| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Tempo | +9.5 49%50% | O 185.5 50% | 21%21% | 21% Kalshi |
▶Wings | -9.5 51%50% | U 185.5 50% | 80%80% | 80% Kalshi |
Dallas is the 79c moneyline favorite (80c on Kalshi, 78c on Polymarket) against a Toronto Tempo side priced at 22c on both books, with the spread parked near 9.5 points and the total near 185. The Wings are 19-14 and 9-6 at home but have lost three straight; the expansion Tempo are 10-22, 4-11 on the road, and on a nine-game losing streak. The relevant arc is the price itself: Toronto faced an 88c home favorite in Atlanta on August 10 and is looking at a 79c favorite here, the softest number the Tempo have been handed in over a week. The board above carries roughly $117K in cross-platform volume.
The 2026 expansion Toronto Tempo walk into College Park Center at 10-22 and riding a nine-game losing streak, and the market has still handed them the friendliest number they have seen in a week. Dallas is the 79c moneyline favorite, Toronto is 22c, and the spread sits near 9.5 points. Two nights earlier in Atlanta the Tempo were staring at an 88c home favorite, so the drop to a 79c chalk price is a real move in their direction. The board above carries roughly $117K in combined Kalshi and Polymarket volume, with about $56K of it on the Dallas moneyline alone.
Dallas enters at 19-14 overall and 9-6 at home, and the recent form does not match the price. The Wings have lost three straight, falling 96-92 at Washington, 94-76 at home to Golden State, and 103-90 at Minnesota, and they are 4-6 across their last 10 games. Paige Bueckers is the reason the number holds a 79c handle through that skid: she leads the Wings at 20.1 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game, and no other rotation piece carries comparable usage.
Toronto is playing its inaugural WNBA season as the league's first franchise based outside the United States, and the ledger reads 10-22 with a 4-11 road split. The Tempo have not won since a 93-91 home decision over New York on July 12, a nine-game slide that includes a 32-point loss to Minnesota on July 31, back-to-back defeats at Golden State by 17 and 11, and a 107-95 loss at Atlanta on August 10. Marina Mabrey leads the roster at 20.7 points per game, Julie Allemand runs the offense at 5.7 assists, and Nyara Sabally leads the glass at 5.2 rebounds. Sandy Brondello's group has been competitive in stretches and has been buried in others, which is exactly the variance profile that keeps a 22c price honest.
The head-to-head record belongs entirely to Dallas. The Wings took both prior meetings, 89-76 on July 5 and 108-95 on July 10, and both were played in Toronto. Getting the third meeting at home is the structural argument for the 79c number. Overnight the line has held rather than moved: Kalshi's Dallas moneyline opened the current snapshot window at 79c and sits at 80c, while Polymarket's Toronto side ticked from 21c to 22c. That leaves a 2c cross-platform gap on the favorite and no gap at all on the underdog, which is about as tight as a WNBA board gets and says both books are reading this game the same way.
The spread is the cleanest expression of the read. Dallas -9.5 trades at 48c, split 47c on Kalshi and 49c on Polymarket, which places the market's fair number just past nine points rather than at a blowout figure. The Kalshi ladder fills in the shape: Dallas -6.5 at 61c, -12.5 at 38c, -15.5 at 29c, -18.5 at 21c, and -21.5 at 16c. A market that prices a 15.5-point Dallas win at only 29c is explicitly declining to forecast the kind of margin Toronto absorbed in Minneapolis, and Polymarket's -10.5 rung at 45c reinforces that the true line lives in the nine-to-eleven band.
The total lands near 185. Polymarket has 183.5 at 54c and 184.5 at 52c, while Kalshi's over 185.5 prints 50c, over 179.5 sits at 64c, and over 191.5 sits at 36c. Team totals point the same direction: Dallas over 97.5 points trades at 76c, consistent with a favorite expected in the high 90s against a Toronto defense that has conceded 100 or more four times during the losing streak.
Polymarket carries the player props on this board. Paige Bueckers over 4.5 rebounds is 37c against a 4.1 per game average, Alanna Smith over 12.5 points is 52c, Julie Allemand over 6.5 assists is 10c against her 5.7 season mark, and Marina Mabrey over 3.5 assists is 20c. Several prop rungs are thinly traded, so the posted number is a wide-quote midpoint rather than a firm two-sided price. Treat the lightly traded rungs as indicative and lean on the moneyline, spread, and total for the actual read.
The board settles the night of August 12, 2026, once the game goes final at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, with a scheduled 8:00 pm ET tip. The moneyline pays the winning team's contract at $1 per share, the spread settles on final margin, and the total and team totals settle on final points scored with overtime included. Kalshi and Polymarket both resolve from the official WNBA box score, so there is no gap between the two platforms' settlement source.
Toronto's previous board, Tempo at the Atlanta Dream, is the direct comparison point for how much softer this price is. The second July meeting between these teams, Wings vs Tempo on July 10, shows what a 13-point Dallas win looked like against a similar number, and Wings vs Lynx covers the most recent Dallas loss. Season-long context lives on the Dallas Wings hub and the Toronto Tempo hub.
The moneyline resolves to the team that wins the game at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, scheduled for 8:00 pm ET on August 12, 2026. Each winning team contract pays $1 per share and the losing side settles at $0, with overtime included in the final score for every market on the board. Spread markets settle on the final margin, so Dallas -9.5 pays only if Dallas wins by 10 or more, and the total and team-total markets settle on final points scored. First-half markets settle on the score at the halftime buzzer. Kalshi and Polymarket both resolve from the official WNBA box score once the game is final. If the game is postponed, both platforms carry the contracts to the rescheduled date; if it is canceled and not replayed, the contracts void and settle under each platform’s cancellation rules.
As of August 12, 2026, Dallas is the 79c moneyline favorite, priced at 80c on Kalshi and 78c on Polymarket, while Toronto trades at 22c on both platforms. The spread is Dallas -9.5 at 48c and the total sits near 185.
Dallas is favored at 79c, roughly a 79% implied read. The Wings are 19-14 and 9-6 at home and have won both prior meetings with Toronto this season, 89-76 on July 5 and 108-95 on July 10.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket list this game, with about $117K in combined volume. Kalshi carries the deeper spread, total, and first-half ladders; Polymarket carries the player props including Paige Bueckers over 4.5 rebounds at 37c.
It resolves once the game goes final at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, scheduled for 8:00 pm ET on August 12, 2026. Both platforms settle from the official WNBA box score, and overtime counts toward the final score.
Watch whether the spread drifts past the -10.5 rung that Polymarket prices at 45c, and watch Dallas form: the Wings are 4-6 in their last 10 and lost 103-90 at Minnesota, so a 79c price is leaning on the home split rather than momentum.