Jaguars vs Ravens Prediction Market Odds, November 5, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Jaguars | -9.5 50%3% | O 63.5 6% | 80%80% | 80% Kalshi |
â–¶Ravens | +9.5 50%97% | U 63.5 94% | 17%17% | 17% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Main ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Jacksonville Jaguars | -9.5 | O 63.5 | 80% Kalshi | |
â–¶Baltimore Ravens | +9.5 | U 63.5 | 17% Kalshi |
Jacksonville is an 80% favorite at Baltimore for Thursday Night Football, a complete reversal of a board that had the Ravens near 58% on both Kalshi and Polymarket through October 31. The flip came after Lamar Jackson's thumb injury in the 36-10 loss at Buffalo. The Jaguars (5-2) visit the Ravens (4-4) at M&T Bank Stadium at 8:15 PM ET on November 5, 2026, on a board with roughly $1.1M in cumulative volume. The live board above carries current moneyline, spread and total prices.
The Ravens went from a 58% home favorite to a 20% underdog in a single afternoon. Jacksonville now trades at 80% on Kalshi and 81% on Polymarket for Thursday night in Baltimore, and the entire move traces to the quarterback room: Lamar Jackson is headed for thumb surgery, his backup is unlikely to play, and the third-stringer is nursing an ankle injury on a short week.
Jaguars vs Ravens Market Context
Jackson returned on November 1 from a left high-ankle sprain that had cost him the previous three games, then hurt his right thumb on his first pass attempt at Buffalo. Ravens head coach Jesse Minter said after the 36-10 loss that Jackson will undergo surgery and go on injured reserve, and that the injury could be season-ending, per Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun (relayed by ESPN). Tyler Huntley also left that game with a toe injury, and Minter said Monday that Huntley "probably" won't play Thursday. That leaves undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, who finished the Buffalo game and is listed as questionable with an ankle injury after a limited Monday walkthrough, as of November 3.
Baltimore has lost three straight: 13-10 at Cleveland, 35-13 at home to Cincinnati and 36-10 at Buffalo, a combined 33 points scored in three games. The Ravens are 4-4 overall and 1-2 at M&T Bank Stadium. Derrick Henry is still the offense's engine with 632 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 158 carries, and Zay Flowers leads the receivers with 608 yards, but both now depend on whoever takes the snaps. The kicking spot is also unsettled: Minter said Tyler Loop is a candidate for injured reserve, and practice-squad kicker Jake Moody is expected to kick Thursday, per The Baltimore Sun. Linebacker Roquan Smith (foot, limited Monday) is questionable as of November 3.
The Jaguars are 5-2 and coming off a 42-7 rout of Indianapolis in which Trevor Lawrence completed 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns before giving way late. Lawrence has 1,690 yards, 17 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on the season. The concern is the backfield: lead back Bhayshul Tuten (492 rushing yards) was a non-participant at Monday's walkthrough with ankle and foot injuries, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. was limited with a hand injury, both questionable as of November 3. The defense lost two contributors for the season in the Colts game, defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (torn quadriceps, per coach Liam Coen) and safety Eric Murray (elbow). Jacksonville is 1-1 on the road.
What the Jaguars vs Ravens Spread and Total Say
The spread ladder centers on Jacksonville minus 9.5, which trades at 50% on both venues. Minus 7.5 sits at 54% and minus 10.5 at 45%, so the market is pricing a margin of roughly a touchdown plus a field goal. That rung is the cleanest record of the injury: Kalshi had Jaguars minus 9.5 at 12% to 13% on October 30 and 31, then closed at 51% on November 1. DraftKings, per ESPN's odds feed, now posts the same Jacksonville minus 9.5 after opening Baltimore minus 4.5, a 14-point swing in the point spread.
The total centers at 42.5, where the over trades at 50% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket; over 40.5 is 56% and over 44.5 is 42%. DraftKings opened this game at 49.5 and now posts 42.5, a seven-point drop that prices a Baltimore offense without its starting quarterback. Polymarket also lists Jacksonville at 73% to win the first half.
Movement is the story on this board. In Genius daily price captures, Baltimore closed between 57% and 59% on both venues every day from October 28 through October 31. On November 1 the Ravens closed at 24% on Kalshi and 28% on Polymarket, and by the November 2 close both venues had them at 21%. Jacksonville went the other way, from 43% to 44% before the injury to 80%. Kalshi and Polymarket stayed within a point of each other through the whole repricing, so there is no cross-platform gap to trade. The board has drawn roughly $1.1M in cumulative volume.
When the Jaguars vs Ravens Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday, November 5, 2026, with kickoff at 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video. Spread and total contracts settle against the official final score once the game goes final, and both platforms typically settle within hours. The board lists a separate Tie contract; if the game ends tied after overtime, each platform settles the moneyline under its own published rules.
Key Jaguars vs Ravens Catalysts
Baltimore's starting quarterback: Jackson is out after thumb surgery, Huntley (toe) "probably" won't play per Minter, and Fagnano is questionable with an ankle injury as of November 3. Any change to that chain moves this board.
The 9.5 rung: Jaguars minus 9.5 trades at 50% after sitting at 12% to 13% on Kalshi before the injury, and DraftKings posts the same number.
Tuten's ankle and foot: Jacksonville's lead rusher missed Monday's walkthrough, with Rodriguez also limited, so the Jaguars' run game is not fully settled.
The total at 42.5: down seven points from the 49.5 DraftKings opener, with the over at 49% to 50% across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Short week, depleted defense: both teams play on three days' rest, and Jacksonville lost Hamilton and Murray for the season on Sunday.
Related Jaguars vs Ravens Markets
This result feeds the season boards directly. The Ravens make-the-playoffs market and the Ravens season wins market are where Jackson's injury reprices the rest of Baltimore's year, while the Jaguars make-the-playoffs market tracks a 5-2 team now priced as a heavy road favorite. The AFC North division market and the AFC South division market carry the standings stakes, and the NFL hub lists every Week 9 game trading on both venues.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Thursday, November 5, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video. The winning team's moneyline contract pays $1 per share and the losing team's resolves to $0. Spread contracts settle against the official final score margin and total contracts settle against the combined official final score, using the league's official box score as the source of truth. A separate Tie contract is listed; if the game ends tied after overtime, each platform settles the moneyline under its own published rules. If the game is postponed, contracts settle on the rescheduled completion; if it is canceled, each platform applies its own void and refund rules.
Key Factors
- Baltimore quarterback chain: Lamar Jackson out after thumb surgery, Tyler Huntley (toe) probably out per Jesse Minter, Joe Fagnano questionable with an ankle injury as of November 3
- The 9.5 rung: Jaguars minus 9.5 trades at 50% after sitting at 12% to 13% on Kalshi on October 30 and 31, and DraftKings posts the same spread
- Total at 42.5: down seven points from the 49.5 DraftKings opener, with the over at 49% to 50% on Kalshi and Polymarket
- Jacksonville backfield: Bhayshul Tuten (ankle, foot) missed Monday's walkthrough and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (hand) was limited
- Short week on both sides, with Jacksonville losing DaVon Hamilton and Eric Murray for the season and Baltimore turning to kicker Jake Moody
- No cross-platform gap: Kalshi and Polymarket stayed within a point of each other through the full repricing on a $1.1M board
What are the current Jaguars vs Ravens odds?
As of November 3, 2026, Jacksonville is the favorite at an 80% implied win probability on Kalshi and 81% on Polymarket, with Baltimore at 21% and 20%. The live board above carries current prices, which move up to kickoff.
Why did the Jaguars vs Ravens line flip?
Baltimore closed between 57% and 59% on both venues from October 28 through October 31, then fell to 21% by November 2 after Lamar Jackson injured his right thumb at Buffalo on November 1. Coach Jesse Minter said Jackson needs surgery and will go on injured reserve, per The Baltimore Sun.
Who will start at quarterback for the Ravens against the Jaguars?
Jackson is out, and Minter said Monday that Tyler Huntley (toe) probably won't play. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, who finished the Buffalo game, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury as of November 3, 2026.
What is the spread and total for Jaguars vs Ravens?
The market centers on Jacksonville minus 9.5 at 50% on both venues and a 42.5 total with the over at 49% to 50%. DraftKings posts the same minus 9.5 and 42.5 per ESPN, after opening Baltimore minus 4.5 with a 49.5 total.
When does the Jaguars vs Ravens market resolve?
It resolves when the game goes final on Thursday, November 5, 2026. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium on Prime Video, and both Kalshi and Polymarket typically settle within hours of the final whistle.