| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Storm | +9.5 53%55% | O 182.5 49%49% | 24%23% | 24% Kalshi |
â–¶Liberty | -9.5 47%45% | U 182.5 51%51% | 77%78% | 78% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Seattle Storm | +9.5 | O 182.5 | 24% Kalshi | |
â–¶New York Liberty | -9.5 | U 182.5 | 78% Polymarket |
New York is the 78c home favorite and the two books agree to the cent, Kalshi 78c and Polymarket 78c, with Seattle at 24c on Kalshi and 23c on Polymarket. That 54c gap is the widest moneyline on a three-game Monday slate where the other two games price inside 4c of a coin flip. The Liberty (17-13) sit fourth in the East and arrive off a 94-92 win at Phoenix; the Storm (6-25) carry an eight-game losing streak and a 2-14 road record. Tipoff is 7pm ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Seattle at New York is the biggest price gap on the WNBA slate for Monday, August 3, 2026. The Liberty (17-13) are the 78c home favorite and the Storm (6-25) trade at a 23.5c consensus, a 54c spread on a board where the other two Monday games price inside 4c of even. Kalshi and Polymarket land on the identical 78c for New York, the two moneyline rows carry about $17.9K of the board's $23K in combined volume, the Kalshi spread ladder runs from New York -1.5 out to -21.5, and the total ladder spans 170.5 to 194.5 points. Tipoff is 7pm ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
New York prices at 78c on Kalshi and 78c on Polymarket, an exact two-book match at roughly 78% implied. Seattle renders at 24c on Kalshi and 23c on Polymarket. That single cent on the underdog is the only cross-platform edge on the board and it is a real one: the Kalshi pair sums to 102c against Polymarket's 101c, so the Storm ticket is cheaper on Polymarket and that is the venue for anyone taking the dog.
The moneyline has held. Kalshi opened the current snapshot series with New York at 78c and closed it at 78c across the two-hour window, while Seattle moved 23c to 24c on Kalshi and 24c to 23c on Polymarket, which is quoting noise rather than a repricing. What movement exists sits on the derivative rungs: the Kalshi New York -9.5 spread eased from 47c to 46c and the Over 179.5 rung firmed from 53c to 55c. As an outside check, DraftKings opened New York at -360 and now lays -375, and it moved its total from 183.5 down to 181.5.
The number that argues New York is underpriced is ESPN's matchup predictor, which puts the Liberty at 83.9% against the market's 78%. The sportsbook sits with the market at -375, or 78.9% implied, so the model is the outlier and not the price.
The records are as far apart as any pairing in the league. New York is 17-13 and fourth in the East, two games behind Atlanta (18-10) in a four-team seeding scrum that also includes Indiana (19-11) and Washington (16-12). Seattle is 6-25, last in the West and 19 games behind Minnesota. The Storm have lost eight straight and are 1-9 in their last 10; their most recent game was a 98-89 loss at Atlanta on Friday, July 31. New York is 5-5 in its last 10 and closed a three-game western trip with a 94-92 win at Phoenix on Saturday, August 1.
The production gap backs the price. New York scores 89.9 points per game on 35.3% from three with a 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio. Seattle scores 82.5 on 32.3% from three at 1.3. Breanna Stewart leads the Liberty at 21.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, Jonquel Jones anchors the glass at 9.0 rebounds, and Sabrina Ionescu is the third scorer teams have to account for. Seattle counters with Natisha Hiedeman at 16.4 points and 4.6 assists and rookie center Dominique Malonga at 16.3 points and 8.7 rebounds. Malonga against Jones is the one individual matchup where the Storm hold a live edge.
Two things cut against the 78c price. New York is without Satou Sabally (concussion) and Leonie Fiebich (foot), both listed with return dates of August 5, so the Liberty play this one two rotation forwards short. And Seattle already beat this team once: the Storm took the only prior meeting 99-88 at home in June and lead the season series 1-0. Rest tilts slightly to Seattle as well, since the Storm have been off since Friday while New York played Saturday night in Phoenix and flew home. The counterweight is that Seattle is 2-14 on the road and 4-11 at home, so the Storm's road profile is worse than a 6-25 record alone suggests, and New York is 8-5 at Barclays Center.
The Kalshi spread ladder crosses 50% between New York -6.5 at 59c and New York -9.5 at 46c, which implies a fair line right around -8.5 and matches DraftKings exactly. The rungs in between are the tradeable part: New York -1.5 at 75c, -3.5 at 69c, -12.5 at 37c, -15.5 at 29c, -18.5 at 22c and -21.5 at 14c. Polymarket quotes New York -9.5 at 47c against Kalshi's 46c, the second and last cross-platform gap on the board. On the other side, Seattle -1.5 prices at 21c and Seattle -6.5 at 11c, so the market gives the Storm about a one-in-five chance of winning outright and roughly one in nine of winning by seven or more.
The total is where the two books disagree with recent evidence rather than with each other. Kalshi has Over 179.5 at 55c and Over 182.5 at 46c, so the implied total sits near 181. Polymarket's O/U 180.5 prints 51c and its O/U 183.5 prints 45c, effectively the same number. Season averages support it: Liberty games have combined for 177.3 points and Storm games for 170.1. Recent form does not. New York's last five games averaged 199.4 combined points, including a 113-109 win at Los Angeles, and Seattle's last five averaged 194.6. The market is pricing the season and ignoring the last two weeks, which makes the Over rungs the most defensible position on the board.
Player props are Polymarket-only and thin. The listed lines are useful as anchors: Stewart points O/U 21.5, rebounds O/U 8.5 and assists O/U 3.5; Ionescu points O/U 19.5 and assists O/U 5.5; Jones rebounds O/U 9.5; Hiedeman points O/U 16.5; Malonga points O/U 15.5 and rebounds O/U 8.5. The prices are not. Every Over on that list except Malonga points O/U 15.5 at 49c prints between 28c and 37c on lines set at or near season averages, which is a thin-book artifact rather than a market read. Treat the lines as information and the prices as untradeable until volume shows up.
The market resolves on the final score of the Seattle Storm at New York Liberty game at Barclays Center on Monday, August 3, 2026, with a 7pm ET tip. Moneyline contracts pay the winning team and there is no draw outcome, since WNBA games play overtime until a winner emerges. Spread contracts settle against the final margin and total contracts settle against combined points, both including overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket settle from the official WNBA box score once the game is declared final, typically within a few hours of the final buzzer.
Sabally and Fiebich availability: both New York forwards are listed out with return dates of August 5, so the Liberty are two rotation pieces short at a 78c price.
Seattle's road profile: the Storm are 2-14 away from home and have lost eight straight, the strongest single argument for the 78c favorite.
The June head-to-head: Seattle won the only prior meeting 99-88 and leads the season series 1-0, the one result on the board that contradicts the price.
Recent totals versus the number: the total sits near 181 while New York's last five games averaged 199.4 combined points and Seattle's averaged 194.6.
Malonga against Jones: the Storm rookie averages 8.7 rebounds and 16.3 points against a Liberty center at 9.0 rebounds, the only individual matchup Seattle can win.
Cross-platform pricing: New York is 78c on both books, but Seattle is 23c on Polymarket against 24c on Kalshi, so the underdog side is a cent cheaper on Polymarket.
This result feeds two season-long boards directly. The New York Liberty season win total and the Seattle Storm season win total price the back half of a schedule that leaves New York in a four-team fight for East seeding and Seattle playing out the string at 6-25. The Liberty playoff qualification market is the live version of the same question for New York, and every October outcome routes through the WNBA Finals market.
On the individual side, Breanna Stewart's scoring line keeps her in the WNBA MVP market, which prices the league's award race across both platforms. Full club coverage lives on the New York Liberty team hub and the Seattle Storm team hub, and the rest of the league's daily boards sit on the sports hub.
The market resolves on the final score of the Seattle Storm at New York Liberty game at Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Monday, August 3, 2026, scheduled for a 7pm ET tip. Moneyline contracts pay $1 per share to the winning team and $0 to the loser, with no draw outcome because WNBA games play overtime until a winner emerges. Spread contracts settle against the final margin of victory and total contracts settle against combined points scored, both including any overtime. Kalshi and Polymarket settle from the official WNBA box score once the game is declared final, typically within a few hours of the final buzzer. If the game is postponed, settlement moves to the rescheduled date; if it is canceled outright, contracts void per each platform's published rules.
As of August 3, 2026, the New York Liberty are the 78c home favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and the Seattle Storm trade at 24c on Kalshi and 23c on Polymarket for a 23.5c consensus. That 54c gap is the widest moneyline on the three-game Monday slate.
New York is favored at about 78% implied probability against roughly 23% for Seattle as of August 3, 2026. DraftKings agrees at -375, or 78.9% implied, while ESPN's matchup predictor is more bullish on the Liberty at 83.9%.
The moneyline trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket at an identical 78c on the New York side. The full spread and total ladders are Kalshi-heavy, Polymarket carries the O/U 180.5 and O/U 183.5 rungs, and every player prop on this game is Polymarket-only.
The Kalshi ladder crosses 50% between New York -6.5 at 59c and New York -9.5 at 46c, implying a fair line near -8.5, which matches DraftKings. The total sits near 181, with Kalshi Over 179.5 at 55c and Polymarket O/U 180.5 at 51c as of August 3, 2026.
It resolves when the game goes final at Barclays Center on Monday, August 3, 2026, after a 7pm ET tip. Kalshi and Polymarket settle from the official WNBA box score, usually within a few hours of the final buzzer.
Watch the New York injury report on Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich, both carrying August 5 return dates, since a 78c price assumes the Liberty absorb two absences. A move through 74c on the New York side would mean the market has started pricing the depth problem.