Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams Prediction Market Odds, August 11, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Wint | — | O 1.5 26% | 91% | 91% Polymarket |
▶Adams | — | U 1.5 74% | 10% | 10% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Anthony Wint | — | O 1.5 | 91% Polymarket | |
▶Matt Adams | — | U 1.5 | 10% Polymarket |
No player props available for this game.
No spread lines available.
Anthony Wint is the 87c favorite over Matt Adams on the heavyweight bout that opens Dana White's Contender Series Season 10 on August 11, 2026, an implied read near 87% built on a 6-0 record with five finishes against a 6-2 opponent who has been stopped in both of his career losses. The bout is listed on Polymarket only, since Kalshi does not carry Contender Series cards, so the 87c print is a single-venue price sitting on roughly $1.2K of cumulative volume. Wint has been 87c across every snapshot in the board's price history, including the prior-day read, so this line has not moved into fight night.
Dana White's Contender Series opens Season 10 on August 11, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, and the heavyweight bout between Anthony Wint (6-0) and Matt Adams (6-2) is priced as a clear favorite spot. Wint trades at 87c, Adams at 14c. The stake here is not a ranking or a title shot: Contender Series is the showcase where Dana White awards UFC contracts at his own discretion after the card, so the fight has a career consequence that a regional prospect bout does not carry. Season 10 runs ten events from August 11 through October 13, 2026, and this is the first of them, airing on Paramount+.
Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams Market Context
Wint, a 31-year-old heavyweight out of Homestead, Florida who fights under the nickname "Bow Down," is 6-0 with five finishes in six wins. His last three results are the reason the board prices him this heavily: a knockout of J. Tatum in 37 seconds at Fury Fighting Championship 117 in March 2026, a knockout of M. Banks in 21 seconds in November 2025, and a third-round knockout of E. Verdier in June 2025. ESPN credits him with four knockout or technical knockout wins and one submission win, which means only one of his six victories has gone to the scorecards. Tapology ranks him the No. 9 professional heavyweight in the US Southeast.
Adams, 28, fights out of New Lexington, Ohio with RAW MMA under the nickname "Bad" and is listed at 5 foot 11 and 235 pounds. He is 6-2 and shares Wint's finishing profile on the win side, with five knockout or technical knockout wins, most recently a first-round stoppage of Q. Campbell at Ohio Combat League 43 in March 2026. The loss side is what the market is discounting. Both of his professional defeats came by stoppage, including a first-round rear-naked choke against A. Bilalov at LFA 224 in January 2026, one fight before the Campbell win. He also holds a first-round knockout of B. Wunder at LFA 219 in October 2025, so the sample is short but violent in both directions.
The pricing read is straightforward. The moneyline is the only healthy market on this board, with a tight two-sided book and real volume behind it. Wint at 87c and Adams at 14c sum to 101c, which is one cent of book margin, and the moneyline has carried roughly $1.2K in cumulative volume with about $266 traded in the last 24 hours. That is thin, and thin books move on small tickets, so the durable input is the records rather than the tick. There is also no cross-platform check available here. Kalshi does not list Dana White's Contender Series, so the single-book status is a structural feature of the event and not a data gap on our side. Traders comparing venues on a numbered UFC card, such as the UFC 329 heavyweight prelim board, will find two-sided coverage there that does not exist for a Contender Series week.
On line movement, there is nothing to report and that is itself the signal. Wint printed 87c on the prior-day read and 87c on every snapshot since, so the market has held its opening number rather than drifting toward either fighter as the card approached. An 87c favorite that never wobbles in a book this thin usually means no new information reached it, not that it absorbed information and stayed put.
When the Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams Market Resolves
The market resolves on the official result of the heavyweight bout on August 11, 2026 at the UFC Apex. A knockout, technical knockout, submission, disqualification, or judges' decision all settle the moneyline the same way, to whichever fighter has his hand raised. There is no partial settlement and no scheduled-date fallback: if the bout is moved, scratched, or ends without a declared winner, the platform's published event rules govern rather than the calendar.
Key Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams Catalysts
Finishing rate gap: Wint has ended five of six wins inside the distance, twice in under 40 seconds, which is the core of the 87c price.
Adams' stoppage losses: both of his two professional defeats came by finish, including a first-round rear-naked choke in January 2026, so the downside scenario has precedent.
Single-book pricing: Polymarket lists this bout and Kalshi does not, so there is no second venue to cross-check the 87c number against.
Liquidity: roughly $1.2K cumulative and about $266 in the last 24 hours means the line is responsive to small size, not deep institutional flow.
Contract stakes: UFC deals on this series are handed out at Dana White's discretion after the card, which changes what a fighter is optimizing for relative to a normal regional bout.
Related Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams and UFC Markets
The rest of the promotion's board is deeper than a Contender Series week. The UFC light heavyweight title market and the next pound-for-pound No. 1 market both carry season-long positioning that a single prospect fight does not, and the lightweight championship board is the most actively traded division market of the group. For the full slate of live and upcoming fight boards across every promotion we cover, start at the sports markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to the fighter declared the official winner of the Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams heavyweight bout at Dana White's Contender Series on August 11, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Settlement follows the official in-cage result recorded by the promotion, covering a knockout, technical knockout, submission, disqualification, or judges' decision. Each winning share pays $1 and the losing side settles at $0. A draw, a no contest, a late opponent change, or a cancellation or postponement of the bout is handled under the listing platform's published rules for the event rather than by the scheduled date alone. The bout is listed on Polymarket only, because Kalshi does not carry Contender Series cards, so there is no second venue settlement to reconcile.
Key Factors
- Wint is 6-0 with five finishes in six wins, including knockouts in 37 seconds and 21 seconds across his last three fights
- Adams is 6-2 and has been stopped in both career losses, most recently a first-round rear-naked choke at LFA 224 in January 2026
- Adams enters on a first-round knockout of Q. Campbell at Ohio Combat League 43 in March 2026, his fifth stoppage win
- Single-book pricing: Polymarket lists the bout and Kalshi does not carry Contender Series, so there is no cross-platform comparison
- Thin liquidity, roughly $1.2K cumulative and about $266 in the last 24 hours, means the 87c line moves on small tickets
- Contract stakes: Dana White awards UFC deals on this series at his discretion after the card, not by automatic qualification
What are the current Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams odds?
As of August 11, 2026, Anthony Wint is 87c and Matt Adams is 14c on the moneyline, an implied win probability near 87% for Wint. Those prices come from Polymarket, the only venue listing this bout.
Where does the Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams market trade?
Polymarket only. Kalshi does not list Dana White's Contender Series cards, so there is no cross-platform price on this fight, unlike numbered UFC events where both venues post markets.
Who is favored in Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams?
Wint, at 87c on August 11, 2026. He is 6-0 with five finishes in six wins, including a 37-second knockout in March 2026, against a 6-2 opponent who has been stopped in both of his losses.
When does the Anthony Wint vs Matt Adams market resolve?
On the official result of the bout at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on August 11, 2026. The moneyline settles to whichever heavyweight has his hand raised, by finish or by decision.
What should traders watch before the Wint vs Adams bout?
Whether the 87c line holds. It has not moved off 87c since the board opened, so any late drift on roughly $1.2K of cumulative volume would signal fresh information such as a weight-cut issue or an opponent change on the Season 10 opener.