Colts vs Chiefs Prediction Market Odds, September 20, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Colts | +6.5 49% | O 27.5 94%94% | 28% | 28% Kalshi |
â–¶Chiefs | -6.5 51% | U 27.5 6%6% | 73% | 73% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Indianapolis Colts | +6.5 | O 27.5 | 28% Kalshi | |
â–¶Kansas City Chiefs | -6.5 | U 27.5 | 73% Kalshi |
No player props available for this game.
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) are clear favorites to beat the Indianapolis Colts (0-1) on Sunday Night Football, priced at 73% to win on Kalshi against 28% for Indianapolis as of September 16. The Kalshi spread ladder puts the fair line near Kansas City -6.5 (51%), and the full-game total sits around 46 points, with over 45.5 at 53% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium on NBC.
Where the Colts and Chiefs stand after Week 1
The two teams arrive from opposite Week 1 results. The Kansas City Chiefs opened 1-0 by beating the Denver Broncos 31-10 at Arrowhead on September 14 (Broncos vs Chiefs odds page). The Indianapolis Colts opened 0-1 after a 41-23 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens on September 13, allowing 41 points in their opener. Indianapolis now travels for its first road game of the season, while Kansas City plays its second straight home game.
The moneyline: Chiefs 73% on Kalshi
Kalshi prices the Chiefs at 73% and the Colts at 28% as of September 16, a combined 101% that includes the usual one point of overround. That is roughly a 2.6 to 1 favorite in Kansas City's direction. This page renders the moneyline from Kalshi, so read the 73% as a single-venue Kalshi price rather than a blended cross-platform number.
The spread: the fair line sits near Chiefs -6.5
The Kalshi spread ladder brackets the market's expected margin tightly:
- Kansas City -3.5: 60%
- Kansas City -4.5: 57%
- Kansas City -5.5: 55% on Kalshi, 54% on Polymarket
- Kansas City -6.5: 51%
- Kansas City -7.5: 44%
The 51% at -6.5 is the closest rung to a coin flip, so the market treats a Chiefs win by a touchdown as the midpoint outcome. The drop from 51% to 44% between -6.5 and -7.5 is the largest single step on that stretch, which is the key number of 7 showing up in the pricing. On the other side, Kalshi gives Indianapolis 25% to win by 2 or more (Indianapolis -1.5).
The total: a mid-40s game
Over 45.5 points trades at 53% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, over 46.5 at 49% on Kalshi, and over 48.5 at 43% on Kalshi and 42% on Polymarket. The two venues sit within two points of each other on every total line they both list, so the total is a genuine consensus near 46. Team totals line up with the spread: Kalshi has Kansas City over 24.5 points at 62% and over 27.5 at 47%, and Indianapolis over 17.5 at 59% and over 20.5 at 47%. That implies a projected score in the neighborhood of Chiefs 27, Colts 20.
The key matchup: the Colts defense after allowing 41
The price is built on Week 1 form. Kansas City held Denver to 10 points while scoring 31, and Indianapolis gave up 41 to Baltimore at home. A Colts over 17.5 at 59% says the market still expects Indianapolis to move the ball, so the gap in the moneyline is mostly about how many points the Chiefs put up against a defense that just allowed 41.
Line movement
The board carries no snapshot history for this game yet, so there is no captured open-to-now movement to report. The prices above are the September 16 read.
For the rest of the slate, see today's NFL odds and the NFL prediction markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline markets resolve to the team that wins the Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs game scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026 (8:20 PM ET kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium), including any overtime. Spread markets settle on the final margin of victory and total markets settle on the combined final score, overtime included, as the platform rules define. Kalshi and Polymarket settle these markets after the game goes final; a postponement or cancellation is handled under each platform's own contract rules.
Key Factors
- Kalshi moneyline: Chiefs 73%, Colts 28% as of September 16
- Spread ladder centers on Kansas City -6.5 at 51%, with a 7-point drop to 44% at -7.5
- Total near 46: over 45.5 at 53% on both Kalshi and Polymarket
- Week 1 form: Chiefs beat the Broncos 31-10, Colts lost 41-23 at home to the Ravens
- Team totals imply roughly Chiefs 27, Colts 20 (KC over 24.5 at 62%, IND over 17.5 at 59%)
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, 8:20 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
What are the Colts vs Chiefs odds?
As of September 16, 2026, Kalshi prices the Kansas City Chiefs at 73% to win and the Indianapolis Colts at 28%. The live board on this page updates as the prices move.
When and where is Colts vs Chiefs?
The game kicks off at 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, September 20, 2026, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. It is the NFL Week 2 Sunday Night Football game on NBC.
What is the spread for Colts vs Chiefs?
The Kalshi spread ladder centers on Kansas City -6.5, priced at 51% as of September 16. Kansas City -5.5 trades at 55% on Kalshi and 54% on Polymarket.
What is the over/under for Colts vs Chiefs?
The market total sits near 46 points. Over 45.5 trades at 53% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and over 46.5 is 49% on Kalshi, as of September 16.
What are the Colts and Chiefs records?
The Chiefs are 1-0 after beating the Denver Broncos 31-10. The Colts are 0-1 after losing 41-23 at home to the Baltimore Ravens.
How do the Colts vs Chiefs markets resolve?
The moneyline resolves to the winner of the game, overtime included. Spread and total markets settle on the final score after the game goes final on September 20, 2026.