The Next Prime Minister of Israel market asks who will be the first new person to hold the office after Benjamin Netanyahu, which makes it a succession contract rather than a vote-share contract. The premise changed over the summer: the 25th Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, and a national election is now set for October 27, 2026, so the question has a calendar instead of an open horizon. Twelve contenders split roughly $115K in cumulative Kalshi volume, and the live board above ranks every name.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel market is a succession contract, not an election contract. Benjamin Netanyahu is not on the board. Kalshi lists the question as who will be the first new person to hold the office after him, so every contract here is a position on the identity of his successor rather than on whether he stays. What has changed since the last review is the timeline: the 25th Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026 after becoming the first Israeli legislature since 1988 to serve a full term without early dissolution, and the election is set for October 27, 2026. Twelve named contenders split roughly $115K in cumulative volume. The live board above carries the current price on every name.
Gadi Eisenkot is the frontrunner and he now leads a party of his own. The former IDF chief of staff resigned from Benny Gantz's National Unity in June 2025, founded Yashar in September 2025, and launched its campaign on June 30, 2026 on a platform built around government reform and a state commission of inquiry into October 7. Yashar has not joined any electoral alliance, so Eisenkot goes to the October 27 ballot as the head of a first-time list that has to clear the 3.25% threshold before any of this matters. He traded at 53c on July 6 and has held 67c as of August 31, 2026, the highest price any single name has reached on this board.
That 67c is easy to misread as a thin-book quirk, because Eisenkot's contract carries only about $12K of the board's cumulative volume against the $38K traded on Naftali Bennett. The deeper Israeli leadership board says otherwise. The Israel Prime Minister After the 2026 Election market runs roughly $34M in cumulative volume and prices Eisenkot near 51c with Netanyahu himself near 30c as of August 31, 2026. Strip out the scenario where Netanyahu simply stays, and the two boards are telling the same story about who the successor is. The gap between them is a question shape, not a mispricing.
The biggest structural change on this board is one the price list does not show. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are no longer competing lists. Bennett's party merged with Lapid's Yesh Atid into the Together alliance announced in April 2026, with Bennett heading the combined slate and Lapid running behind him. Both men have already been prime minister, and they rotated the job between themselves in the thirty-sixth government. Bennett holds the deepest book on this market at $38K traded, and the market treats him as the alliance's premiership candidate while pricing Lapid as the junior partner on the same list. Two contracts, one campaign.
Avigdor Lieberman and Israel Katz fill out the rest of the credible tier. Lieberman runs Yisrael Beiteinu, a disciplined secular-right party that has been a frequent kingmaker in coalition math, which is why he prices above names with larger national profiles. Katz is the clearest internal-succession trade on the board: a Likud MK since 1998 and the sitting defense minister, he is the name that pays if the governing bloc survives the election and hands off from within rather than losing power outright. His contract has roughly $17K traded against it, the third-deepest book here.
Below that tier the board flattens fast. Itamar Ben-Gvir leads Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich the Religious Zionist Party, both coalition partners rather than premiership candidates. Yariv Levin is the Likud justice minister. Benny Gantz leads Blue and White and Yair Golan leads The Democrats. Two names on the list are not running anything at all: Yoav Gallant resigned his Knesset seat in January 2025 and holds no party role, and former Mossad director Yossi Cohen has never held elected office. The market has all five of them clustered at the bottom, and that flat tail is the honest read on how it treats them.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel market resolves to the first new person to hold the office after the contracts were issued. Israelis vote on October 27, 2026, with results confirmed on November 4, 2026, and the prime minister is not chosen by that vote directly. The president then tasks a Member of Knesset with forming a government, that candidate has 28 days to do it, and the job is only won once a coalition controlling at least 61 of the 120 seats is sworn in. A first attempt that fails passes the mandate onward and restarts the clock, which is why a successor being seated before the end of December is live rather than automatic. Kalshi lists the contract expiration on this series as January 1, 2045, a far-dated backstop rather than a scheduled settlement, so a handover that slips into the new year still pays. The winning contender's contract pays $1 per share while every other contender resolves to $0.
The deepest money on Israeli leadership is not here. The Israel Prime Minister After the 2026 Election board carries roughly $34M and includes Netanyahu himself as a contender, and the 2026 Israel Election market prices the party and seat questions that feed the coalition math on this page. Every contract tied to the country is collected on the Israel prediction markets hub, and the incumbent's own contracts sit on the Benjamin Netanyahu markets page. For a written take on how this field repriced, see our Next Israeli PM odds analysis. Comparable parliamentary-succession contracts include the Next Prime Minister of United Kingdom odds, and the full slate of leadership races is in the politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves to the first new person to hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel after the contracts were issued. Benjamin Netanyahu is excluded by construction: the contract set asks who succeeds him, so a continuation of his premiership is not a payable outcome on this board. The Israeli prime minister is not elected by direct popular vote. Israelis vote for the 26th Knesset on October 27, 2026 with results confirmed on November 4, 2026, after which the president tasks a Member of Knesset with forming a government; that candidate has 28 days to assemble a coalition controlling at least 61 of the 120 Knesset seats, and becomes prime minister only once that government is sworn in. A failed attempt passes the mandate to another Member of Knesset. Kalshi lists the contract expiration on this series as January 1, 2045, a far-dated backstop rather than a scheduled settlement date, so a handover completed after the 2026 calendar year still settles the market. The winning contender's contract pays $1 per share and all other contender contracts resolve to $0.
Gadi Eisenkot leads the 12-contender board at 67c as of August 31, 2026, with Naftali Bennett at 14c, Avigdor Lieberman at 11c, and Israel Katz at 9c behind him. The live board above ranks the current price on every name.
It resolves when a new person is sworn in as prime minister. Israelis vote on October 27, 2026, the president then tasks a Member of Knesset with forming a government, and that candidate has 28 days to assemble a 61-seat coalition, so the swearing-in can land weeks after the vote.
Kalshi lists the full 12-contender succession board under its Israeli prime minister series, with roughly $115K in cumulative volume across the field. Polymarket does not carry a matching succession set, though it runs a much larger board on who holds the office after the October 27 election.
Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff who founded the Yashar party in September 2025, is the favorite at 67c as of August 31, 2026, up from 53c on July 6. Benjamin Netanyahu is not a contender on this board because the market asks specifically who succeeds him.
Watch the September 9, 2026 candidate list deadline first, since a late merger changes the coalition map before anyone votes. Then watch whether Yashar clears the 3.25% threshold on October 27 and how long the 28-day formation mandate actually takes.