The 2028 Democratic presidential candidate field market trades across roughly $773K in cumulative volume on Kalshi, pricing the probability that each named Democrat actually enters the 2028 presidential race rather than who wins the nomination. 38 names now carry their own entry contract, and the top of the board belongs to Gavin Newsom, Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, Pete Buttigieg, and Cory Booker. The live board above ranks the current price on every name; the market resolves per candidate as entries become official ahead of the 2028 primaries, against a January 1, 2028 settlement reference.
The 2028 Democratic presidential candidate field market answers a different question than the nomination board: not who wins, but who runs. Each contract is a per-candidate probability that a named Democrat formally enters the 2028 presidential race, so a high price reflects expectation of a campaign launch, not strength in a primary. That second question belongs to the 2028 Democratic nominee market. Kalshi now lists 38 separate entry questions across roughly $773K in cumulative volume, and 15 of those names price above 60c, which is why the board reads as a crowded field rather than a short list. The live board above ranks every contender by current price; this page covers who the field is, what structurally moves an entry probability, and exactly how each contract resolves.
Gavin Newsom, Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, and Pete Buttigieg form the top tier of the 2028 Democratic presidential field, four names the board treats as near-certain entrants. Newsom and Beshear are sitting governors who built national profiles well ahead of the cycle. Buttigieg brings a 2020 campaign and a cabinet term, which gives the market a template it can price against. Emanuel is the least conventional of the four, a former Chicago mayor, Obama chief of staff, and ambassador to Japan who now prices alongside sitting governors. At this tier the probability reflects accumulated signals, early-state travel, fundraising infrastructure, and public posture, rather than any single announcement. The risk to a high entry price is always the same, a quiet decision to sit the cycle out, which the board cannot price until it happens.
Cory Booker, Ro Khanna, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, J.B. Pritzker, and Mark Kelly make up the second tier, all priced as likely entrants without the near-certainty of the top four. Harris is the most consequential name in that group, because a former vice president and 2024 nominee entering the race would reprice every other contract on the board. Shapiro and Pritzker run Pennsylvania and Illinois, two of the party's most-watched governorships. Khanna and Kelly come from opposite wings of the party, a California progressive and an Arizona senator with a moderate voting record, and the board prices both as more likely to run than not.
Below them, Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Chris Murphy, Wes Moore, and Mitch Landrieu hold the 60s. The field then flattens into a long tail that runs from Elissa Slotkin and Jared Polis through Ruben Gallego, Gretchen Whitmer, Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill, and Roy Cooper, and finally into the low-probability celebrity and legacy contracts on Stephen A. Smith, Jon Stewart, Mark Cuban, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. Spanberger and Sherrill are the newest governors in that group, both elected in 2025, and the board is still deciding whether a first term is a launching pad or a reason to stay put.
The most useful read on this board is where the money sits, not where the prices sit. Ocasio-Cortez and Harris carry the two largest books on the market at roughly $119K and $115K in cumulative volume, ahead of every name priced above them. Newsom leads on price with about $42K traded, less than half of either. Wes Moore, priced 12 places below Newsom, has drawn about $60K. Traders concentrate on the names whose decisions are genuinely unresolved rather than the ones the field already assumes are running, and that gap between price rank and volume rank is the clearest map of where the real disagreement is.
The 2028 Democratic presidential candidate field market resolves per candidate as each named Democrat's status becomes official ahead of the 2028 primaries. A contract resolves Yes when that candidate formally enters the Democratic presidential race, typically marked by an official campaign announcement or filing, and No if the candidate does not run by the market's settlement date. The listed settlement reference is January 1, 2028, but each individual entry question is fixed the moment that candidate's decision becomes official. Because a candidate can enter without winning anything, this board is not mutually exclusive and the sum of all 38 prices runs far above 100% by design.
The entry-field market is the companion to the 2028 Democratic nominee odds, which price who wins the nomination rather than who runs, and the 2028 Republican candidate field on the other side of the aisle. Once both fields harden, the 2028 presidential matchup market prices which two names actually face each other, and the 2028 presidential winning party market tracks which side takes the White House. The full politics prediction markets hub collects every election, nomination, and field question we cover across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolves per candidate as each named Democrat's status in the 2028 presidential race becomes official ahead of the primaries. An individual candidate's contract resolves Yes when that person formally enters the Democratic presidential race, typically marked by an official campaign announcement or filing, and No if the candidate does not run by the market's settlement date. The winning side of each contract pays $1 per share; the other side resolves to $0. The listed market settlement reference is January 1, 2028, but each entry question is fixed at the moment that candidate's decision becomes official. Because multiple Democrats can enter, the 38 contracts are not mutually exclusive and their prices sum well above 100%. This market is distinct from the nomination market, which resolves to the single candidate who wins the Democratic nomination. Void scenarios resolve per platform-specific rules.
The live board above ranks current prices on all 38 candidate entry questions on Kalshi. The top tier is Gavin Newsom, Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, and Pete Buttigieg, with Cory Booker, Ro Khanna, Kamala Harris, and Josh Shapiro just behind them.
Each candidate's entry question resolves as that person's decision becomes official ahead of the 2028 primaries. The market carries a settlement reference of January 1, 2028, but each contract is fixed the moment a candidate formally enters or declines the race.
This market trades on Kalshi, which lists a separate entry question for each of the 38 named Democrats. Polymarket does not carry a matching per-candidate entry board, so this is a single-platform market rather than a cross-platform comparison.
As of August 18, 2026, Gavin Newsom carries the highest entry probability at 86c, with Rahm Emanuel at 85c, Andy Beshear at 84c, and Pete Buttigieg at 83c right behind him. Because multiple Democrats can run, these are not competing probabilities.
The field market prices whether each Democrat runs, and any number of them can run at once, so the 38 contracts are not mutually exclusive and currently sum to roughly 1,638c. The nomination market is the exclusive one, resolving to the single candidate who wins the nomination.
Watch for official campaign announcements above all, since a filing resolves a contract outright. Then track the November 2026 midterm results, early-primary-state activity, and any signal from Kamala Harris or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who carry the two largest books on the board at roughly $119K and $115K.