The 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election market asks which party wins the most seats in the Riksdag on September 13, 2026. The Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is the dominant favorite, with Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Green Party (MP), and the Left Party (V) chasing well behind across a nine-party field. The board carries roughly $1.17M in cumulative cross-platform volume on Kalshi and Polymarket. The live board above ranks the current prices on every party.
The 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election market resolves on a single question: which party finishes with the most seats in the 349-member Riksdag after the September 13 vote. This is the party board, distinct from the separate Next Prime Minister of Sweden market, where coalition math rather than raw seat count decides the outcome. Nine parties trade here across Kalshi and Polymarket, and the cumulative volume sits near $1.17M.
The Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is the heavy chalk on the 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election board. The party has been the largest single bloc in the Riksdag for over a century of modern Swedish politics, and it led the seat count even in 2022 when it lost government to the right-bloc coalition. The market reflects that structural advantage: S trades far clear of the field, and the cross-platform prices on Kalshi and Polymarket sit close together, signaling agreement between the two exchanges. The live board above shows the current number. The open question for traders is not whether S leads the polls but whether the gap is wide enough to make the contract a value buy or a crowded favorite.
Behind the Social Democrats, the 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election market thins out quickly into a cluster of single-digit contenders. Sweden Democrats (SD), the national-conservative party that became the second-largest force in the Riksdag in 2022, is the most credible challenger to S for the top seat-count spot. The Moderate Party (M), which has supplied the prime minister since 2022 despite finishing third in seats, trades as a chase candidate here because leading the government is not the same as leading the seat count. The Green Party (MP) and the Left Party (V) round out the actively-priced names on the left flank, both trading as longshots for the largest-party title. Several smaller parties, including the Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), the Liberals (L), and the Citizens' Coalition (MED), appear on the board at the bottom of the field. The live board above carries the current cross-platform prices on every party.
The 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election market resolves on September 13, 2026, the date of the Swedish general election. It pays out to the single party that wins the most seats in the Riksdag, as certified by the official Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) results. Each party contract pays $1 per share if that party finishes first in seats and $0 otherwise. A tie in seats, a postponed election, or any voiding event is settled under each platform's published election rules.
The seat-count race is one of two Swedish markets worth tracking together. The Next Prime Minister of Sweden odds cover the coalition outcome, where the largest party does not automatically form the government. For another European seat-count board, compare the 2026 Berlin Parliamentary Election market. Browse the full slate of election contracts on the politics prediction markets hub, and see who curates and maintains this page at the Genius Staff profile.
Resolves to the single party that wins the most seats in the 349-member Riksdag in the Swedish general election held September 13, 2026, as certified by the official results from the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten). Each party contract pays $1 per share if that party finishes first in seat count; all other party contracts resolve to $0. If two parties tie for the most seats, if the election is postponed past the resolution date, or if the vote is otherwise voided, the market settles under each platform's published election resolution rules.
The Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is the dominant favorite to win the most seats in the Riksdag, trading far clear of an eight-party chase field on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The live board on this page shows the current cross-platform price for every party.
It resolves on September 13, 2026, the date of the Swedish general election, based on the official seat count certified by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten). The party with the most seats in the 349-member Riksdag wins.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list contracts for which party wins the most seats, covering up to nine parties. Combined cumulative volume across the two platforms is roughly $1.17M, so prices can be compared side by side for any party.
The Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is the clear favorite, reflecting its long-running status as the largest single bloc in the Riksdag. Sweden Democrats (SD) and the Moderate Party (M) are the main chase contenders for the top seat-count spot.
Watch the national polling average through the August and September campaign, whether Sweden Democrats and the Moderate Party split the right-wing vote, and any small party flirting with the 4% threshold. Campaign debates and policy news are the most likely price movers before the September 13 vote.