Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia Prediction Market Odds, August 11, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Hasan | — | O 1.5 17% | 94% | 94% Polymarket |
▶Saikia | — | U 1.5 83% | 7% | 7% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Bilal Hasan | — | O 1.5 | 94% Polymarket | |
▶Mridul Saikia | — | U 1.5 | 7% Polymarket |
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Bilal Hasan is the 91c favorite over Mridul Saikia at 9c on August 11, 2026, the widest moneyline on the five-fight Dana White's Contender Series Season 10 opener. Hasan is 8-0 with seven stoppages; Saikia is 9-1 and has finished all nine of his wins, five by submission. The bout trades on Polymarket only, on roughly $4.2K of cumulative volume, and the line has not moved off 91c. Current prices are on the live board above.
Bilal Hasan opens Dana White's Contender Series Season 10 as the most heavily backed fighter on the card. The 25-year-old Indonesian flyweight is 8-0 as a professional with seven wins by stoppage, and the board prices him at 91c against India's Mridul Saikia at 9c on August 11, 2026. No other bout on the five-fight Week 1 slate is priced anywhere near that wide, and the line has not moved since the market opened.
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia Market Context
This bout trades on Polymarket only. Contender Series cards are not listed on Kalshi, so the single-book status is the design of the market, not a gap in coverage. That removes the cross-platform comparison that anchors most fight pages here and leaves one order book as the only read. The two sides price to 100c combined, and cumulative volume on the board sits near $4.2K, which is thin even by Contender Series standards.
The 91c number is the widest moneyline on the Week 1 card. Anthony Wint at 87c against Matt Adams is the next most lopsided, Jon Kunneman sits at 69c over Joe Kropschot, and the other two bouts are close to coin flips, with Ananias Mulumba at 56c over Tom Pagliarulo and Fabrizio Escarrega at 56c over Abe Alsaghir. Hasan at 91c implies a 91% chance of a win, and Saikia at 9c implies 9%.
The line has held. Across the full snapshot series the favorite has traded in a 91c to 92c band with no directional drift, and the prior-day read was the same 91c. A flat line on a low-volume board is weak evidence on its own, but it does mean no late information has repriced this fight.
Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia Styles and Records
Hasan fights out of Indonesia under the nickname The IndoNinja. He is 8-0 with one no contest, stands 5 ft 7 in with a 70 in reach, and fights from a switch stance. Six of his eight wins came by TKO and one by submission, and ESPN's record file credits four of those wins as title-fight victories on the regional circuit. He turned 25 in July 2026, which makes him one of the younger fighters on the card.
Saikia is the 29-year-old Indian flyweight known as Crusher. He carries a 9-1 record, also stands 5 ft 7 in, and gives up 1.5 in of reach at 68.5 in from an orthodox stance. Every one of his nine wins is a finish, five by submission and four by TKO, and his single defeat came by TKO. Between them the two men have finished 16 of their 17 career wins, which is the most durable fact on this page.
That is what makes the 91c price the interesting part. Saikia has more professional wins than Hasan and a 100% finish rate, so the gap the market is pricing is not a résumé gap. It is the undefeated record, the four-year age edge, the reach, and Saikia's one stoppage loss doing the work. The contest is scheduled for three rounds at flyweight, 125 lbs.
How the Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia Market Resolves
The moneyline settles on the official result of the bout at Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 1, scheduled for Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with a first bell at 7:00 pm ET. It pays on who wins the fight and nothing else. A UFC contract is awarded after Contender Series bouts at Dana White's discretion, and that decision is separate from this market, so a fighter can win here and still not be signed.
Key Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia Factors
Finish rate on both sides: 16 of the 17 combined career wins came by stoppage, so the three-round distance is unlikely to be the deciding variable.
Hasan's undefeated record: 8-0 with one no contest and six TKO wins is the single input the 91c price leans on hardest.
Saikia's submission game: five of his nine wins came by submission, the clearest route for a 9c underdog to invalidate the line.
Single-book pricing: Kalshi does not list Contender Series, so there is no second venue to check the 91c read against.
Contract stakes: Contender Series fighters are competing for a UFC deal awarded at Dana White's discretion, which historically pushes both corners toward finishing rather than managing a decision.
Volume depth: near $4.2K of cumulative board volume means a single sized order can move this line more than a comparable numbered-event fight.
Related UFC and Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia Markets
Hasan and Saikia are fighting for entry into the same 125 lb division tracked on the UFC flyweight title market, which is where a Contender Series graduate would eventually have to climb. For the top of the sport, the next pound-for-pound No. 1 market and the UFC lightweight championship board carry far deeper books than any prospect card. Every live fight board sits under the sports prediction markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter who wins the flyweight bout between Bilal Hasan and Mridul Saikia at Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 1 on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The scheduled three-round contest settles on the official result announced in the cage, with each winning share paying $1 and the losing side paying $0. MMA moneylines are two-way and there is no draw contract, so a majority or split draw, a no contest, or a bout waved off before an official result generally voids the market and refunds under platform rules. A postponement to a later date or a fighter withdrawal at weigh-ins also voids under the same rules. The UFC contract that Dana White may award after the fight is a separate decision and does not affect settlement.
Key Factors
- Combined finish rate: 16 of 17 career wins by stoppage across both fighters
- Hasan undefeated at 8-0 with one no contest and six TKO wins
- Saikia submission threat: five of nine wins by submission as the 9c underdog
- Polymarket-only pricing, no Kalshi listing for Contender Series cards
- Contract stakes: a UFC deal awarded at Dana White discretion after the bout
- Thin book near $4.2K cumulative volume, so single orders move the line
What are the current Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia odds?
As of August 11, 2026, Bilal Hasan is priced at 91c and Mridul Saikia at 9c on the moneyline, an implied 91% chance for Hasan. The line has held in a 91c to 92c band with no directional move since the market opened.
Who is favored in Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia?
Bilal Hasan, at 91c on August 11, 2026. That is the widest moneyline on the five-fight Contender Series Week 1 card, ahead of Anthony Wint at 87c and Jon Kunneman at 69c.
Where does the Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia market trade?
Polymarket only. Kalshi does not list Dana White Contender Series cards, so there is a single order book on this bout and no cross-platform price to compare against.
When does the Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia market resolve?
The bout is scheduled for Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, with a first bell at 7:00 pm ET. The market settles once the official result of the three-round flyweight contest is announced.
What are the records of Bilal Hasan and Mridul Saikia?
Hasan is 8-0 with one no contest, with six TKO wins and one submission. Saikia is 9-1 with five submission wins and four TKOs, and his only loss came by TKO.
What should I watch before Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia resolves?
Watch for weigh-in results on August 10, 2026 and any late replacement, since a withdrawal voids the market. Also watch the book itself: at roughly $4.2K of volume, a single sized order can move the 91c line more than news would.