The 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election market asks which party takes the most seats in the 349-member Riksdag on September 13, 2026. The Swedish Social Democrats have finished first in every Swedish general election since 1914 and polled near 30% in three August surveys, with Sweden Democrats and the Moderate Party fighting over second. Nine party contracts trade on Kalshi and Polymarket across roughly $1.39M in cumulative volume, and the live board above ranks the current price on each one.
The 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election market pays out on one number: which party finishes with the most seats in the 349-member Riksdag once the September 13, 2026 vote is counted. That is a different question from who governs. In 2022 the Social Democrats won 107 seats and lost power anyway, because the four right-bloc parties added up to 176 against 173 and handed the premiership to a party that finished third. Nine party contracts trade here across Kalshi and Polymarket on roughly $1.39M in cumulative volume.
The Swedish Social Democrats have finished first in every Swedish general election since September 1914. That streak, not any single survey, is what the top contract on the 2026 Sweden Parliamentary Election board is priced against. The three August polls land in almost the same spot: Novus had S at 30.1% in fieldwork run August 3 to 16, Verian had 30.5% over the identical window, and Demoskop had 30.2% between July 29 and August 10. The party polled 30.33% in 2022 and converted that into 107 seats. Four years in opposition moved the number by a rounding error, which is the whole story. Magdalena Andersson has led the party since 2021 and would return to the prime minister's office if the left bloc converts its polling lead. The live board above carries the current cross-platform price.
Second place is a real race. First place is not. Sweden Democrats polled 19.1% with Novus, 18.5% with Verian, and 20.2% with Demoskop, against 20.54% and 73 seats in 2022. The Moderate Party came in at 18.3%, 17.3%, and 16.8% across the same three surveys, down from 19.10% and 68 seats. Neither party is within nine points of the Social Democrats in any August poll, which is why both trade in low single digits here despite being the two biggest forces in the governing arrangement. Jimmie Åkesson's SD backs Ulf Kristersson's cabinet from outside it, and the two sides moved to change that: on March 13, 2026, the Liberals and SD struck a 15-point deal handing SD cabinet posts if the bloc wins a majority. The Liberals held an emergency congress on March 22 that reelected Simona Mohamsson by 95 votes to 80 abstentions, preserving the line and exposing how split the party is over it.
The Liberals are the live threshold story on this board. L polled 1.9%, 1.9%, and 2.4% in the August surveys against a 4% national bar, after squeaking through at 4.61% in 2022. A party under 4% loses every one of its 16 seats unless it takes 12% in a single constituency, and those seats redistribute across the parties that survive. That rewrites the majority math without touching the question of who finishes first. The Green Party (MP), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), and Christian Democrats (KD) all poll clear of the bar in the 6% to 8% band. The ninth contract, the Citizens' Coalition (MED), took 0.18% in 2022 and holds eleven municipal seats and none in the Riksdag.
Volume on this board is not distributed the way the prices are. The Sweden Democrats contract carries roughly $557K in lifetime volume and the Moderate Party contract about $417K. Those two names account for close to 70% of the board's $1.39M, and no August poll puts either within striking distance of first. The Social Democrats contract, the one the market treats as nearly settled, has traded about $129K, under a quarter of what has moved through the SD line.
The split between the two exchanges is more lopsided still. Polymarket carries close to $1.37M of the total. Kalshi's side of the same nine questions has taken roughly $21K, and the Kalshi books on the Moderate Party, Green Party, and Left Party contracts have each seen under $500 of lifetime turnover. Polymarket is where the depth is, and the widest cross-platform gaps sit precisely on the contracts where Kalshi's book is thinnest. That is a liquidity artifact of a one-sided board, not a signal that the two exchanges disagree about Sweden. Four of the nine parties, the Centre Party, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Citizens' Coalition, are listed on Polymarket only. For contrast, the 2026 Berlin Parliamentary Election odds, which resolve one week later on September 20, 2026, run about $3.47M with both books genuinely active.
The market resolves on the Swedish general election held September 13, 2026, and pays the single party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Riksdag, using the official count certified by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten). Each party contract pays $1 per share if that party finishes first in seats and $0 otherwise. If two parties tie on seats, the contract goes to whichever took more valid votes; if that is also level, it goes to the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically. If the election is not held by December 31, 2026, the market settles to Other.
The seat count and the government are separate bets with separate boards. The Next Prime Minister of Sweden odds carry about $4.05M, nearly three times this board, and settle on the same September 13 date to whoever the Riksdag installs, which is coalition arithmetic rather than raw seats. Germany runs its own state-level seat-count contracts on the same logic, including the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Parliamentary Election market. For a longer-dated European board, the 2027 French Presidential Election odds trade on more than $118M. The full slate of election contracts sits on the politics prediction markets hub.
Resolves to the single party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 349-member Riksdag in the Swedish general election held September 13, 2026, as certified by the official results of the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten). Each party contract pays $1 per share if that party finishes first in seat count; all other party contracts resolve to $0. If two parties tie on seats, the market resolves in favor of the party that received more valid votes, and if that is also tied, in favor of the party whose abbreviation appears first alphabetically. If the election is not held by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to Other.
The Swedish Social Democrats trade as the dominant favorite to win the most Riksdag seats, with the remaining eight party contracts priced in low single digits. The live board on this page shows the current Kalshi and Polymarket price on all nine parties.
It resolves on the Swedish general election held September 13, 2026, using the official seat count certified by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten). If the election is not held by December 31, 2026, the market settles to Other.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the market, but the depth is heavily one-sided: Polymarket carries close to $1.37M of the roughly $1.39M in lifetime volume while Kalshi has taken about $21K. Four of the nine parties, the Centre Party, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Citizens' Coalition, are listed on Polymarket only.
The Swedish Social Democrats, who have finished first in every Swedish general election since 1914 and polled 30.1% to 30.5% across the three August 2026 surveys from Novus, Verian, and Demoskop. Sweden Democrats and the Moderate Party are the chase names at 17% to 20%.
Watch whether the Liberals climb back over the 4% threshold from 1.9% to 2.4%, since their 16 seats redistribute if they fall out, and watch whether Sweden Democrats or the Moderate Party takes second. The closing televised debates and September 13 turnout are the final inputs.