The Next Prime Minister of Israel market is one of the largest international-politics futures on the board, trading across Kalshi and Polymarket with a contender field of roughly 20 named figures and more than $22M in cumulative volume. The live race is centered at the top on Gadi Eizenkot, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Naftali Bennett, with Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid, and Yoav Gallant anchoring the chase tier behind them and a long tail of ministers and party leaders trailing. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform prices on every contender; the market resolves to whoever next holds the office of Israeli prime minister, a question settled by coalition arithmetic in the Knesset rather than a simple popular vote.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel market is a long-dated futures contract, not a single event, and the board reflects that. A field of roughly 20 named contenders splits the probability across the country's party leaders, ministers, and security figures, but the conviction money concentrates at the top: Gadi Eizenkot leads the board, with Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett forming the next tier and Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid, and Yoav Gallant carrying real support behind them. With more than $22M in cumulative volume, this is one of the highest-volume international-politics markets listed on either exchange. The live board above ranks every contender by current price; this page covers who the field is, what structurally moves it, and exactly how it resolves.
Gadi Eizenkot sits at the front of the Next Prime Minister of Israel field as the most heavily backed name, drawing the largest single share of the probability and carrying prices on both Kalshi and Polymarket. A former IDF chief of staff who entered the Knesset on the National Unity slate, he is the contender the board most associates with a post-Netanyahu security-credentialed government, and his standing reflects that structural read rather than any single event. The primary risk to the position is the one that faces every frontrunner in a fragmented parliamentary system: a path to the premiership runs not through a plurality of votes but through assembling a 61-seat Knesset majority, and a name can lead the futures board while still lacking the coalition partners to actually form a government.
Benjamin Netanyahu anchors the chase tier as the incumbent and the longest-serving prime minister in the country's history. His price reflects the structural advantage of the sitting officeholder and the durability of his Likud-led bloc, weighed against the persistent question of whether his coalition holds through the market's window. Naftali Bennett represents the return-candidacy trade: a former prime minister who has signaled a comeback and polls competitively as an alternative head of a non-Netanyahu coalition, he draws two-platform backing on that profile.
Below this group, Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid, and Yoav Gallant lead the next layer of credible names. Lieberman commands a disciplined secular-right party that is a frequent kingmaker in coalition math; Lapid, a former prime minister and the leader of Yesh Atid, remains the most prominent centrist alternative; and Gallant, a former defense minister, carries a security profile similar to Eizenkot's. Behind them the field flattens into a long tail of ministers and party leaders, including Itamar Ben Gvir, Israel Katz, and Bezalel Smotrich, where the live board above is the only honest read on who is moving and who is dormant.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel market resolves to the person who next holds the office of prime minister, and the listed settlement date runs through December 31, 2026. Crucially, the prime minister is not chosen by a direct popular vote: after a Knesset election, the president tasks a Member of Knesset, typically the leader best positioned to command a majority, with forming a government, and that candidate becomes prime minister only once a coalition controlling at least 61 of the 120 seats is sworn in. The market can therefore turn on coalition negotiations and parliamentary confidence rather than vote totals alone. The winning contender's contract pays $1 per share while every other contender resolves to $0.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel race sits alongside the other major leadership futures on the board, including the Next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom market and the Next Prime Minister of Sweden market, which track the same coalition-and-confidence dynamics in other parliamentary systems. The full slate of leadership and election races sits in the politics market hub. Page maintained by Genius Staff, refreshed on a review cycle as the field and the prices move.
Resolves to the person who next holds the office of Prime Minister of Israel, with the listed market settlement date running through December 31, 2026. The Israeli prime minister is not elected by direct popular vote: following a Knesset election, the president tasks a Member of Knesset with forming a government, and that candidate becomes prime minister only once a coalition controlling at least 61 of the 120 Knesset seats is sworn in. The winning contender's contract pays $1 per share; all other contender contracts resolve to $0. If no qualifying change occurs within the market window, or if the process is otherwise altered or voided, the market resolves per each platform's specific rules.
The live board above ranks current cross-platform prices on every contender across Kalshi and Polymarket. The race is led by Gadi Eizenkot, with Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett forming the top tier and Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid, and Yoav Gallant in the chase tier across a field of roughly 20 named contenders.
The market resolves to whoever next holds the office of prime minister, with the listed settlement date running through December 31, 2026. Because the prime minister is chosen through coalition formation in the Knesset rather than a direct vote, the outcome can turn on parliamentary negotiations rather than a single election day.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the Next Prime Minister of Israel market, with cross-platform prices on the leading contenders such as Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett. The board above compares both platforms side by side so you can see where the prices diverge.
Gadi Eizenkot sits at the front of the field as the most heavily backed name on the board, with Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett the next-closest contenders. Check the live board above for the current ranking across both platforms.
Watch coalition arithmetic above all, since a candidate needs 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats to form a government, not just a polling lead. Then track election timing, whether Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition holds, and any comeback candidacies that reprice the board.