Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Prediction Market Odds, August 29, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Hasan | — | O 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
Rojas | — | U 0.5 — | 0% | — |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bilal Hasan | — | O 0.5 — | 100% | 100% Polymarket |
Nilson Rojas | — | U 0.5 — | 0% | — |
Bilal Hasan stopped Nilson Rojas at 2:28 of the second round on the Shanghai prelims, and the Polymarket board settled him at 100c with Rojas at 0c. The market never doubted it: Hasan traded in an 86c to 88c band across every pre-fight capture the board holds, and the result matched the price instead of breaking it. The flyweight moneyline carried roughly $155K in lifetime Polymarket volume, the deepest contract on the fight, and the live board above carries the settled prices on the moneyline, the round totals and the method props.
Bilal Hasan needed one clean sequence in the second round to end a fight the market had already priced as a formality. The stoppage came by KO/TKO at 2:28 of round two at Shanghai Oriental Sports Center, on the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song. Hasan moves to 10-0. Rojas drops to 9-1 and takes the first loss of a professional career that had been perfect through nine fights. The moneyline settled Hasan at 100c and Rojas at 0c on roughly $155K of lifetime Polymarket volume.
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Market Context
The route into this fight explains most of the price. Hasan won his Dana White's Contender Series bout on August 11, 2026, finishing Mridul Saikia at 0:45 of the first round, and he was back in the cage 18 days later against an unbeaten opponent. That Contender Series board is the closest public read on him, and the fast finish there is the form line the Shanghai market appears to have leaned on. Rojas arrived 9-0 but with no comparable body of work against this level of competition, which is how a bout between two fighters with a combined 18-0 record still opened closer to a six-to-one proposition than a coin flip.
The price behaved accordingly. The board's snapshot series opens at 86c for Hasan roughly nine hours before the walkouts and never leaves an 86c to 88c band. It ticked up to 88c in the overnight captures, drifted back to 86c and 87c, and read 86c on the last capture before the opening bell. There is no drift, no late steam, no reversal. That is a market with a settled opinion, and the settled opinion was correct.
Inside the fight, the sequencing tracked the props more than the moneyline. The play-by-play logs a Hasan takedown in the first round and a knockdown in the second that ended the fight a beat later. The finish landed just inside the 2:30 midpoint of round two, which is the mark the round-and-a-half line hangs on. That is why the over on 1.5 rounds settled at 0c rather than 100c on a fight that reached the second round at all.
What the Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Props Settled At
The method market was the interesting side of this board, because the two deepest props on the fight were both wrong.
Fight to go the distance: settled 0c on $18.8K of lifetime volume, the single deepest prop on the card entry.
Won by submission: settled 0c on $18.5K. Between them, those two contracts held more than $37K against a KO/TKO outcome that traded on a fraction of that money.
Won by KO or TKO: settled 100c on $804 of lifetime volume.
Hasan by KO or TKO: settled 100c on roughly $1.0K. Rojas by KO or TKO: settled 0c on $478.
Round totals: the over on 0.5 rounds settled 100c on $2.3K, the over on 1.5 rounds settled 0c on $5.8K, and the 2.5-round line never traded at all and holds $0.
The read there is a distribution problem rather than a favorite problem. The moneyline had Hasan right at 86c to 88c, but the money on how he would win sat on the two outcomes that did not happen. Fights that end inside two and a half minutes of round two are the exact case the distance and submission books are worst at pricing.
When the Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Market Resolves
This market has already resolved. It settled on August 29, 2026 on the official UFC result, with Hasan declared the winner by KO/TKO at 2:28 of round two. Winner contracts pay $1 per share and the losing side pays $0, and the round totals and method props settle off the same official time and method of victory. All of the contracts on this board that carried live prices are now marked at 100c or 0c on Polymarket.
Key Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Catalysts
The 18-day turnaround: Hasan fought on the Contender Series on August 11, 2026 and again on August 29, 2026, and the short camp did not cost him anything the market could see.
The unbeaten-versus-unbeaten framing: a combined 18-0 record going in did not produce a close price, which is a recurring pattern on prospect fights where only one side has been tested.
The flat pre-fight line: an 86c to 88c band across every capture the board holds is the signal that there was no live information trickling in before the walkouts.
The 2:30 round-two midpoint: the finish landed just inside it, which flipped the 1.5-round over to 0c despite the fight reaching the second round.
The mispriced method book: $18.8K on the distance and $18.5K on the submission both settled at 0c while the KO/TKO contract that settled at 100c traded on under $1K.
Related Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Markets
Hasan's next relevant board is the division itself. The UFC flyweight title market prices who holds the belt at the end of 2026, and a 10-0 prospect two fights into a UFC run is a name that starts appearing on those boards well before he is a contender. The pound-for-pound year-end market is the other standing UFC futures board worth tracking against the current champion tier. For the fight that put Hasan on the roster, the Contender Series board holds the pricing on his first-round finish of Mridul Saikia. Every live UFC board plus the rest of the day's cross-platform slate sits on the sports markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolved on August 29, 2026 to the fighter who won the bout by official UFC decision, stoppage or disqualification. Bilal Hasan won by KO/TKO at 2:28 of the second round of a three-round flyweight contest at Shanghai Oriental Sports Center, so the Hasan contract settled at 100c and the Nilson Rojas contract settled at 0c, paying $1 per share and $0 per share respectively. The round-total contracts settled off the official finish time, with the over on 0.5 rounds resolving yes and the over on 1.5 rounds resolving no because the stoppage came inside the 2:30 midpoint of round two. The method props settled off the official method of victory, so the KO/TKO contracts resolved yes and the submission and go-the-distance contracts resolved no. A no-contest, an overturned result or a cancellation would have voided the bout contracts under platform rules.
Key Factors
- Hasan fought twice in 18 days, winning on the Contender Series August 11 and in Shanghai August 29
- Both fighters entered unbeaten at a combined 18-0, yet the line opened at 86c and never moved
- Pre-fight moneyline held an 86c to 88c band across every snapshot the board carries
- The 2:28 finish in round two landed inside the 2:30 midpoint, settling the 1.5-round over at 0c
- The two deepest props, distance at $18.8K and submission at $18.5K, both settled at 0c
- Rojas takes the first loss of his career and falls to 9-1; Hasan moves to 10-0
What were the final Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas odds?
The moneyline settled on August 29, 2026 with Bilal Hasan at 100c and Nilson Rojas at 0c on Polymarket. Hasan had traded between 86c and 88c across every pre-fight capture the board holds, an implied win probability of roughly 86% to 88%.
Who won Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas?
Bilal Hasan won by KO/TKO at 2:28 of the second round of the three-round flyweight bout at Shanghai Oriental Sports Center on August 29, 2026. Hasan moved to 10-0 and Rojas fell to 9-1.
Where did the Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas market trade?
The board shown here carries Polymarket pricing on the moneyline, the round totals and the method props. The moneyline held roughly $155K in lifetime volume, the deepest single contract on the fight.
How did the Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas props settle?
KO/TKO settled at 100c and Hasan by KO/TKO settled at 100c. Fight to go the distance settled at 0c on $18.8K of lifetime volume and won by submission settled at 0c on $18.5K, making the two deepest props on the fight the two that resolved no.
Why did the over on 1.5 rounds settle at 0c?
The stoppage came at 2:28 of round two, just inside the 2:30 midpoint that the round-and-a-half line settles against, so the over resolved no even though the fight reached the second round. The over on 0.5 rounds settled at 100c.
What should I watch for Bilal Hasan next?
Hasan is 10-0 and two fights into a UFC run inside a month, so his next booking and any move onto the flyweight title board are the things to track. The UFC flyweight championship market prices who holds the belt at the end of 2026.