| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago | +10.5 — | O 180.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Liberty | -10.5 — | U 180.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago | +10.5 — | O 180.5 — | 0%0% | — |
Liberty | -10.5 — | U 180.5 — | 100%100% | 100% Kalshi |
New York is the 80c favorite over Chicago on both Kalshi and Polymarket, a zero-cent cross-platform spread on a two-book WNBA moneyline, and that price is built on season records (Liberty 23-16, Sky 15-24) rather than on this matchup. The three prior meetings were decided by a combined nine points, with Chicago taking the most recent one 93-86 on August 18. Tip is 1:00 PM ET at Barclays Center, and the live board above carries the current rungs.
New York is the 80c favorite over Chicago on both books (80c Kalshi, 80c Polymarket) for a 1:00 PM ET tip at Barclays Center, and the two exchanges have not disagreed by a single cent on the moneyline all session. The records justify the gap, Liberty 23-16 against Sky 15-24, but the head-to-head does not: New York leads the season series 2-1 and the three games have been decided by a combined nine points. The board carries $289.9K in lifetime volume, $108.7K of it on the New York side.
The two teams are playing for opposite things. New York sits fourth in the East at 23-16, 2.5 games back of Indiana (26-14) with Atlanta (25-14) and Washington (24-16) stacked in between, so every result now is seeding. The Liberty playoff market prices at 100c and the Sky playoff market prices at 0c, which is the cleanest statement of the stakes available. Chicago at 15-24 and 10.5 games back is out of the race and playing spoiler in a building where the home team is 13-6.
Recent form cuts against the price more than the standings do. New York lost at home 79-60 to Golden State on Thursday, the low point of a five-game stretch that also produced wins over Los Angeles (85-81), Connecticut (82-75) and Indiana (109-102). Chicago has been idle since Tuesday, an 87-81 loss at Connecticut that ended a three-game winning streak. The Sky are 5-14 on the road, and that split is what the 21c price is built on.
The series argues this is closer than 80c. New York won 96-95 in Chicago on June 17, won 95-94 at home on July 22, then lost 93-86 in Chicago on August 18. Two one-point wins and a seven-point loss describes a coin flip with a small edge, not a four-to-one favorite. ESPN's matchup model lands almost exactly where the board does, giving New York 78.7% against the 79.2% the two-sided 80/21 quote implies once the vig is removed, so the disagreement is with the season sample, not between the models.
Availability is the live variable. New York is without Satou Sabally (concussion, listed to return September 18). Chicago is missing more bodies: Skylar Diggins (knee), DiJonai Carrington (foot) and Rickea Jackson (knee) are all out, and Natasha Cloud carries a day-to-day knee tag with a return date of today. Cloud leads the Sky at 5.0 assists per game and is the one late scratch that reprices a 21c underdog.
Line movement has been flat by any reasonable reading. The board holds 109 price captures on the New York leg and 139 on Chicago going back to 8:10 PM ET Friday. New York opened the session at 79c on both exchanges, traded down to 78c through the morning, and printed 80c on the latest capture. Chicago moved in mirror, 22c out to 23c and back to 21c. A 2c band across roughly 14 hours of quotes means neither the Golden State loss nor Cloud's knee has repriced this game.
The alternate-line ladder is where the two books look different, and the reason is that they publish different rungs rather than different opinions. Kalshi's thickest spread rung is New York -7.5 at 55c on $21.4K, with -4.5 at 66c and -10.5 at 43c bracketing it. Polymarket runs a single New York -8.5 at 53c on $34.5K, the same number posted at DraftKings. Read together, the ladder puts the real line between 7.5 and 8.5 points, with the favorite covering at close to a coin flip on both boards.
The total tells the same story. Kalshi has Over 177.5 at 55c and Over 180.5 at 48c, straddling Polymarket's single 179.5 line at 52c, which again matches the sportsbook number. Reading the two boards side by side produces a tighter total than either one alone.
Props are Kalshi-only with one exception. Kamilla Cardoso, who leads Chicago at 14.9 points and 8.9 rebounds per game on 54.8% shooting, carries the thickest prop on the board at 86c for 10+ points, with 15+ points at 59c and 8+ rebounds at 71c. Breanna Stewart (20.6 points per game, 46.7 FG%, 84.4 FT%) is 80c for 15+ points, and her points line sits at 53c over 19.5. The one genuinely two-book prop is Jonquel Jones rebounds over 9.5, quoted 46c on Kalshi and 38c on Polymarket. Jones averages 9.1 rebounds, so that 8c difference sits directly on top of her season number, and the two exchanges are reading the same coin flip differently.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at Barclays Center on Saturday, August 29, 2026, tipping at 1:00 PM ET on CBS and Paramount+. Spread and total contracts settle against the official final score including overtime. Both Kalshi and Polymarket settle after the league posts the final, generally within a few hours of the buzzer. A postponement moves settlement to the rescheduled date rather than voiding the contract, and a canceled game voids under each platform's house rules.
The last Sky vs Liberty meeting on August 18 is the useful comparison, a 93-86 Chicago win in Chicago that the season series now turns on. New York's loss to Golden State and Chicago's loss at Connecticut are the two most recent form inputs on either side. Longer dated, the 2026 WNBA champion market has New York at 9c behind Minnesota at 46c, and the 2026 WNBA MVP market is where Stewart's scoring case gets priced. Full boards for both clubs live on the New York Liberty hub and the Chicago Sky hub, with the rest of the slate on the WNBA hub.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins Chicago Sky at New York Liberty, played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Saturday, August 29, 2026, with a 1:00 PM ET tip on CBS and Paramount+. Spread contracts settle against the official final margin and total contracts against the official combined final score, both including overtime. Player props settle on the league's official box score. Kalshi and Polymarket both settle once the WNBA posts the final, typically within a few hours of the buzzer. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the rescheduled date rather than voiding; if it is canceled outright, contracts void under each platform's house rules.
As of August 29, 2026, New York is the 80c moneyline favorite and Chicago is 21c, with both Kalshi and Polymarket quoting identical prices. That two-sided quote implies about 79.2% for the Liberty once the vig is removed.
New York is favored at roughly a four-to-one price. The spread market puts the number between 7.5 and 8.5 points, with Kalshi's New York -7.5 at 55c and Polymarket's New York -8.5 at 53c.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket carry the moneyline, and the board has traded $289.9K in lifetime volume. Kalshi additionally lists the spread ladder, the total ladder and the player props; Polymarket lists single spread and total rungs at -8.5 and 179.5.
It resolves on the final score of the 1:00 PM ET game at Barclays Center on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Both platforms settle after the WNBA posts the official final, generally within a few hours of the buzzer.
Natasha Cloud's day-to-day knee tag is the one lineup input that can move a 21c underdog, and New York's response to a 60-point output on Thursday is the other. The board has held a 78c to 80c band across 109 price captures since Friday evening.