Mercury vs Fire Prediction Market Odds, September 17, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Mercury | -1.5 54%55% | O 172.5 48%46% | 57%57% | 57% Kalshi |
â–¶Fire | +1.5 46%45% | U 172.5 52%54% | 44%43% | 44% Kalshi |
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The Phoenix Mercury are road favorites in Portland despite the worse record: as of the night of September 16, the moneyline had Phoenix at 57% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with the Portland Fire at 44% on Kalshi and 43% on Polymarket. Phoenix (14-26) and Portland (16-24) split their first two meetings, and this third game tips at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, September 17 at Moda Center. The board has traded roughly $179,000 in lifetime volume.
The market is pricing Phoenix over Portland by about 14 points of implied probability even though the Portland Fire (16-24) carry a two-game edge in the standings over the Phoenix Mercury (14-26). Both venues agree almost exactly on the moneyline, so there is no cross-platform price gap to exploit here; the story is the favorite itself.
Mercury vs Fire Market Context
Per ESPN's standings, Portland sits fifth in the Western Conference and Phoenix seventh, 16 and 17 games behind first-place Minnesota. The home/road splits line up evenly for this game: Portland is 8-12 at home and Phoenix is 8-12 on the road. Phoenix enters on a one-game winning streak and Portland on a one-game skid.
The season series is tied 1-1. Phoenix won 78-72 in Portland in June, and Portland answered with an 88-85 win in Phoenix on August 16. This is the third and final scheduled regular-season meeting, so the series winner is decided Thursday.
Alyssa Thomas leads Phoenix at 14.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game, and the Mercury offense runs through her playmaking. Emily Engstler leads Portland in points (10.0), rebounds (5.6) and assists (2.1) per game, a flatter scoring distribution than Phoenix's.
Availability shapes both rosters. As of September 16, ESPN's injury report listed Kahleah Copper (ankle) and Kelsey Plum (lower leg) as out for Phoenix. For Portland it listed Bridget Carleton (ankle), Teja Oblak (knee), Megan DiLeo (finger), Carla Leite (rest) and Luisa Geiselsoder (personal) as out. Portland's list is longer, which is part of why the road team is favored.
Mercury vs Fire Spread and Total
The spread board agrees with the moneyline. As of September 16, Phoenix -1.5 traded at 54% on Kalshi and 53% on Polymarket, and Phoenix -3.5 at 46% on Kalshi and 45% on Polymarket. The market sees this as a one-possession game with Phoenix a slight favorite to cover a short number.
On the total, Over 172.5 sat at 49% on Kalshi and Polymarket's Over/Under 173.5 at 49%, which puts the market's midpoint at roughly 172 to 173 points. Over 175.5 traded at 44% on both venues.
Mercury vs Fire Line Movement
Our snapshots for this board cover about 8:00 PM to 10:20 PM ET on September 16, so these moves are scoped to that window only. The Phoenix moneyline ticked up from 56% to 57% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Portland on Kalshi moved between 44% and 45% before settling at 44%. The clearer move came on the total: Over 175.5 slid from 48% to 44% on Kalshi and from 47% to 44% on Polymarket, dipping as low as 40% there. Phoenix -1.5 on Kalshi eased from 56% to 54% in the same window. Money in that window leaned toward a lower-scoring game while holding Phoenix as the favorite.
When the Mercury vs Fire Market Resolves
The moneyline settles on the team that wins the game played Thursday, September 17, 2026, overtime included. Spread and total contracts settle on the final score once the game goes final on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Related Markets
For the season-long view, see the Phoenix Mercury team hub and the Portland Fire team hub, plus the win-total boards for Phoenix and Portland. The full league board lives on the WNBA hub, and the title race is on the WNBA Finals champion market.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves Yes for the team that wins the Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire game at Moda Center on Thursday, September 17, 2026 (scheduled 10:00 PM ET), including overtime. Spread contracts settle on the final margin and total contracts on the combined final score. Kalshi and Polymarket settle each contract once the game is official as final on the scheduled date; a postponement or cancellation falls under each venue's own rules for that contract.
Key Factors
- Road favorite with the worse record: Phoenix (14-26) is priced over Portland (16-24), with the Mercury 8-12 on the road and the Fire 8-12 at home
- Series decider: the season series is tied 1-1 (Phoenix won 78-72 in Portland, Portland won 88-85 in Phoenix)
- Availability: ESPN listed Kahleah Copper and Kelsey Plum out for Phoenix and five players out for Portland, including Bridget Carleton, as of September 16
- Alyssa Thomas (14.2 points, 8.4 assists per game) is the engine of the Phoenix offense
- Total drifting lower: Over 175.5 fell from 48% to 44% on Kalshi during the September 16 evening captures
- No cross-platform gap: Kalshi and Polymarket are within one point on the moneyline
What are the Mercury vs Fire odds?
As of the night of September 16, 2026, the Phoenix Mercury were 57% to win on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The Portland Fire were 44% on Kalshi and 43% on Polymarket. See the live board above for current prices.
Who is favored in Mercury vs Fire?
Phoenix is the favorite at about 57% implied probability, even though Portland has the better record (16-24 to 14-26). Portland's longer injury list as of September 16 is part of the gap.
What time does Mercury vs Fire start and where is it played?
The game tips at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, September 17, 2026 at Moda Center in Portland. Listed broadcasts include WNBA League Pass, Merc+, Arizona's Family 3TV and Fox 12 Plus.
What are the spread and total for Mercury vs Fire?
As of September 16, Phoenix -1.5 traded at 54% on Kalshi and 53% on Polymarket. Over 172.5 was 49% on Kalshi and Polymarket's Over/Under 173.5 was 49%, putting the market midpoint around 172 to 173 points.
Where can I trade Mercury vs Fire?
The game trades on Kalshi and Polymarket, with moneyline, spread and total markets. Prediction Genius compares both venues on one board.
When does the Mercury vs Fire market resolve?
The moneyline resolves to the winner of the September 17, 2026 game, overtime included. Spread and total contracts settle on the final score once the game is final.