Tempo vs Mercury Prediction Market Odds, August 29, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tempo | +9.5 — | O 173.5 — | 0% | — |
Mercury | -9.5 — | U 173.5 — | 100% | 100% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tempo | +9.5 — | O 173.5 — | — | |
Mercury | -9.5 — | U 173.5 — | 100% Kalshi |
Phoenix is the 79c moneyline favorite over Toronto on Kalshi as of Saturday morning, with the Tempo at 22c, and the price has been climbing all day from 73c on Friday evening. This is a rubber match between two eliminated teams, the Mercury 13-26 and the Tempo 11-28, and the board's real story is the total rather than the winner: the Over 179.5 rung has been marked down from 47c to 37c since Friday night while the Phoenix -9.5 spread has not moved at all. The board carries roughly $54.7K in lifetime volume across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Toronto arrives in Phoenix on the second night of a back to back, one night after a 73-93 loss at Las Vegas, and without the player who leads the Tempo in points, the player who leads them in assists, and the player who leads them in rebounds. That is the whole explanation for a 22c road price. The Mercury are not good either, having lost four in a row and eight of their last ten, but they are home, rested since Thursday, and holding a scoring margin roughly three points per game better than Toronto's. Tip is 10:00 PM ET (7:00 PM local) at Mortgage Matchup Center, on WNBA League Pass with TSN in Canada and AZ Family Sports Net locally.
Tempo vs Mercury Records and Recent Form
Phoenix is 13-26 and seventh in the Western Conference, 18 games back with five to play. Toronto is 11-28 and sixth in the East, 14.5 back with five to play. Neither can reach the postseason, and after tonight both schedules go dark for nearly three weeks: the Mercury do not play again until September 17, the Tempo until September 18.
The form is ugly on both sides. Phoenix has dropped four straight, including 84-94 and 73-80 to Washington in its last two home games, and is 2-8 over its last ten. Toronto is 1-9 over its last ten, with the only win an 82-79 home decision over Portland on August 22. The Mercury average 83.7 points and allow 87.7 for a differential of minus 4.0 per game. The Tempo average 86.7 and allow 93.6, a differential of minus 6.9. Toronto scores more and defends far worse, which is the shape of a team that plays fast and loses by double digits.
The splits argue against the size of the Phoenix number. The Mercury are 5-14 at home and 8-12 on the road, one of the few teams in the league that has been demonstrably worse in its own building. Toronto is 4-15 away, so the road side is no better, but a 79c home favorite whose home record is nine games under .500 is worth pricing carefully.
The season series is tied 1-1 and this is the decider. Toronto won 98-90 in Phoenix on May 19, then lost 89-80 at home on June 27. The Tempo have already beaten this team on this floor, which is the single strongest argument for the 22c side.
Availability is where the game is decided. Toronto is without Marina Mabrey (20.8 points per game, hip), Julie Allemand (5.6 assists, head), Maria Conde (4.6 rebounds), Aneesah Morrow (knee) and Nyara Sabally (calf). That is the leader in every headline category. Phoenix is without Kelsey Plum (lower leg), Marta Suarez (concussion), Valeriane Ayayi and Kyara Linskens, and Kahleah Copper, who leads the team at 21.3 points per game, is day to day with an ankle. Copper's status is the one input that moves this line before tip.
What the Tempo vs Mercury Line Is Saying
The moneyline is a Kalshi-only market on this board: Mercury 79c, Tempo 22c, a 101c book and a clean 79% implied read on Phoenix. ESPN's matchup predictor has Phoenix at 73.5%, so the market is roughly five points more confident in the home team than the model is. The sportsbook line agrees with the market rather than the model, with Phoenix at -425 and Toronto at +330.
The movement is one-directional and steady. Phoenix opened the captured series at 73c at 8:01 PM ET Friday and has traded up to 79c by 11:07 AM ET Saturday, a six point gain. Toronto has come down from 31c to 22c over the same window. The moneyline legs carry the board's volume, about $14.0K on the Mercury side and $13.5K on the Tempo side.
The spread has not participated in that move. Phoenix -9.5 sits at 50c on Kalshi and 50c on Polymarket, an exact agreement between the two books and a genuine coin flip on the number. It opened at 51c on Friday night and has held. Phoenix -12.5 is 38c. So the market has grown more certain that Phoenix wins without growing more certain that Phoenix wins big, which is what a favorite that keeps its edge while its top scorer is questionable should look like.
The total is the most active read on the board. Kalshi's Over 179.5 has been marked from 47c late Friday night to 37c on Saturday morning, and the surrounding ladder now prices Over 173.5 at 53c and Over 176.5 at 44c, which puts the market's implied number near 175. Polymarket agrees, with its Over 176.5 at 45c and its 177.5 line at 43c. The books opened near 179 and have converged on the sportsbook's 174.5. The two teams' season averages combine to roughly 176, and Toronto's last two outputs were 78 and 73, so the markdown is defensible rather than an overreaction.
The widest cross-platform disagreements are in the Phoenix props, not the game lines. Alyssa Thomas points Over 14.5 is 55c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket, a six point gap, and her assists Over 8.5 is 49c against 45c. Her rebounds Over 7.5 is much tighter at 58c and 56c. Thomas leads Phoenix at 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds per game, and with Copper's ankle in question her usage is the variable both books are guessing at. A trader with a view on Thomas has a materially different entry depending on which venue is used.
When the Tempo vs Mercury Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game, played Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. Spread contracts settle against the final margin and total contracts against the combined final score, with both platforms using the official WNBA final. Player props settle on the official box score. Settlement follows shortly after the game goes final, typically the same night or the following morning.
Key Tempo vs Mercury Catalysts
- Kahleah Copper's ankle: she is day to day and leads Phoenix at 21.3 points per game; her status is the biggest single price mover left before tip.
- Toronto's missing core: Mabrey, Allemand and Conde are all out, which removes the Tempo's leader in points, assists and rebounds simultaneously.
- Second night of a back to back: Toronto lost 73-93 at Las Vegas on Friday night and this is its third straight road game.
- The total drift: Over 179.5 has moved from 47c to 37c since Friday night, with the implied number now near 175 against a 174.5 sportsbook line.
- Phoenix home form: the Mercury are 5-14 at home and 8-12 on the road, so the venue is not the edge the 79c price implies.
- The May result: Toronto already won 98-90 in this building on May 19, the clearest data point supporting the 22c side.
Related Tempo vs Mercury Markets
Both season-long boards are still open and both are effectively decided. The Phoenix Mercury win total market and the Toronto Tempo win total market each have five games of runway left, and tonight's result moves one of them. The Tempo playoff market has already collapsed with Toronto 14.5 games out of the East race. For the contenders, the 2026 WNBA champion board and the WNBA MVP market carry far more volume than any single late-season game. Full team pages sit at Phoenix Mercury and Toronto Tempo, and every live WNBA board is on the WNBA hub.
Resolution Criteria
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the Toronto Tempo at Phoenix Mercury game scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0. Spread contracts settle against the official final margin and total contracts against the combined final score, including any overtime, using the official WNBA box score. Player prop contracts settle on the official box score for the named player. If the game is postponed and replayed on a later date, Kalshi and Polymarket carry the contract to the rescheduled date under their own rules; if it is canceled outright and not replayed, the contracts void per each platform's cancellation policy.
Key Factors
- Kahleah Copper day to day with an ankle issue, leads Phoenix at 21.3 points per game
- Toronto out Marina Mabrey (20.8 points), Julie Allemand (5.6 assists) and Maria Conde (4.6 rebounds)
- Toronto on the second night of a back to back after a 73-93 loss at Las Vegas
- Kalshi Over 179.5 marked from 47c Friday night to 37c Saturday morning, implied total now near 175
- Phoenix 5-14 at home versus 8-12 on the road, weaker in its own building
- Toronto already won 98-90 in Phoenix on May 19, season series tied 1-1
What are the current Tempo vs Mercury odds?
As of Saturday morning, August 29, 2026, Phoenix is 79c and Toronto is 22c on Kalshi's moneyline, a 79% implied read on the Mercury. Phoenix opened the captured series at 73c on Friday evening and has traded up six points since.
Where can I trade the Tempo vs Mercury market?
Kalshi carries the moneyline, the full spread ladder, team and game totals and player props for this game. Polymarket carries the spread at Phoenix -9.5, the totals near 176.5 and 177.5, and a set of player props. The board has traded roughly $54.7K in lifetime volume across both venues.
Who is favored in Tempo vs Mercury and by how much?
Phoenix is favored at 79c, or 79% implied, and is laid at -9.5 on the spread, which prices at 50c on both Kalshi and Polymarket. ESPN's matchup predictor is slightly lower on the Mercury at 73.5%.
When does the Tempo vs Mercury market resolve?
It resolves on the final score of the game, which tips at 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. Settlement follows shortly after the game goes final.
What should I watch before Tempo vs Mercury tips off?
Kahleah Copper's ankle is the one input that still moves this line; she leads Phoenix at 21.3 points per game and is listed day to day. Watch the total as well, which has already been marked down from an implied 179 to near 175 since Friday night.