| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rice | +23.5 — | O 54.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Dame | -23.5 — | U 54.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rice | +23.5 — | O 54.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Notre Dame | -23.5 — | U 54.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Rice vs Notre Dame carries one of the widest spreads on the Week 2 board. The No. 3 Fighting Irish are laying more than 44 points at home against a Rice team that went 5-7 in 2025 and lost four games by 24 or more, so the moneyline is settled and the real market is the spread, the total, and the first half. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Notre Dame Stadium on NBC, and the board has drawn roughly $189K in lifetime volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. The live board above has the current cross-platform prices.
Notre Dame is 1-0 after a 41-13 win over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field on September 6, and Rice is 1-0 after a 31-3 home win over FCS Houston Christian on September 5. The board treats those two results as nothing alike. Notre Dame prices at 100% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, Rice sits at 1% on Kalshi and 0% on Polymarket, and the entire tradeable question is how big the margin gets and whether the scoreboard keeps moving after Notre Dame empties its bench.
Notre Dame finished the 2025 regular season 10-2, and both losses came by a single possession: 27-24 at Miami in the opener and 41-40 at home to Texas A&M. The wins were not close. The Irish put up 70 on Syracuse, 56 at Arkansas, 56 on Purdue, and 49 at Stanford, which is the scoring profile that makes a 44-point number defensible rather than aspirational. In the Wisconsin opener quarterback CJ Carr went 19 of 29 for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns, Aneyas Williams carried 20 times for 90 yards and 2 scores, and Jordan Faison led the receivers with 4 catches for 81 yards. That is an efficient, run-forward game plan against a Big Ten defense, and it did not require a fourth quarter.
Rice is the counterweight. The Owls went 5-7 in 2025 with a losing profile that was specifically bad against good teams: 61-13 at UTSA, 52-3 at South Florida, 56-24 to North Texas, 38-14 to Memphis, and 35-9 to Houston. Five separate opponents hung 35 or more on them. The Week 1 win over Houston Christian does not change that read, and the box score is why: quarterback Jacurri Brown attempted six passes, completing 3 for 18 yards and a touchdown, while Tyvonn Byars carried 16 times for 104 yards. Rice won on the ground against an FCS defense and never had to throw. Notre Dame's front will not allow that plan, and a team that has not shown a passing game has no mechanism for climbing out of a two-score hole.
The spread ladder is where the money actually sits. As of September 9, Notre Dame -44.5 is the coin flip at 51% on Kalshi, with -45.5 at 48% just above it and -41.5 at 61% just below. That agrees exactly with the DraftKings number ESPN carries for this game, ND -44.5 with a total of 55.5. Our board's total pivot lands in the same place: Over 55.5 prices at 50% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Over 54.5 sits at 55% blended (54% Kalshi, 55% Polymarket).
Put those two numbers together and the market's central projection is Notre Dame 50, Rice 5 or 6. The first-half rungs sharpen it further. Notre Dame winning the first half by more than 24.5 points prices at 57%, by more than 27.5 at 47%, and the first-half total pivot sits near 31 points (Over 30.5 at 57%, Over 34.5 at 39%). The board is pricing more than half the game's expected scoring before halftime, which is the same thing as saying the starters are expected to be finished by the third quarter. That is the honest structure of this game and it is why the biggest spread rungs get thin fast: Notre Dame -51.5 is only 32% and -57.5 is 18%, because a backup quarterback and second-team offensive line do not run up scores the way the first unit does.
One volume note that reads like a signal and is not. The Rice moneyline leg carries about $116K in lifetime volume, well more than the $28K on the Notre Dame leg, which means most of the money on this board has been spent on a contract priced at 1%. That is lottery-ticket buying on a cheap outright, not informed positioning, and it should not be read as anyone taking Rice seriously. Polymarket is the thin book here as well, with roughly $1.9K lifetime on its moneyline pair against Kalshi's much deeper market, so Kalshi is the price to trust on anything beyond the two-way.
Movement has been minimal. Across captures from September 9 into the early hours of September 10, the Notre Dame moneyline never left 100% on either platform, and Notre Dame -44.5 held at 51% through 31 straight Kalshi snapshots. The only drift worth naming is the total nudging up a point of probability on both books, from 53% to 54% on Kalshi and 54% to 55% on Polymarket for Over 54.5. Nothing in that window suggests news.
The market settles on the final score of the game played Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana, with a 3:30 PM ET kickoff on NBC. The moneyline pays out to the outright winner, the spread rungs settle against Notre Dame's final margin of victory, and the total and first-half markets settle on the combined points scored in the relevant period. Kalshi and Polymarket both mark the game once it goes final.
Notre Dame's Week 1 board, Wisconsin vs Notre Dame, is the best recent read on how this offense is being priced. The same-day marquee game is Ohio State vs Texas, and the season-long question these results feed into trades on the college football national champion board alongside the conference champion market. For team-level pages, see the Notre Dame and Rice hubs, or browse the full NCAA football slate.
Resolves on the final score of the Rice at Notre Dame game scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana, kickoff 3:30 PM ET on NBC. The moneyline contract pays $1 per share to the outright winner and $0 to the loser. Each spread rung settles on Notre Dame's final margin of victory, so Notre Dame -44.5 pays if the Irish win by 45 or more. Match total and first-half rungs settle on combined points scored in that period, and first-half margin rungs settle on the halftime score. If the game is canceled, postponed beyond the platforms' stated window, or abandoned before it is official, contracts void and settle per each venue's own postponement rules.
As of September 9, 2026, Notre Dame prices at 100% on both Kalshi and Polymarket and Rice at 1% on Kalshi and 0% on Polymarket. The tradeable market is the spread, where Notre Dame -44.5 is the coin flip at 51%, and the total, where Over 55.5 prices at 50% on both platforms.
Notre Dame is favored to the point that the moneyline carries no information, implying essentially 100% win probability. The meaningful number is the margin: the market's coin flip sits at a 44.5-point Notre Dame win, which combined with the 55.5 total implies a projected score near Notre Dame 50, Rice 5.
Kalshi and Polymarket both list the game. Kalshi carries the full board including 16 spread rungs, match and first-half totals, and first-half margin markets. Polymarket quotes the two-way moneyline and three full-game total rungs, with roughly $1.9K in lifetime moneyline volume, so Kalshi is the reference price on anything beyond the winner.
It resolves on the final score of the game kicking off at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Notre Dame Stadium, broadcast nationally on NBC. Both platforms settle once the game goes final.
Watch the first-half rungs. Notre Dame winning the first half by more than 24.5 points prices at 57% and the first-half total pivot sits near 31 points, so if the Irish lead by four scores at the break the second-team offense decides whether Over 55.5 and the deepest spread rungs cash. Rice's ability to throw, after six pass attempts in the opener, is the other variable.