The Next Prime Minister of Israel market asks who will be the first new person to hold the office after Benjamin Netanyahu, which makes it a succession contract rather than an election contract. Twelve named contenders split roughly $115K in cumulative Kalshi volume, and the field has narrowed sharply since early summer: what was a three-way race in June is now one clear frontrunner and a chase tier. The live board above ranks every contender, and the listed settlement date runs through December 31, 2026.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel market is a succession contract, not an election contract. Benjamin Netanyahu is not on the board. Kalshi lists the question as who will be the first new person to hold the office after him, so every contract here is a position on the identity of his successor rather than on whether he stays. Twelve named contenders split roughly $115K in cumulative volume, and the distribution has tightened considerably since June. This page covers who the field is, what structurally moves it, and exactly how it resolves. The live board above carries the current price on every name.
Gadi Eisenkot is the frontrunner and the gap has widened. He traded in the low 40s in late June, closed at 53c on July 6, and has since consolidated to 67c, the highest price any single name has held on this board. A former IDF chief of staff who entered the Knesset on the National Unity slate, Eisenkot is the contender the market most associates with a security-credentialed government after Netanyahu, and the repricing arrived without one dated catalyst behind it. This was a structural read hardening, not a news event.
The number worth holding onto is the book behind that price. Eisenkot's contract carries about $12K of the board's cumulative volume, well behind the $38K traded on Naftali Bennett. A 67c favorite sitting on a thinner book is a favorite priced by conviction rather than by depth. The standing risk is the one every frontrunner faces in a fragmented parliamentary system: the premiership runs through assembling 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats, and a name can lead the futures board while lacking the coalition partners to actually form a government.
The largest change on this board since the last review is Naftali Bennett. The former prime minister was the clear second name in late June at 34c and now trades at 12c, giving back most of the comeback premium the market had assigned him even as his contract kept the deepest book here at $38K traded. The return-candidacy thesis has not been formally withdrawn anywhere. The market simply repriced how likely it is to put him back in the office directly, and it did so while Eisenkot absorbed the probability.
Avigdor Lieberman at 11c and Israel Katz at 9c fill out the rest of the credible tier. Lieberman commands a disciplined secular-right party that has been a frequent kingmaker in coalition math, which is why he prices above names with larger national profiles. Katz, a long-serving Likud minister who has held the foreign affairs and defense portfolios, is the board's clearest internal-succession trade: the scenario where the governing bloc holds together and hands off rather than losing power outright. His contract has roughly $17K traded against it, the third-deepest book on the market.
Yair Lapid, a former prime minister and the leader of Yesh Atid, sits at 5c, with Itamar Ben-Gvir at 3c and Yariv Levin at 2c. Below that the board flattens into a cluster at 1c each: Benny Gantz, Bezalel Smotrich, Yoav Gallant, Yossi Cohen, and Yair Golan. That flat tail is the honest read on how the market treats them. They are live on the board and priced as long shots, and none of them has separated from the others.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel market resolves to the first new person to hold the office of prime minister after the contracts were issued, and the listed settlement date runs through December 31, 2026. The prime minister is not chosen by direct popular vote. After a Knesset election, the president tasks a Member of Knesset with forming a government, and that candidate becomes prime minister only once a coalition controlling at least 61 of the 120 seats is sworn in. The market can therefore turn on coalition negotiations and parliamentary confidence votes rather than on vote totals alone. The winning contender's contract pays $1 per share while every other contender resolves to $0.
The Next Prime Minister of Israel race sits alongside the other parliamentary-succession futures on the board, including the Next Prime Minister of United Kingdom odds and the Next Prime Minister of Sweden 2026 odds, which track the same coalition-and-confidence dynamics in other systems. Every contract tied to the country, from leadership to conflict and diplomacy questions, is collected on the Israel prediction markets hub, and the incumbent's own contracts sit on the Benjamin Netanyahu markets page. For a written take on how this field repriced, see our Next Israeli PM odds analysis. The full slate of leadership and election races is in the politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves to the first new person to hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel after the contracts were issued, with the listed market settlement date running through December 31, 2026. Benjamin Netanyahu is excluded by construction: the contract set asks who succeeds him, so a continuation of his premiership is not a payable outcome on this board. The Israeli prime minister is not elected by direct popular vote. Following a Knesset election, the president tasks a Member of Knesset with forming a government, and that candidate becomes prime minister only once a coalition controlling at least 61 of the 120 Knesset seats is sworn in. The winning contender's contract pays $1 per share and all other contender contracts resolve to $0. If no qualifying succession occurs within the market window, or if the process is otherwise altered or voided, the market resolves per the platform's specific rules.
Gadi Eisenkot leads the board at 67c, with Naftali Bennett at 12c, Avigdor Lieberman at 11c, and Israel Katz at 9c behind him across a 12-contender field. The live board above ranks the current price on every name.
The market resolves to the first new person to hold the office after the contracts were issued, with a listed settlement date running through December 31, 2026. Because the prime minister is chosen through coalition formation in the Knesset rather than a direct vote, the outcome can turn on parliamentary negotiations rather than a single election day.
Kalshi lists the full 12-contender board under its Israeli prime minister succession series, with roughly $115K in cumulative volume across the field. Polymarket does not carry a matching contract set, so this page prices off the Kalshi book alone.
Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff, is the favorite at 67c as of August 17, 2026, up from the low 40s in late June. Benjamin Netanyahu is not a contender here because the market asks specifically who succeeds him.
Watch coalition arithmetic first, since a candidate needs 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats to form a government rather than just a polling lead. Then track election timing and whether the handover comes from inside Likud, which is the single biggest swing between Israel Katz at 9c and the opposition-bloc names.