Politics8 ThresholdsFutures

2026 Brazil Presidential Election - First Round Margin of Victory

Current Leader

Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%40%

Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% at 23%(+17pt lead)

$2.1M volume8 thresholdsKalshi, PolymarketResolves today

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line5· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board8 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

1+Kalshi

90%90%10%

3+Kalshi

97%97%3%

5+Kalshi

45%45%55%

6+lineKalshi

51%51%49%

7+Kalshi

29%29%71%

9+Kalshi

1%1%99%

11+Kalshi

5%5%95%

12+Polymarket

20%20%80%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Oct 12

We Are Here

Oct 12

Resolution

Oct 4

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.

Politics8 ThresholdsFutures

2026 Brazil Presidential Election - First Round Margin of Victory

Current Leader

Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%40%

Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% at 23%(+17pt lead)

$2.1M volume8 thresholdsKalshi, PolymarketResolves today

Market ForecastChance by threshold

Market line5· the 50% crossing

Chance of reaching each threshold · the curve crosses 50% at the market's central line

Threshold Board8 thresholds

ThresholdChanceYesNo

1+Kalshi

90%90%10%

3+Kalshi

97%97%3%

5+Kalshi

45%45%55%

6+lineKalshi

51%51%49%

7+Kalshi

29%29%71%

9+Kalshi

1%1%99%

11+Kalshi

5%5%95%

12+Polymarket

20%20%80%

Analysis

Analysis content will be generated by the pipeline.

Timeline

Market Created

Oct 12

We Are Here

Oct 12

Resolution

Oct 4

⚠Informational content only. Not financial or betting advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss.