and the market has sided decisively with Army's number: the full-game total has fallen six points from where the sportsbook opened it. Board lifetime volume is about $55K across the moneyline, 26 spread rungs, and 75 total and team-total lines. The live board above carries the current prices.
Army opened 2026 by handing the ball off 57 times for 569 yards in a 59-3 win over Bryant. South Florida opened it by gaining 208 total yards and winning anyway, 19-9 over Florida International. Both teams are 1-0, both are 0-0 in American Athletic play, and they meet at Michie Stadium at noon ET on Saturday with the home team priced as a modest favorite and a full-game total that has dropped six points since it opened. The live board above carries the current prices on the moneyline, every spread rung, and the full-game and team totals.
The South Florida vs Army market is pricing two teams whose 2025 seasons looked nothing alike. Army finished 7-6, closing with a 41-16 bowl win over UConn on December 27, and scored 22.4 points per game while allowing 22.1 across the twelve-game regular season. That is a 44.5-point average game. South Florida finished 9-4 after a 24-10 bowl loss to Old Dominion on December 17, and scored 43.0 per game while allowing 23.3, a 66.3-point average game. The 22-point gap between those two average games is the single most useful fact on this board.
Week 1 complicated the picture in both directions. Army's 648 total yards in the 59-3 win over Bryant came almost entirely on the ground: 569 rushing yards on 57 carries, 10.0 per attempt, against 79 passing yards on nine attempts, with 31 first downs and a 6-of-9 third-down day. Bryant is an FCS opponent and the sample is worth exactly that, but the shape of the offense is not in question. Wide receiver Zach Mundell carried four times for 105 yards and two touchdowns, and Cale Hellums went 4-of-9 for 59 yards, which is the entire passing game in one line.
South Florida's opener ran the other way. Florida International outgained the Bulls 381-208 in the 19-9 South Florida win and held them to 108 rushing yards on 38 carries, 2.8 per attempt, plus 100 passing yards. South Florida won because FIU turned it over three times and the Bulls turned it over zero. Michael Van Buren Jr. led the passing at 11-of-18 for 100 yards and Jason Collins Jr. carried 17 times for 59 yards, per ESPN's Week 1 box score. A team that averaged 43.0 points a game a year ago scored 19.
The moneyline reflects all of it. The board has Army at a 62% implied chance and South Florida at 39%, the two legs summing to 101 on the normal small two-sided overround. ESPN's matchup predictor puts Army at 60.2% and South Florida at 39.8%, so the market and the model sit within two points of each other. Lifetime volume on the board is about $55K, with roughly $7.1K on the South Florida moneyline leg against $6.3K on the Army leg. A dog priced near 39% drawing slightly more money than the favorite is ordinary and is not a signal on its own.
The sportsbook line has moved toward Army and away from points. DraftKings, as published by ESPN, opened Army -1.5 with a total of 52.5 and now shows Army -3.5 with a total of 46.5, and the home moneyline has gone from -118 at open to -175. That is a two-point spread move alongside a six-point drop in the total. Our own snapshot series on this board has not begun capturing yet, so read that as the sportsbook's open versus its current number, not as our tick history.
The spread rungs show where the disagreement actually lives. Army to win outright prices at 62%, Army by 2 or more at 59%, Army by 3 or more at 58%, and Army by 4 or more at 49%. The step from winning outright to winning by 3 or more costs only 4 points of probability. The step from 3 or more to 4 or more costs 9. Nearly all of the decay sits on the field goal, which means the market gives roughly a 9% chance this game ends on a 3-point Army win. Buying Army here is buying a close game, not a rout.
The total says the same thing from a different angle. Over 44.5 sits at 56%, over 47.5 at 46%, and over 50.5 at 40%, which puts the market's midpoint near 46.5 and matches the sportsbook number. The team totals agree: South Florida over 22.5 prices at 48% and Army over 23.5 at 57%, an implied final in the neighborhood of Army 24, South Florida 22. That is Army's 2025 pace, not South Florida's. The market has decided that Army's run-heavy offense sets the clock in this one, and a 57-carry, nine-attempt Week 1 is the reason it decided that.
The market resolves after the game is played at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with kickoff at 12:00 PM ET on CBSSN. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game, with overtime included in the final score. Spread contracts settle on the final margin, so Army -3.5 pays only if Army wins by 4 or more. The full-game total settles on the combined final score of both teams, and each team total settles on that team's own points. The contracts quoted on this page trade under the KXNCAAFGAME, KXNCAAFSPREAD, KXNCAAFTOTAL, and KXNCAAFTEAMTOTAL series on Kalshi for the September 12 South Florida at Army event. If the game is postponed past the scheduled date or canceled, contracts settle under each platform's published postponement rules rather than paying out on a partial score.
Army's ground game volume: 57 carries for 569 yards at 10.0 per attempt against Bryant, with nine pass attempts, is the clearest reason the total dropped six points.
South Florida's Week 1 offense: 208 total yards and 2.8 yards per carry against FIU from a team that averaged 43.0 points per game in 2025, which is the number the 39% price is discounting.
The 3-point key number: Army -2.5 prices 9 points of probability above Army -3.5 on the board, so the entire spread market turns on a field goal.
The total's six-point drop: 52.5 at open down to 46.5 now, landing on Army's 2025 average game of 44.5 rather than South Florida's 66.3.
Conditions and kickoff: a 12:00 PM ET start at Michie Stadium with an ESPN forecast of 73 degrees, no precipitation, and gusts to 8 mph, which removes weather as an excuse for either offense.
Conference stakes: this is the American Athletic opener for both, and both entered Week 2 at 1-0 overall and 0-0 in league play.
Season-long context for this game lives on the two team hubs. The Army board index tracks every Black Knights market on the schedule through the December 12 Navy game, and the South Florida board index does the same for the Bulls. The NCAA football hub carries the full Week 2 slate with live cross-platform prices on every game. For another noon ET kickoff on the same date, the Penn State vs Temple board prices a second in-state Week 2 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field.
The South Florida vs Army market resolves on the outcome of the game played at Michie Stadium in West Point, New York on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with a scheduled 12:00 PM ET kickoff on CBSSN. The moneyline contract pays $1 per share on the team that wins the game, including any overtime, and $0 on the losing team. Spread contracts settle on the final margin, so Army -3.5 pays only on an Army win by 4 or more points. The full-game total settles on the combined final score of both teams, and each team total settles on that team's own final points. Settlement follows the platform's declaration once the game is final on the scheduled date. If the game is postponed beyond the scheduled date or canceled outright, contracts settle under each platform's published postponement and cancellation rules rather than paying out on a partial or suspended score.
As of September 10, 2026, the board prices Army at a 62% implied chance to win and South Florida at 39%, with the two legs summing to 101 on the normal two-sided overround. The board above updates live, so check it against these figures before the noon ET kickoff on September 12.
It resolves once the game goes final at Michie Stadium on Saturday, September 12, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 PM ET on CBSSN. Overtime counts toward the final score for the moneyline, spread, and total.
The contracts quoted on this page trade on Kalshi under the KXNCAAFGAME series for the moneyline, KXNCAAFSPREAD for the 26 spread rungs, and KXNCAAFTOTAL and KXNCAAFTEAMTOTAL for the full-game and team totals on the September 12 South Florida at Army event.
Army is favored at home. The board has the Black Knights at 62% implied, DraftKings shows Army -3.5 with a total of 46.5 as published by ESPN, and ESPN's own matchup predictor puts Army at 60.2% against South Florida's 39.8%. All three land within roughly two points of each other.
Watch the 3-point key number, since Army -2.5 and Army -3.5 are separated by 9 points of probability on the board, and watch whether the total holds near 46.5 after falling from 52.5. Army's 57-carry Week 1 and South Florida's 208-yard opener are the two data points driving both.