| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Liberty | +3.5 44%44% | O 172.5 54%53% | 37%37% | 37% Kalshi |
â–¶Lynx | -3.5 56%56% | U 172.5 46%47% | 64%64% | 64% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶New York Liberty | +3.5 | O 172.5 | 37% Kalshi | |
â–¶Minnesota Lynx | -3.5 | U 172.5 | 64% Kalshi |
Minnesota is the 65c moneyline favorite (65c Kalshi, 65c Polymarket) over New York at 37c for the 1:00 PM ET tip at Target Center on July 11, 2026. The Lynx (16-6) carry the better record into the matchup against the Liberty (13-9), and the two books agree to the cent on the moneyline, so there is no cross-platform edge on the winner. The spread sits at Minnesota -5.5 and the total is priced around 174 points. See the live board above for current cross-platform prices.
Minnesota opens as the 65c favorite over New York at 37c, an implied read of roughly 65% for the home side. The line has held all day: the Lynx sat at 65c on Kalshi from open to current, while Polymarket ticked up one cent from 64c to 65c, leaving the two books in exact agreement. That convergence means there is no arbitrage on the moneyline in this Liberty vs Lynx market, so the value questions live in the spread, the total, and the props.
The Lynx enter at 16-6, the stronger record by three games in the loss column over the Liberty at 13-9. Minnesota's profile carries an oddity the 65c price partly obscures: the Lynx are 10-2 on the road but only 6-4 at home, and this game is at Target Center. New York is 6-4 away from Brooklyn, so the venue is less of a lever than the raw records suggest. Olivia Miles leads Minnesota at 18.5 points and 5.7 assists per game, with Natisha Howard pulling 8.0 rebounds a night. New York counters with the highest scorer on the floor in Breanna Stewart at 20.5 points per game, plus Jonquel Jones at 9.1 rebounds, the best board rate in the matchup. The two sides met on July 3, and this is the quick rematch.
The spread board prices Minnesota -2.5 at 59c on Polymarket and Minnesota to win by more than 3.5 at 56c on Kalshi (55c Polymarket), then drops through even money at the key number: Minnesota -5.5 trades at 47c on Polymarket, just under a coin flip. That matches the sportsbook line of MIN -5.5 and tells the story cleanly, the market sees a Lynx win as likely (65c) but a comfortable cover as closer to a toss-up. The New York side of the ladder runs from the Liberty winning by more than 1.5 at 35c down to a 6.5-point upset at 22c. On the total, Over 172.5 sits at 55c on both books, Over 173.5 at 52c on Polymarket, and Over 175.5 at 48c, bracketing a market total near 174 points, in line with the 174.5 book number. The Courtney Williams assists prop (Over 5.5) is the most balanced player market at 51c, while Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points prices at 32c and Sabrina Ionescu Over 15.5 points at 28c, both reflecting the market's read that New York's stars need volume to keep the Liberty within the number.
The Liberty vs Lynx market resolves on the final score of the game played July 11, 2026 at Target Center in Minneapolis, tip scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. The moneyline pays the team that wins the game outright. The spread contracts settle on the winning margin (Minnesota -5.5 pays if the Lynx win by 6 or more), and the total settles on combined points scored versus the listed line. Each contract pays $1 per share on the correct side and $0 otherwise, settled on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game goes final.
The catalysts below track what moves this Liberty vs Lynx price between now and tip.
The season-long picture frames this game: track the Lynx season wins market and the Liberty season wins market for how each side's projection is trending, and the WNBA championship market for where both rank in the title race. Their prior meeting trades at Lynx vs Liberty on July 3, and the full slate of daily and futures boards sits on the sports hub.
Resolves on the final score of the New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx game played July 11, 2026 at Target Center in Minneapolis, with tip scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game outright. The spread contracts settle on the winning margin (Minnesota -5.5 pays if the Lynx win by 6 or more points), and the total contracts settle on combined points scored versus the listed line. Each contract pays $1 per share on the winning side and $0 on the other, settled on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is final. If the game is postponed past the scheduled date or voided, contracts resolve per each platform postponement rules.
As of July 11, 2026, Minnesota is the 65c favorite (65c on Kalshi, 65c on Polymarket) and New York is the underdog at 37c on Kalshi, 36c on Polymarket. The two books agree to the cent on the moneyline.
The Minnesota Lynx are favored at 65c, an implied probability of roughly 65%. The Lynx (16-6) hold the better record over the New York Liberty (13-9) and host the game at Target Center.
The spread is Minnesota -5.5, which trades at 47c on Polymarket, just under even money. The total is priced near 174 points, with Over 172.5 at 55c and Over 175.5 at 48c on the board.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list the game. Kalshi carries the moneyline, the full spread ladder, and total brackets, while Polymarket adds the deepest set of player props including Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu points markets.
It resolves once the game goes final on July 11, 2026, tip scheduled for 1:00 PM ET at Target Center. The moneyline pays the outright winner, and the spread and total settle on the final score.