Texans vs Chargers Prediction Market Odds, November 8, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Texans | -4.5 53%52% | O 41.5 47% | 65%64% | 65% Kalshi |
â–¶Chargers | +4.5 47%48% | U 41.5 53% | 31%30% | 31% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Houston Texans | -4.5 | O 41.5 | 65% Kalshi | |
â–¶Los Angeles Chargers | +4.5 | U 41.5 | 31% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
Houston is the road favorite against a winless Chargers team because C.J. Stroud has 11 touchdowns and one interception while Justin Herbert has five touchdowns and 10 interceptions for an 0-7 Los Angeles roster missing Rashawn Slater and Derwin James Jr. As of November 3 the Texans trade near 66% to 67% across Kalshi and Polymarket, close to the DraftKings line of Houston -4.5. The board carries roughly $87K in volume, and the live board above has current prices. Kickoff is 4:05 PM ET on CBS at SoFi Stadium, and the market resolves when the game goes final on November 8, 2026.
Two teams with a combined 2-12 record meet at SoFi Stadium, and the market has made Houston a clear road favorite over the winless Chargers. Texans vs Chargers odds have Houston near 66% to 67% on Kalshi and Polymarket, close to the DraftKings line of Texans -4.5 (-205), and above ESPN's matchup predictor at 62%. The read is simple: Houston's 2-5 record hides a quarterback playing efficient football, and Los Angeles is 0-7 with a quarterback who has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Texans vs Chargers Odds: What the Board Says
As of 10:42 AM ET on November 3, Houston trades at 66c on Kalshi and 67c on Polymarket, and Los Angeles at 34c on both. The one-cent gap on the Texans leg is the only daylight on the moneyline, so Kalshi is the marginally cheaper place to buy Houston. Cumulative board volume is roughly $87K.
The spread is centered on the DraftKings number. Texans -4.5 trades at 53c on Kalshi and 52c on Polymarket, Texans -5.5 at 47c and 48c, and Texans -3.5 at 54c on Kalshi and 56c on Polymarket. With -3.5 and -4.5 nearly level on Kalshi, the market is putting little weight on a Houston win by exactly four. Chargers -1.5 trades at 31c on Kalshi and 30c on Polymarket, three to four points under their 34c moneyline.
Why Houston Is Favored at SoFi
C.J. Stroud is the clearest edge on the field. He is 160 of 247 for 1,867 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, per ESPN. Nico Collins leads the receivers with 24 catches for 329 yards and three touchdowns, and Woody Marks leads the backfield with 77 carries for 271 yards. Houston is 0-4 at home and 2-1 on the road, and three of its five losses came by one score: 19-17 at Indianapolis, 34-30 to Dallas and 27-21 in overtime to the Giants before the Week 8 bye. The Texans also beat Tennessee 26-3 and Jacksonville 34-31 in that stretch.
The injury report is not clean. As of November 3, ESPN lists running back David Montgomery (groin), safety Reed Blankenship (concussion), safety Jalen Pitre (shoulder) and tackle Blake Fisher (thumb) as questionable, and receiver Jaylin Noel went to injured reserve with a toe injury on October 28.
What Is Wrong With the Chargers
Los Angeles has lost all seven games, including 24-16 at Buffalo, 30-23 at Seattle, 23-17 to Denver, 22-6 at Kansas City and 24-9 to the Rams last Sunday. Justin Herbert is 131 of 212 for 1,398 yards with five touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Omarion Hampton has 89 carries for 309 yards and three touchdowns, and Ladd McConkey leads the team with 17 catches for 286 yards.
The roster damage is what keeps the price where it is. ESPN's roster listing has tackle Rashawn Slater, tackle Trey Pipkins III and guard Trevor Penning on injured reserve, along with safety Derwin James Jr. (placed November 1), tight end David Njoku (November 2) and linebacker Denzel Perryman. Three cornerbacks, Donte Jackson, Deane Leonard and Rodney Shelley, were listed questionable on November 3.
How the Texans vs Chargers Line Moved
Polymarket's daily series had Houston at 69c on October 19, the earliest bar it carries, and the price drifted down to 61c by October 27 and 28, when Kalshi's series in our data begins, also at 61c. It has climbed back since. Houston closed November 1 at 64c on Polymarket and 66c on Kalshi, and after the Chargers lost 24-9 to the Rams that afternoon it closed November 2 at 66c on Polymarket and 65c on Kalshi. Since 11:13 AM ET on November 2, Kalshi's captures have held between 65c and 66c, so the number is stable going into the week.
The Total and Team Totals
Over 40.5 points trades at 52c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, matching the DraftKings total of 40.5, with over 42.5 at 46c on both. Kalshi's team totals put Houston near 23.5 (over 23.5 at 50c on Kalshi and 47c on Polymarket) and Los Angeles near 17.5 (over 17.5 at 52c). Polymarket prices Houston to win the first quarter at 60c and the first half at 63c.
When the Texans vs Chargers Market Resolves
The market resolves on Sunday, November 8, 2026, after the 4:05 PM ET kickoff on CBS at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, once the NFL declares the game final. The moneyline pays $1 per share on the winner, with overtime counted.
Key Texans vs Chargers Catalysts
- Herbert's turnovers: 10 interceptions against five touchdowns is the single stat the Texans price leans on.
- Chargers secondary: Derwin James Jr. is on injured reserve and three corners were questionable on November 3.
- Houston's backfield: David Montgomery's groin injury is the main availability question on the Texans side.
- Spread center: Texans -4.5 at 52.5c sits on the DraftKings number, with -3.5 and -4.5 nearly level on Kalshi.
- Model gap: ESPN's predictor gives Houston 62%, about four points under the exchange price.
Related Texans vs Chargers Markets
Houston's season runs through the AFC South division market and the Texans playoff market. The Chargers' slide is priced in the AFC West market and the Chargers season win total. The full week is on the NFL hub, and the Chargers team page carries their remaining boards.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Texans at Chargers game at SoFi Stadium on November 8, 2026, paying $1 per share on the winner and $0 on the loser, with overtime included. Spread contracts settle on the final margin, so Texans -4.5 requires a Houston win by five or more points, and total contracts settle on combined points scored by both teams including overtime. Team total contracts settle on each team's official final score. Kalshi lists the game under KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC and Polymarket lists the matching two-way market; both settle once the NFL declares the game final. If the game is postponed or canceled, contracts follow each venue's published rules rather than voiding automatically.
Key Factors
- C.J. Stroud at 11 touchdowns and one interception against Justin Herbert at five touchdowns and 10 interceptions
- Chargers are 0-7 with Rashawn Slater, Derwin James Jr. and David Njoku on injured reserve
- Three Chargers cornerbacks listed questionable on November 3
- David Montgomery (groin) and Reed Blankenship (concussion) questionable for Houston as of November 3
- Texans -4.5 at 52.5c sits on the DraftKings number, with the total at 40.5
- Houston climbed from 61c on October 27 to 66c to 67c by November 3, with the Chargers' 24-9 loss to the Rams in between
What are the current Texans vs Chargers odds?
As of 10:42 AM ET on November 3, 2026, Houston trades at 66c on Kalshi and 67c on Polymarket, and Los Angeles at 34c on both. The live board above carries the current prices.
Who is favored in Texans vs Chargers and by how much?
Houston is favored at roughly a 66% to 67% implied probability, about four points above ESPN's 62% matchup projection. DraftKings has the Texans -4.5 at -205.
Where does the Texans vs Chargers market trade?
Kalshi lists the game under KXNFLGAME-26NOV08HOULAC with spread, total and team total markets, and Polymarket lists the matching moneyline plus spread, total and quarter markets. Cumulative board volume is roughly $87K.
What is the spread and total for Texans vs Chargers?
Texans -4.5 trades at 53c on Kalshi and 52c on Polymarket, and Texans -5.5 near 47.5c. Over 40.5 points trades at 52c on Kalshi and 51c on Polymarket, matching the DraftKings total of 40.5.
When does the Texans vs Chargers market resolve?
The market resolves on November 8, 2026, after the 4:05 PM ET kickoff on CBS at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, once the NFL declares the game final. Overtime counts toward every contract.
What should I watch before Texans vs Chargers kicks off?
Watch the Chargers cornerback group, with Donte Jackson, Deane Leonard and Rodney Shelley all questionable on November 3, and David Montgomery's groin injury for Houston. Herbert's interception rate is the stat most likely to decide the spread.