| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Liberty | +3.5 47%47% | O 191.5 50% | 39%39% | 39% Kalshi |
â–¶Fever | -3.5 53%53% | U 191.5 50% | 61%62% | 62% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶New York Liberty | +3.5 | O 191.5 | 39% Kalshi | |
â–¶Indiana Fever | -3.5 | U 191.5 | 62% Polymarket |
Indiana is the 62.5c home favorite (63c Kalshi, 62c Polymarket) over New York at 39c for the August 11, 2026 meeting at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and the price reads oddly against the weekend. The Liberty (20-13) buried Las Vegas 111-71 on August 9 as a 79c favorite, then got repriced into a 39c road underdog two days later. The Fever (20-12) are first in the Eastern Conference at 11-6 at home and have taken two of three in the season series, including a 108-88 win in the only prior meeting at Gainbridge. The live board above carries the current Kalshi and Polymarket prices on the moneyline, the spread ladder, and the total.
Indiana at 62.5c is the largest home number the Fever have carried against New York this season, and it is being asked to absorb the most emphatic Liberty performance of the year. New York beat Las Vegas 111-71 at home on August 9, a 40-point win priced at 79c pre-game, and the market has still moved them to a 39c road underdog for August 11, 2026. The read is venue and standings, not form: the Indiana Fever are 20-12 and first in the Eastern Conference, the New York Liberty are 20-13 and second, and the separation between them on this board comes almost entirely from Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
The moneyline is a clean two-book market. Kalshi has Indiana at 63c and New York at 39c, Polymarket has Indiana at 62c and New York at 39c, and the cross-platform gap on the favorite is 1c. That is inside normal pricing noise on a WNBA regular-season game, so there is no meaningful venue-selection edge on the moneyline tonight. The gap that matters is in where the money sits: the Indiana moneyline row carries roughly $22.5K in combined volume against roughly $12.1K on the New York side, out of about $39.3K across the whole board.
Records back the home number more than the recent scorelines do. Indiana is 11-6 at home and 9-6 on the road; New York is 11-5 at home but only 9-8 away from Brooklyn. The season series sits 2-1 Indiana, and the split is geographic: the Fever won 109-91 and lost 83-75 in the two games at Barclays Center, then won 108-88 at Gainbridge on July 19. A 20-point home win in the only prior meeting at this venue is the single cleanest justification for a 62.5c line.
Form cuts the other way. New York has won four in a row, closing with the 111-71 result against Las Vegas on August 9. Indiana split its last two, losing 86-84 at home to Las Vegas on August 6 before winning 90-86 at Chicago on August 8. A market that weighted the last five games rather than the venue would have this closer to a coin flip, and the fact that it does not is the thing to price an opinion against.
The offensive profiles favor Indiana in efficiency and New York in size. The Fever average 95.9 points on 48.5% shooting and 38.7% from three, with 20.8 assists per game. The Liberty average 90.7 points on 46.5% shooting and 35.5% from three, with 20.9 assists and a 35.0 rebound average against Indiana's 33.6. Kelsey Mitchell leads Indiana at 24.2 points per game, Caitlin Clark runs the offense at 8.1 assists and 21.6 points per game, and Aliyah Boston anchors the glass at 8.5 rebounds. New York counters with Breanna Stewart at 21.3 points and 8.4 rebounds and Jonquel Jones at 9.1 rebounds. Neither team page on ESPN lists an injury designation ahead of tip.
Line movement has been quiet. Indiana has printed 63c at every Kalshi snapshot in the current series, and the New York side on Polymarket has eased from 40c to 39c. The interesting move already happened across days, not across hours: 79c favorite on August 9, 39c underdog on August 11, 2026, with no roster news in between.
The spread ladder is priced tighter than the moneyline suggests. Indiana -3.5 trades at 53.5c (54c Kalshi, 53c Polymarket) and Indiana -4.5 sits at 48c on Polymarket, which brackets a fair number right around four points. Indiana -1.5 is 59c and Indiana -6.5 is 43c, so the ladder is pricing a modest home edge rather than a mismatch. The larger Indiana rungs fall off quickly: -9.5 at 32c, -12.5 at 23c, -15.5 at 19c. On the other side, New York -1.5 is 39c and New York -3.5 is 34c, which is consistent with the moneyline rather than a hedge against it.
The total is the higher-conviction market on this board. Over 191.5 points is 49c on Kalshi and the Polymarket 192.5 line is also 49c, so both books have the number essentially at a true coin flip near 192. That is a fast projected pace, and it is supported by the two offenses combining for 186.6 points per game on the season and by the 108-88 and 109-91 scorelines already in this series. The ladder gives the shape: Over 179.5 at 80c, Over 185.5 at 66c, Over 188.5 at 56c, Over 194.5 at 45c, Over 200.5 at 34c, Over 203.5 at 24c.
Polymarket also lists player props for this game, including Caitlin Clark points at 21.5 and assists at 8.5, Kelsey Mitchell points at 24.5 and 25.5, Breanna Stewart points at 22.5, Sabrina Ionescu points at 17.5, Aliyah Boston rebounds at 8.5, and Jonquel Jones rebounds at 9.5. Those lines are posted without a quoted two-sided price at the time of writing, so treat them as line references rather than tradeable reads until the board shows prices.
The game tips at 7:30 PM ET on August 11, 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The moneyline resolves to the winner of the game, the spread settles against the final margin, and the total settles against the combined final score, all including overtime. Both platforms settle after the league declares the result final, typically within a few hours of the final buzzer.
Venue split: Indiana is 11-6 at home and won the only prior meeting at Gainbridge 108-88, which is the main support for a 62.5c price.
New York road profile: the Liberty are 9-8 away from Brooklyn despite a 20-13 overall record, and the road number is what the market is charging them for.
Form versus price: New York has won four straight including a 111-71 win over Las Vegas on August 9 and is still a 39c underdog.
Pace and the total: both books have the total at a coin flip near 192, with the two teams combining for 186.6 points per game on the season.
Backcourt production: Kelsey Mitchell at 24.2 points per game and Caitlin Clark at 8.1 assists per game against a Liberty side that held three of its last four opponents under 87 points, including Las Vegas at 71.
Cross-platform read: the 1c favorite gap between Kalshi and Polymarket is inside normal noise, so the venue choice matters far less here than the side.
The WNBA prediction markets hub carries every league board with live Kalshi and Polymarket pricing. For the game that set up this price, see the Aces at Liberty board from August 9, where New York was the 79c favorite and won 111-71. Indiana's two most recent boards are the Fever at Sky game on August 8, a 90-86 Indiana win, and the Aces at Fever game on August 6, an 86-84 Indiana loss at home. Broader league coverage sits on the sports prediction markets hub.
Resolves to the team that wins the New York Liberty at Indiana Fever game on August 11, 2026, scheduled for 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The moneyline contract for the winning team pays $1 per share and the losing team resolves to $0, with overtime counting toward the official result. Spread contracts settle against the final margin of victory and total contracts settle against the combined final score, both including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket settle after the WNBA declares the game final, normally within a few hours of the final buzzer. If the game is postponed, it settles when it is played on the rescheduled date; if it is canceled outright and not made up, contracts void per each platform's published rules.
As of August 11, 2026, Indiana is the 62.5c favorite (63c on Kalshi, 62c on Polymarket) and New York is 39c on both platforms. That implies roughly a 62% chance for the Fever and 39% for the Liberty before the standard platform margin.
Indiana is favored at home. The Fever are 20-12 and 11-6 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and they won the only prior meeting at this venue 108-88 on July 19, 2026. The Liberty are 20-13 overall but 9-8 on the road.
Indiana -3.5 trades at 53.5c and Indiana -4.5 sits at 48c on Polymarket, bracketing a fair number near four points. The total is priced at a coin flip near 192, with Over 191.5 at 49c on Kalshi and the Polymarket 192.5 line also at 49c.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list this game. Kalshi carries the moneyline, a nine-rung spread ladder, and nine total lines; Polymarket carries the moneyline, a -4.5 spread, a 192.5 total, and player props on Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Breanna Stewart, and others.
The game tips at 7:30 PM ET on August 11, 2026 and settles once the WNBA declares the result final, usually within a few hours. Watch the total first: it is the only line on the board sitting at a genuine coin flip on both platforms.