No human has stood on the moon since December 1972, and this contract asks whether that drought ends in 2026. It is a binary Yes/No question resolving on whether any crewed mission lands on the moon by December 31, 2026, and it has drawn roughly $1.95M in cumulative volume. The live board above carries the current cross-platform price; the body below covers what the contract is asking, why the Artemis timeline matters, and exactly how it resolves.
Apollo 17 was the last time humans walked on the moon, and that was December 1972. This contract puts a hard deadline on the next one: does any crewed mission touch down on the lunar surface before 2026 ends? It is a single binary Yes/No question, not a field of contenders, and it trades on Polymarket against roughly $1.95M in cumulative volume. The live board above shows where the price sits right now.
The question hangs almost entirely on NASA's Artemis program. Artemis II is the first crewed flight of the campaign, but it is a lunar flyby with astronauts aboard, not a landing. The crew loops around the moon and returns without ever touching the surface, which means an Artemis II success would not satisfy this contract on its own. The first actual crewed touchdown is slated for Artemis III, a mission that has repeatedly slipped to the right on NASA's public schedule and now sits beyond 2026 in most planning documents.
That gap between a flyby and a landing is the entire story of this market. A reader who sees Artemis headlines and assumes a moon landing is imminent is conflating two very different missions. Artemis III depends on hardware that is still being qualified, including the crewed lunar lander and the spacesuits, and any landing also requires the orbital refueling and uncrewed demonstration steps to clear first. Each of those is a gate that has to close before a human boot reaches regolith, and each has slipped before.
The other live path is non-NASA. China has stated a goal of landing astronauts on the moon, but its public target sits at the end of the decade, not 2026. No other crewed lunar program is close to a touchdown inside this window. So the contract is effectively a single-variable bet on whether Artemis III, or a surprise crewed mission from anyone, lands a human on the moon in the next several months. The live board above reflects how the market weighs that.
This market resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It settles Yes if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between the contract's creation and that deadline, and No otherwise. The resolution language is deliberately generous on the Yes side: a touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard is enough, regardless of technical complications after landing. The source of truth is a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single agency feed, so a confirmed crewed touchdown reported across major outlets settles the contract.
The same space-and-frontier-tech thesis drives several nearby contracts. Track the SpaceX IPO valuation 2026 market for how traders price the company most tied to the crewed lander effort, and compare it against the broader measles cases 2026 threshold market for a read on how prediction markets handle dated science questions. Browse the full tech prediction markets hub for adjacent contracts, and see the Genius Staff market coverage for how these pages are kept current.
Resolves Yes if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between the contract's creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and No otherwise. A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard is sufficient to resolve Yes, regardless of technical complications that follow the landing. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single agency feed. An uncrewed lunar landing or a crewed lunar flyby that never touches the surface does not count toward a Yes resolution.
The contract trades on Polymarket as a binary Yes/No question against roughly $1.95M in cumulative volume. The live board above shows the current Yes and No prices in real time.
It resolves on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It settles Yes if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon by that deadline, and No otherwise.
The contract is listed on Polymarket as a single Yes/No market. There is currently no matching Kalshi listing, so it trades on one platform rather than cross-platform.
Any crewed mission touching down on the moon by December 31, 2026 resolves Yes, regardless of technical complications after landing. A crewed flyby like Artemis II that never lands, or an uncrewed landing, does not count.
Watch the Artemis III schedule, since it is the only realistic path to a Yes and its public date has repeatedly slipped past 2026. NASA budget shifts and lander readiness updates are the next catalysts to move the line.