Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo Prediction Market Odds, August 8, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Ferreira | — | O 2.5 44% | 62%63% | 63% Polymarket |
▶Quarantillo | — | U 2.5 56% | 40%38% | 40% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Diego Ferreira | — | O 2.5 | 63% Polymarket | |
▶Billy Quarantillo | — | U 2.5 | 40% Kalshi |
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Diego Ferreira is the 62.5c favorite over Billy Quarantillo (62c Kalshi, 63c Polymarket) in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld, with Quarantillo priced at 39c (40c Kalshi, 38c Polymarket). Both books agree inside 2c, so there is no cross-platform edge on the moneyline, and the price has held flat through the pre-fight session. The market is backing the 41-year-old Brazilian (19-7) over a 37-year-old moving up to lightweight for the first time after 19 months out with a knee injury, and the live board above carries the current Kalshi and Polymarket prices plus the Polymarket rounds and method ladders.
Diego Ferreira and Billy Quarantillo meet in a lightweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, August 8, 2026, with the main card scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The board has drawn roughly $54.9K in cumulative volume across Kalshi and Polymarket and prices Ferreira at 62.5c to Quarantillo's 39c. Two fighters on two-fight losing streaks, a combined 78 years of age, and a 19-month layoff on one side make this the most finish-weighted contest on the card, and the props agree: the Polymarket ladder gives the fight only a 29c chance of reaching the final horn.
Ferreira vs Quarantillo Records and Recent Form
Ferreira (19-7) is 41 and marking 12 years on the UFC roster, with 6 performance bonuses and 7 career submission wins alongside 5 knockouts. His form is the problem. He was stopped by Alexander Hernandez by TKO at 3:46 of round two on September 13, 2025, and before that dropped a unanimous decision to Grant Dawson on January 18, 2025. His last win was a third-round TKO of Mateusz Rebecki on May 11, 2024. He lands 4.70 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy, absorbs 3.46, and defends 58% of takedowns, with a 74-inch reach that is 4 inches longer than his opponent's.
Quarantillo (18-7) is 37 and has not competed since December 14, 2024, when Cub Swanson stopped him with a right cross at 1:36 of round three at UFC Tampa. Before that he was submitted by Youssef Zalal by rear-naked choke in round two on March 23, 2024. The 19-month absence was knee surgery and rehab, and he is using the return to move up from featherweight permanently, saying he could not keep cutting from roughly 175 pounds. This is his first UFC bout at 155 pounds. He is the higher-volume striker on paper at 7.44 significant strikes per minute and 54% accuracy, with a 1.47 takedown average and a career finish rate above 70% (8 of his 18 wins by knockout, 5 by submission).
The common opponent is instructive. Quarantillo stopped Alexander Hernandez by standing TKO in round two on December 10, 2022. Hernandez is the same fighter who knocked Ferreira out in September 2025.
What the Ferreira vs Quarantillo Board Is Pricing
Ferreira at 62.5c implies roughly 63% before vig, which lines up with a sportsbook price near -175. The books are tight: Kalshi has Ferreira at 62c and Quarantillo at 40c, Polymarket has 63c and 38c. That is a 1c gap on the favorite and a 2c gap on the underdog, under the 3c threshold where a genuine cross-platform value spot opens up. Anyone taking Quarantillo gets the better number on Polymarket at 38c; anyone taking Ferreira gets it on Kalshi at 62c. The Kalshi book sums to 102c and Polymarket to 101c, so the overround is thin on both sides.
The line has not moved. Ferreira opened the tracked session at 62c on Kalshi and 63c on Polymarket and sat at exactly those prices through the latest snapshot, with Quarantillo pinned at 40c and 38c. There is no steam here, which is consistent with a matchup where neither man has fought recently enough to generate fresh information.
The secondary markets, which trade on Polymarket only, are where the read gets specific. The rounds ladder prices the fight past 0.5 rounds at 83c, past 1.5 rounds at 55c, and past 2.5 rounds at 44c, a steep decay that says the market expects a stoppage somewhere in the middle rounds. The method ladder backs it up: a knockout or TKO by either fighter trades at 47c, Ferreira by knockout at 32c, Quarantillo by knockout at 23c, submission at 17c, and the fight going the distance at just 29c. Add the two knockout legs together and roughly 55c of the 100c method board is stoppage by strikes. That is the single clearest statement on this fight: three of Ferreira's last four losses and both of Quarantillo's recent defeats came by finish, and the market has priced the durability question rather than the skill question.
The stylistic read runs through pace and chin. Quarantillo throws more, lands more accurately, and adds a takedown threat Ferreira has historically leaked, but he is doing it at a new weight against a longer man with 7 submission wins. Ferreira has the reach, the grappling pedigree out of Fortis MMA, and the harder single shot. Neither has shown he can absorb a clean one at this stage of his career, which is why the distance leg sits at 29c rather than the 40c-plus a three-round lightweight fight normally carries.
When the Ferreira vs Quarantillo Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the fighter whose hand is raised when the bout is decided at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld on Saturday, August 8, 2026, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. This is a three-round non-title lightweight bout with no draw contract on the board, so a knockout, submission, technical stoppage, disqualification, or judges' decision all settle the same two-way market. The rounds and method contracts settle on the official result posted by the promotion, with the round and time of stoppage determining the over/under legs. If the bout is cancelled, postponed beyond the card, or ruled a no-contest, each platform voids and refunds per its own rules rather than paying either side.
Key Ferreira vs Quarantillo Catalysts
Weigh-in result: Quarantillo's first lightweight cut after a 19-month layoff is the largest unpriced variable on the board.
Ring rust: Quarantillo has not fought since December 14, 2024; Ferreira has been out since September 13, 2025.
Durability: the method board prices knockout or TKO at 47c against 29c for the distance, and both fighters have been stopped in their last outings.
Reach and grappling: Ferreira's 74-inch reach and 7 submission wins against Quarantillo's 1.47 takedown average and 54% striking accuracy.
Cross-platform pricing: Kalshi and Polymarket sit within 2c on both sides, so the value is in the Polymarket-only rounds and method ladders rather than the moneyline.
Related UFC Vegas 120 Markets
The card is headlined by the lightweight main event between Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld, a matchup with a direct line to this fight given Gamrot stopped Ferreira in 2021. The featherweight bout between Darren Elkins and Yadier del Valle carries the same veteran-versus-prospect shape, and the women's strawweight contest between Amanda Lemos and Alexia Thainara is the third ranked bout on the main card. For the longer-dated view of the division both of these men fight in, the UFC lightweight title market prices the belt through year-end, and the full slate of live fight boards sits on the UFC hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter who wins the Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld on Saturday, August 8, 2026, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. The scheduled three-round contest has no draw contract, so any official result (knockout, technical knockout, submission, disqualification, or judges' decision) settles the two-way moneyline, with the winning fighter's contract paying $1 per share and the loser's paying $0. The Polymarket rounds and method contracts settle on the official round and time of stoppage as posted by the promotion. If the bout is cancelled, scratched at the weigh-in, postponed beyond this card, or overturned to a no-contest, both platforms void and refund the market under their own house rules rather than paying either side.
Key Factors
- Quarantillo's first lightweight weigh-in after knee surgery and a 19-month layoff
- Ring rust on both sides: Quarantillo last fought December 14, 2024, Ferreira September 13, 2025
- Method board prices knockout or TKO at 47c versus 29c for the fight going the distance
- Ferreira's 74-inch reach and 7 career submission wins against Quarantillo's 7.44 strikes per minute
- Kalshi and Polymarket within 2c on both fighters, so no cross-platform moneyline edge
- Both fighters enter on two-fight losing streaks with four of those five recent losses by stoppage
What are the current Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo odds?
As of August 8, 2026, Diego Ferreira is the 62.5c favorite (62c on Kalshi, 63c on Polymarket) and Billy Quarantillo trades at 39c (40c on Kalshi, 38c on Polymarket). That puts Ferreira at roughly 63% implied probability.
Who is favored in Ferreira vs Quarantillo?
Diego Ferreira. At 62.5c he is priced near a 63% chance of winning, equivalent to about -175 at a sportsbook. Quarantillo at 39c implies roughly 39%.
Where can I trade the Ferreira vs Quarantillo market?
The moneyline trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, which have combined for about $54.9K in volume on this bout. The rounds ladder and method-of-victory contracts are Polymarket only.
Will Ferreira vs Quarantillo go the distance?
The market says probably not. On August 8, 2026, the fight going the distance trades at 29c, past 1.5 rounds sits at 55c, and past 2.5 rounds at 44c. A knockout or TKO by either fighter is the single most likely method at 47c.
When does the Ferreira vs Quarantillo market resolve?
It resolves Saturday, August 8, 2026, once the lightweight co-feature is decided at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld inside the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET.
What should I watch before the fight?
The Friday weigh-in. Quarantillo is making his first lightweight appearance after knee surgery and a 19-month layoff, and how he looks on the scale is the largest input the 39c price has not yet absorbed.