The World Cup 2026 third place market resolved on July 18, 2026, when England beat France 6-4 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kalshi settled England Yes that evening, and Polymarket resolved its England market Yes just after midnight. France had been the favorite at about 70% on both venues at kickoff, and England led 4-0 by halftime.
Resolved July 18, 2026.
England finished third at the 2026 World Cup, beating France 6-4 in the third-place match at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on July 18, 2026. The market had it the other way: at kickoff France was 70% on Kalshi and 71% on Polymarket, with England at 31% and 30%. England led 4-0 at halftime, held on through a four-goal France comeback, and both venues settled England Yes.
Bukayo Saka scored a hat trick, in the 37th minute, in first-half stoppage time and from the penalty spot in the 87th, according to ESPN's match data. Declan Rice opened the scoring in the 3rd minute and Ezri Konsa headed in the second in the 18th. France scored four times after the break: Kylian Mbappé in the 48th and 66th minutes, Bradley Barcola in the 54th and Ousmane Dembélé in the sixth minute of stoppage time. Jude Bellingham finished a breakaway two minutes later for the sixth.
The 10 goals were the most ever in a World Cup third-place match and made it the highest-scoring World Cup game since Hungary beat El Salvador 10-1 in 1982, the Associated Press reported. Third is England's second-best World Cup finish, behind the 1966 title. A sellout crowd of 64,478 watched Didier Deschamps' last match as France coach after 14 years.
Kalshi finalized its third-place event at 7:09 p.m. ET on July 18: England resolved Yes, and France and the other 46 listed teams resolved No. Polymarket's France market closed at 9:04 p.m. ET, and its England market closed at 12:48 a.m. ET on July 19 and resolved Yes. Kalshi's event traded about 5.3M contracts across 48 team markets, 2.28M of them on France. Polymarket's, listed on July 13 with the four semifinalists, traded $451K across seven markets.
The third-place match takes the two beaten semifinalists, so the board only became a two-team market in the final week. Dates are U.S. Eastern:
Kalshi settled each team No as it was knocked out, leaving four after the quarterfinals.
Kalshi listed all 48 teams on June 2, 2026. Polymarket listed only the semifinalists, on July 13. The table uses each venue's close at midnight Eastern, and the last row is kickoff.
| Date | England, Kalshi | England, Polymarket | France, Kalshi | France, Polymarket |
| June 11 (opening day) | 7% | not listed | 16% | not listed |
| June 18 (30 days out) | 12% | not listed | 19% | not listed |
| July 11 (7 days out) | 22% | not listed | 25% | not listed |
| July 14 (Spain beat France) | 19% | 18% | 64% | 66% |
| July 15 (Argentina beat England) | 38% | 37% | 62% | 62% |
| July 17 (day before) | 34% | 35% | 66% | 66% |
| July 18 (kickoff) | 31% | 30% | 70% | 71% |
Between the quarterfinals and the semifinals the four contenders sat between 18% and 36% on Kalshi. France became the favorite the day it lost: its Kalshi contract went from 24% to 64% on July 14, and it stayed between 62% and 70% through kickoff. England's price doubled to 38% the next night once Argentina put it in the match. From July 14 on, the two venues' midnight closes were within two points of each other on both teams.
Did the market get it right? No. It priced France as roughly a two-to-one favorite and England scored four times before halftime. By 6 p.m. ET, with England 4-0 up, its Kalshi contract was 97%. The miss was not a cross-venue disagreement: Kalshi and Polymarket had the same read and were wrong together.
This match settled two other boards. Mbappé's two goals took him to 10 and won the World Cup Golden Boot 2026 result, and England's six lifted it level with France on 20 goals, which decided the World Cup 2026 team goals leader result on a tiebreak. The final the next day went to Spain, 1-0 over Argentina after extra time, on the 2026 World Cup winner result.
The next vote on the season's players is the Ballon d'Or, presented in London on October 26, 2026, and the Ballon d'Or 2026 odds board is still open. The next men's World Cup is in 2030, co-hosted by Spain, Portugal and Morocco, and Prediction Genius has no 2030 third-place board yet. Team pages: England national team markets and France national team markets, with every open board on the soccer markets hub.
Resolves to the country that wins the third-place match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, played between the two beaten semifinalists on July 18, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kalshi's contracts ask whether a team wins the third-place match originally scheduled for July 18, 2026, and settle each eliminated team No. Polymarket's ask whether a country finishes third: a country that can no longer finish third resolves No, a tie goes to the team FIFA officially recognizes as third (alphabetically first if FIFA names more than one), and the market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past August 2, 2026, or no third-place team is declared. The winning country's contract pays $1 per share and every other contract pays $0. Kalshi settled England Yes at 7:09 p.m. ET on July 18, 2026, and Polymarket resolved its England market Yes after it closed at 12:48 a.m. ET on July 19, 2026.
England finished third, beating France 6-4 in the third-place match at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on July 18, 2026. Bukayo Saka scored a hat trick.
Kalshi settled England Yes at 7:09 p.m. ET on July 18, 2026, about two hours after kickoff. Polymarket's England market closed at 12:48 a.m. ET on July 19 and resolved Yes, with France and every other team settling No.
France was the favorite at kickoff, 70% on Kalshi and 71% on Polymarket, with England at 31% and 30%. The night before, France closed at 66% on both venues.
England scored four times before halftime through Declan Rice, Ezri Konsa and Bukayo Saka twice, then held off a France comeback that included two Kylian Mbappé goals. The 10 goals were the most ever in a World Cup third-place match.
The Ballon d'Or is presented in London on October 26, 2026, and its board is still open. The next men's World Cup is in 2030 in Spain, Portugal and Morocco, and no 2030 third-place board is listed yet.