Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction Market Odds, July 28, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Tempo | +15.5 52%52% | O 183.5 54%54% | 11%11% | 11% Kalshi |
â–¶Lynx | -15.5 48%48% | U 183.5 46%46% | 90%90% | 90% Kalshi |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Toronto Tempo | +15.5 | O 183.5 | 11% Kalshi | |
â–¶Minnesota Lynx | -15.5 | U 183.5 | 90% Kalshi |
Minnesota is the 90c moneyline favorite (90c Kalshi, 90c Polymarket) over the expansion Toronto Tempo, the heaviest chalk on the July 28, 2026 WNBA slate. The 22-6 Lynx, 12-2 on the road and 10-4 at home, open roughly a 15-point spread on the 10-16 Tempo, with the game total set near 183.5. Both books price the moneyline identically, so there is no cross-platform edge on the winner. The live board above carries the current spread, total, and prop prices across roughly $46K in combined volume.
Minnesota opens the July 28, 2026 meeting with Toronto as the biggest favorite on the WNBA board, priced at 90c on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The 22-6 Lynx are the class of the league, while the 10-16 Toronto Tempo remain a first-year expansion team still working toward a playoff push. The moneyline gap of 90c to 11c implies Minnesota wins close to nine times in ten.
Tempo vs Lynx Records and Form
Minnesota carries a 22-6 record into the game, including a 12-2 mark on the road and 10-4 at Target Center, where this game is played. Napheesa Collier anchors the Lynx at 24.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, with Olivia Miles adding 19.3 points and a team-high 6.0 assists and Natasha Howard pulling 8.0 rebounds a night. Toronto sits at 10-16 overall and 4-6 on the road, a competitive line for an expansion roster in its debut season. Marina Mabrey leads the Tempo at 21.0 points per game, with Julie Allemand distributing 5.4 assists and Maria Conde grabbing 4.6 rebounds. The Minnesota Lynx hub tracks the full-season picture behind this matchup.
How the Tempo vs Lynx Market Prices the Game
The moneyline is the cleanest read: Minnesota at 90c (90c Kalshi, 90c Polymarket) against Toronto at 11c. The spread market centers Minnesota at -15.5, priced at 48c on Kalshi, essentially a coin flip on whether the Lynx cover a 15-point number, while Polymarket's nearest line sits at Minnesota -14.5 at 51c. DraftKings independently posts Minnesota -15.5, matching the prediction-market read. The total is set around 183.5, trading 54c to the over on Kalshi with Polymarket's 182.5 line at 55c, a slight lean toward points. The swing factor is Collier and Miles against a Tempo defense that has conceded the road math all season. Toronto's path is Mabrey's scoring keeping the game inside the number rather than the outright upset the market gives 11c.
Tempo vs Lynx Line Movement
The moneyline has not moved. Minnesota opened at 90c on both books in the tracked window and held at 90c into game day, with Toronto flat at 11c. The spread and total were equally stable, with Minnesota's -12.5 ticking from 59c to 60c and the Kalshi total holding at 183.5. A flat line on a heavy favorite is the market signaling no new injury or lineup news, and the price reflects a settled read on a 22-6 team hosting a 10-16 opponent.
When the Tempo vs Lynx Market Resolves
The market resolves when the game goes final at Target Center on July 28, 2026. The moneyline pays the team that wins outright, the spread settles on the final margin against Minnesota -15.5, and the total settles on the combined points against the 183.5 line. See the resolution criteria below for cancellation and postponement edge cases.
Key Tempo vs Lynx Catalysts
- Napheesa Collier (24.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg) and Olivia Miles (19.3 ppg, 6.0 apg) pacing the 22-6 Lynx offense at home.
- Minnesota -15.5 spread priced at a coin-flip 48c on Kalshi, the real test on the board.
- Marina Mabrey (21.0 ppg) carrying Toronto's expansion offense as the only path to an 11c upset.
- Game total near 183.5 leaning slightly over at 54c on Kalshi and 55c on Polymarket's 182.5 line.
- Moneyline held flat at 90c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling no new injury or lineup news.
- Minnesota's 12-2 road and 10-4 home split against Toronto's 4-6 road mark.
Related WNBA Markets
Minnesota's title case runs through the WNBA championship market, while Toronto's debut season is tracked on its season-win total and playoff-berth market. For the full slate and standings context, see the WNBA hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the team that wins the game between the Toronto Tempo and Minnesota Lynx played at Target Center on July 28, 2026. The moneyline pays $1 per share to holders of the winning team and $0 to the loser. The spread settles on the final margin against the Minnesota -15.5 line, and the total settles on the combined final score against the 183.5 line. Contracts settle on Kalshi and Polymarket once the game is official. If the game is postponed past the platform cutoff, canceled, or otherwise voided, contracts resolve per each platform's WNBA game rules.
Key Factors
- Napheesa Collier (24.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg) and Olivia Miles (19.3 ppg, 6.0 apg) pacing the 22-6 Lynx offense at home
- Minnesota -15.5 spread priced at a coin-flip 48c on Kalshi, the real test on the board
- Marina Mabrey (21.0 ppg) carrying Toronto's expansion offense as the only path to an 11c upset
- Game total near 183.5 leaning slightly over at 54c on Kalshi and 55c on Polymarket's 182.5 line
- Moneyline held flat at 90c on both Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling no new injury or lineup news
- Minnesota's 12-2 road and 10-4 home split against Toronto's 4-6 road mark
What are the current Tempo vs Lynx odds?
As of July 28, 2026, Minnesota is the 90c moneyline favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with Toronto priced at 11c. That is the heaviest favorite on the day's WNBA board.
Who is favored in Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx?
The 22-6 Minnesota Lynx are favored at 90c, an implied win probability near 90%. The 10-16 Toronto Tempo, a first-year expansion team, are the 11c underdog on July 28, 2026.
What is the spread and total for Tempo vs Lynx?
Minnesota is a 15.5-point favorite, with the -15.5 line priced at 48c on Kalshi and Polymarket sitting at Minnesota -14.5. The game total is set near 183.5, trading 54c to the over.
Where can I trade the Tempo vs Lynx market?
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with about $46K in combined volume as of July 28, 2026. The moneyline is priced identically at 90c across both books.
Did the Tempo vs Lynx line move?
No. Minnesota held at 90c on both Kalshi and Polymarket across the tracked window into game day on July 28, 2026, with the spread and total equally stable, a sign of no new injury or lineup news.