Patriots vs Seahawks Prediction Market Odds, September 9, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Patriots | -3.5 32%40% | O 44.5 25%49% | 54%20% | 54% Kalshi |
▶Seahawks | +3.5 68%60% | U 44.5 75%51% | 44%43% | 44% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶New England Patriots | -3.5 | O 44.5 | 54% Kalshi | |
▶Seattle Seahawks | +3.5 | U 44.5 | 44% Kalshi |
Seattle is the moneyline favorite for the NFL Kickoff Game, priced at 63c on Kalshi to New England's 39c as of September 5, 2026, in a rematch of Super Bowl LX. Both teams finished 2025 at 14-3 before Seattle won the title 29-13, and the spread ladder is tighter than the trophy implies: Seattle -3.5 sits at 49c on roughly $149.6K of volume, the heaviest rung on the board's spread market. About $1.2M has traded across Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of the 8:20 PM ET kickoff at Lumen Field.
Seattle opens the 2026 season as a home favorite against the team it beat in Super Bowl LX, and the board says the gap is narrower than the trophy suggests. The Kalshi moneyline has the Seahawks at 63c and the Patriots at 39c as of September 5, 2026, on a board carrying about $1.2M in cumulative volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. Both clubs finished 14-3 last season. The NFL Kickoff Game starts at 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at Lumen Field in Seattle, on NBC.
Patriots vs Seahawks Market Context
Seattle finished 2025 at a franchise-best 14-3, won the NFC West for the first time since 2020, took the NFC's No. 1 seed for the first time since 2014, and beat New England 29-13 at Levi's Stadium for its second Super Bowl title. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the AP Offensive Player of the Year after 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns. Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards with 25 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a 99.1 rating in his first Seattle season.
Two subtractions shape the Seattle side of the price. Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl LX MVP, signed with Kansas City in free agency, and Zach Charbonnet is listed out, which leaves George Holani, rookie Jadarian Price and a questionable Emanuel Wilson as the backfield. Klint Kubiak left to become the Raiders head coach, so Mike Macdonald starts his third season working with the franchise's fourth offensive coordinator in four years. Cornerback Terrion Arnold and safety Nick Emmanwori are also on the report, Arnold out and Emmanwori questionable.
New England matched Seattle at 14-3 in Mike Vrabel's first season, won the AFC East for the first time since 2019, and tied the largest single-season turnaround in NFL history at 10 games. Vrabel took AP Coach of the Year and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels took Assistant Coach of the Year. Drake Maye completed 72.0% of his throws for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions with a 113.5 rating, though he absorbed 47 sacks doing it.
The Patriots then spent the offseason buying for this window. They sent a 2027 fifth-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick to Philadelphia on June 1 for A.J. Brown, who caught 78 passes for 1,003 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games with the Eagles, signed Romeo Doubs out of Green Bay, and imported guard Alijah Vera-Tucker from the Jets to attack that sack number. The offseason case for and against the price is laid out in the Patriots win total analysis.
Patriots vs Seahawks Spread and Total
The spread ladder carries more conviction than the moneyline. Seattle -3.5 is the heaviest rung on that ladder at roughly $149.6K in volume and prices at 49c, effectively a coin flip, while Seattle -2.5 trades at 59c on both Kalshi and Polymarket. That pair puts the true number right on three, tighter than a defending champion hosting an opener usually draws.
The total sits near 44.5. Over 44.5 prints 49c, over 43.5 prints 53c and over 45.5 prints 47c, all on Kalshi. Polymarket prices the same board and runs consistently under Kalshi at the tails, with over 62.5 at 7c against Kalshi's 10c and over 56.5 at 18c against Kalshi's 20c. The two books agree exactly through the middle (O/U 42.5 at 56c on both, O/U 26.5 at 93c on both), so the disagreement is confined to blowout scenarios rather than the core number, and the thin side of a tail market is the wrong place to read a signal.
Movement has been absent. Across every snapshot captured between September 4 and September 5, 2026, Seattle held 63c on the moneyline (21 captures), New England held 39c (23 captures) and Seattle -3.5 held 49c (26 captures). The board has not repriced since the week opened.
Player props are posted but unpriced. The board lists passing-yard ladders for Maye and Darnold from 149.5 to 349.5 plus anytime-touchdown contracts for Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, with no quote on either platform yet. Henderson, who ran for 911 yards at 5.1 a carry with 9 touchdowns as a rookie, is listed questionable.
When the Patriots vs Seahawks Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Lumen Field on September 9, 2026, with the winning contract paying $1 per share and the losing side settling at $0. The spread rungs settle on the final margin and the totals on combined points, both graded off the official final score once the game ends. Settlement follows on Kalshi and Polymarket the same night in most cases. A postponement past the resolution window, a cancellation, or a void follows each platform's own rules.
Key Patriots vs Seahawks Factors
Seattle's backfield: Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III is in Kansas City and Zach Charbonnet is out, leaving George Holani and rookie Jadarian Price to carry the opener.
A.J. Brown's Patriots debut: New England paid a 2027 fifth and a 2028 first for a receiver coming off 1,003 yards in 15 games, the single biggest change to its offense.
Maye's protection: 31 touchdowns to 8 interceptions is elite production, but 47 sacks is not, and Alijah Vera-Tucker was signed to fix it.
Darnold's giveaways: 14 interceptions in 2025 against a Patriots defense that reached the Super Bowl, now missing Harold Landry III and Brenden Schooler.
A new Seattle play-caller: the fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons after Klint Kubiak left for the Raiders job, and Week 1 is where scheme change shows up.
Cross-platform totals: Polymarket has printed the tail overs 2c to 3c under Kalshi while matching it through the middle, the only genuine price disagreement on the board.
Related Patriots vs Seahawks Markets
The season-long versions of this question trade alongside the game. The Super Bowl LXI market asks whether Seattle can repeat, the NFC West market prices the division Seattle won at 14-3, and the AFC East market prices the one New England took for the first time since 2019. The next game on the calendar is 49ers vs Rams in Melbourne the following night, and the rest of the slate sits on the NFL hub. The counterargument to Seattle repeating is in the Seahawks win total analysis. Current prices are on the live board above.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Lumen Field in Seattle on September 9, 2026. The winning team's contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle on the final margin of victory and total contracts on the combined points scored, both graded off the official final score. Kalshi and Polymarket finalize once the game is complete, typically the same night. If the game is postponed past the resolution window, canceled, or otherwise voided, each platform applies its own void and refund rules.
Key Factors
- Seattle's backfield after Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III signed with Kansas City and Zach Charbonnet was listed out, leaving George Holani and rookie Jadarian Price
- A.J. Brown's Patriots debut after New England traded a 2027 fifth-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick to Philadelphia on June 1 for a receiver with 1,003 yards in 15 games
- Drake Maye's protection: 31 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in 2025 but 47 sacks taken, with Alijah Vera-Tucker imported from the Jets to fix it
- Sam Darnold's 14 interceptions in 2025 against a Patriots defense that reached Super Bowl LX, now without Harold Landry III and Brenden Schooler
- Seattle's fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons after Klint Kubiak left to become the Raiders head coach
- Cross-platform totals: Polymarket prints the tail overs 2c to 3c under Kalshi while matching it exactly through the middle of the ladder
What are the current Patriots vs Seahawks odds?
As of September 5, 2026, Seattle is 63c and New England is 39c on the Kalshi moneyline. The live board above carries the current price.
What is the Patriots vs Seahawks spread and total?
The market has Seattle right around three points: Seattle -3.5 prices at 49c and Seattle -2.5 at 59c as of September 5, 2026. The total sits near 44.5, where the over prints 49c.
Where can I trade the Patriots vs Seahawks market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket carry this game, with about $1.2M in cumulative volume between them. The moneyline is quoted on Kalshi, while Polymarket prices the spread and the totals ladder alongside it.
Who is favored in Patriots vs Seahawks?
Seattle, at 63c on September 5, 2026, or roughly a 63% implied win probability before vig. The Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX and host this rematch as the defending champion.
When does the Patriots vs Seahawks market resolve?
On the final result of the NFL Kickoff Game at Lumen Field, which starts at 8:20 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2026 on NBC. The winning moneyline contract pays $1 per share once the game goes final.
What should I watch before Patriots vs Seahawks resolves?
TreVeyon Henderson's questionable tag for New England, Seattle's backfield without Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, and whether the line moves off Seattle -3.5, which has held 49c across every capture between September 4 and September 5, 2026.