Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Prediction Market Odds, August 22, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Hernandez | — | O 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Rodrigues | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Anthony Hernandez | — | O 0.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Gregory Rodrigues | — | U 0.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
Anthony Hernandez (15-3) is the 65c favorite over Gregory Rodrigues (19-6) at 36c in the UFC Sacramento main event, and Kalshi and Polymarket price both sides identically, leaving no cross-platform edge on the moneyline. The board has taken roughly $465K in lifetime volume, the most of the 13 bouts on the August 22, 2026 card at Golden 1 Center. Hernandez has 9 submissions among 15 wins; Rodrigues has landed 58% of his wins by knockout.
The UFC Sacramento main event is the rare five-round headliner where both exchanges have landed on the identical number. Anthony Hernandez (15-3) prices at 65c on Kalshi and 65c on Polymarket, Gregory Rodrigues (19-6) sits at 36c on both, and the Hernandez vs Rodrigues board carries roughly $465K in lifetime cross-platform volume, the largest of the 13 bouts on the card. That 101c two-sided sum is 1c of book margin, which normalizes Hernandez to about a 64% win probability. The live board above holds the current prices; what follows is why they sit where they do.
Hernandez vs Rodrigues Market Context
The fight headlines UFC Fight Night at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California on Saturday, August 22, 2026, scheduled for five rounds at middleweight. Prelims open at 5:00 PM ET and the main card starts at 8:00 PM ET, with the full card streaming on Paramount+ in the United States. ESPN lists 13 scheduled bouts, and every one of them has a live two-sided or one-sided board on this site. UFC's own preview frames the headliner as a meeting of Top 15 middleweights and a stylistic clash between "the high-pace, high-volume approach of Hernandez and Rodrigues' fight-changing power."
Liquidity is lopsided by platform, which matters for reading the price. Kalshi carries roughly $387K of the lifetime total across its two fighter tickets, and Polymarket carries roughly $77K on its single winner market. The remaining volume sits in Polymarket's method and round props, which are thin enough to be treated as directional rather than authoritative.
The snapshot series this board holds runs about 11 hours, from Friday evening Eastern through roughly 7:20 AM ET Saturday, and across that window the moneyline barely moved. Kalshi held Hernandez at 65c through all 82 captures and Rodrigues at 36c through all 86. Polymarket ticked once, 64c to 65c on Hernandez, erasing the last cent of cross-platform gap. There is no earlier history on this board, so the honest statement is narrow: inside the captures that exist, the two books have agreed and stayed agreed. Nothing here supports a claim about where the line opened days ago.
Anthony Hernandez at 65c in the Hernandez vs Rodrigues Market
Hernandez is 15-3 with 9 submission wins, 3 knockouts and 3 decisions, an 80% finish rate that runs almost entirely through the grappling. The Dunnigan, California native rode an eight-fight UFC winning streak into February 2026 before Sean Strickland stopped him by TKO at 2:23 of round three in Houston. That was the first blemish on a run that included a fourth-round rear-naked choke of Roman Dolidze in August 2025, a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen in February 2025, a fifth-round TKO of Michel Pereira in October 2024, and a second-round rear-naked choke of Roman Kopylov in February 2024.
Dolidze is on this same card against Reinier de Ridder, and that light heavyweight board is a useful cross-check on how the market currently rates the man Hernandez choked out a year ago. The pattern behind the 65c is straightforward: Hernandez wins by volume, pressure and back-takes, and 9 of his 15 wins never reached the judges.
Gregory Rodrigues at 36c in the Hernandez vs Rodrigues Market
Rodrigues is 19-6 with a 79% finish rate weighted the other direction, 58% of his wins by knockout or TKO against 21% by submission and 21% by decision. He has won three straight since Jared Cannonier stopped him in the fourth round of his first headlining assignment in February 2025: a TKO of Jack Hermansson at UFC 317 in June 2025, a decision over Roman Kopylov at UFC 322 in November 2025, and a first-round knockout of Brunno Ferreira at UFC 326 on March 7, 2026. UFC's preview calls him one of the strongest, most powerful individuals in the 185-pound weight class.
The vulnerability the 36c reflects is on the other side of the ledger. Rodrigues has been finished by knockout or TKO in 67% of his six losses, and both men share a win over Kopylov, which is the closest thing this matchup has to a common opponent. Rodrigues is a former LFA middleweight champion, as is Hernandez, and the two arrive from opposite ends of the same division.
Hernandez vs Rodrigues Method and Round Props
Polymarket lists the method and round markets; Kalshi does not on this board. Fight to Go the Distance trades at 24c and has drifted down from 27c across the captured window, so the market is buying more finish, not less. Rodrigues to win by KO or TKO has moved the furthest, 27c to 33c, while Hernandez to win by KO or TKO has firmed 25c to 28c. Won by submission sits at 24c.
The internal read is the interesting part. Rodrigues prices at 36c to win and 33c to win specifically by knockout, meaning the market gives him almost no equity in a decision or a submission. Hernandez prices at 65c to win but only 28c by knockout, so his implied path is a choke or a scorecard. Round totals lean early: O/U 1.5 rounds at 61c, O/U 2.5 at 48c, O/U 3.5 at 37c, O/U 4.5 at 16c. Treat all of these as low-conviction signals, since the distance prop has taken about $1.1K in lifetime volume and the O/U 1.5 line about $131. Those are opinions, not deep books.
When the Hernandez vs Rodrigues Market Resolves
The market settles on the official result announced in the cage on the night of Saturday, August 22, 2026, with settlement posted on both platforms after the promotion confirms the decision. Each fighter contract pays $1 per share if that fighter is declared the winner and $0 otherwise, so a draw or a no contest leaves neither side paying out. Kalshi's posted settlement window runs into the early hours of Sunday, August 23, 2026, in UTC terms, which is the same night Eastern.
Key Hernandez vs Rodrigues Catalysts
- Zero cross-platform spread: Kalshi and Polymarket both price Hernandez at 65c and Rodrigues at 36c, so there is no better side of the same question to shop on this board today.
- Hernandez's grappling path: 9 of his 15 career wins are submissions, and only 28c of Polymarket's method market is assigned to him winning by knockout.
- Rodrigues's power as his only lane: he is 36c to win and 33c to win by knockout, and 58% of his career wins came that way.
- The Strickland aftermath: Hernandez's eight-fight streak ended by TKO in round three in February 2026, and how he handles power early is the fight's central question.
- Five-round conditioning: this is a main event with 25 minutes available, and the round-total ladder prices O/U 3.5 rounds at just 37c.
- Thin prop books: the distance market carries roughly $1.1K lifetime volume, so prop moves are worth watching for direction rather than sizing against.
Related Hernandez vs Rodrigues Markets
The rest of the Sacramento card trades alongside this one. The heavyweight co-feature between Serghei Spivac and Vitor Petrino is the second-biggest main-card board, the lightweight matchup between MarQuel Mederos and Mason Jones is the tightest priced of the group, and the women's flyweight bout between Carli Judice and Jeisla Chaves has drawn heavy cross-platform interest for a non-headline fight. Every scheduled bout on this card, plus the rest of the promotion's calendar, sits on the UFC prediction market hub.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to the fighter declared the winner of the Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues middleweight main event at UFC Fight Night in Sacramento, California on Saturday, August 22, 2026, scheduled for five rounds. Settlement follows the official result announced by the promotion and the California State Athletic Commission, posted on Kalshi and Polymarket after the bout is confirmed, with Kalshi's settlement window running into the early hours of Sunday, August 23, 2026 in UTC terms. Each fighter contract pays $1 per share if that fighter wins by knockout, technical knockout, submission, disqualification or decision, and $0 otherwise. A draw or a no contest means neither fighter is declared the winner and both fighter contracts settle at $0 under each platform's published rules. If the bout is canceled, scratched at weigh-ins or postponed beyond the settlement window, each platform voids or reschedules the market under its own event rules.
Key Factors
- Zero cross-platform spread: Hernandez 65c and Rodrigues 36c on both Kalshi and Polymarket
- Hernandez's grappling path: 9 of his 15 career wins are submissions
- Rodrigues at 36c to win and 33c to win by knockout, leaving almost no decision equity
- Hernandez's eight-fight win streak ended by Sean Strickland TKO in round three, February 2026
- Five scheduled rounds with O/U 3.5 rounds priced at 37c on Polymarket
- Thin prop books: the distance market carries roughly $1.1K in lifetime volume
What are the current Hernandez vs Rodrigues odds?
As of the morning of August 22, 2026, Anthony Hernandez trades at 65c on both Kalshi and Polymarket and Gregory Rodrigues at 36c on both. The 101c two-sided sum is 1c of book margin, normalizing Hernandez to roughly a 64% win probability.
Who is favored in the Hernandez vs Rodrigues main event?
Hernandez is the favorite at 65c, implying about a 64% chance of winning. Rodrigues at 36c is the underdog, and Polymarket assigns 33c of that 36c to him winning specifically by knockout or TKO.
Where can I trade the Hernandez vs Rodrigues market?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the fight. Kalshi carries roughly $387K of the board's lifetime volume across its two fighter tickets and Polymarket roughly $77K on its winner market, plus the method and round props that only Polymarket lists.
When does the Hernandez vs Rodrigues market resolve?
It resolves on the official result of the five-round middleweight main event at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026. The main card starts at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+, with prelims from 5:00 PM ET, and settlement posts after the promotion confirms the decision.
What should I watch before Hernandez vs Rodrigues resolves?
Watch the method props, which have moved more than the moneyline: Rodrigues to win by KO or TKO has climbed from 27c to 33c while Fight to Go the Distance has slipped from 27c to 24c across the captured window. Those books are thin, near $1.1K lifetime on the distance line, so read them as direction rather than conviction.