The Trump impeachment market asks one binary question: will the U.S. House of Representatives vote to impeach President Trump before his term ends on January 20, 2029? Impeachment is a House action that requires only a simple majority, and it is separate from removal, which would take a two-thirds Senate conviction this contract does not measure. The market has drawn more than $434K in cumulative volume, and the live board above shows the current Yes and No prices.
Impeachment and removal are not the same thing, and this market only tracks the first. The Trump impeachment contract resolves on whether the U.S. House of Representatives formally impeaches President Trump at any point before his term ends on January 20, 2029. A House majority is enough to impeach. Conviction and removal would take a separate two-thirds Senate vote that this market does not measure. The contract has drawn more than $434K in cumulative volume, and the live board above tracks the current Yes and No prices.
Impeachment is the formal step in which the House of Representatives adopts articles of impeachment against a sitting official by simple-majority vote. It is a charge, not a conviction. This Trump impeachment market resolves Yes the moment the House passes articles against President Trump during the current term, regardless of what the Senate does afterward.
The distinction matters because impeachment has happened before without removal. President Trump was impeached twice in his first term, in December 2019 and again in January 2021, and the Senate acquitted both times. Across U.S. history, three presidents have been impeached by the House and none has been removed by the Senate. Those prior impeachments fall outside this contract, which is scoped to a new impeachment during the term ending January 20, 2029.
Because impeachment needs only a simple House majority, the single biggest structural driver of this Trump impeachment market is which party controls the House and by what margin. A chamber controlled by the opposition has the votes to bring and pass articles. A chamber held by the president's party rarely advances them. The price effectively encodes the market's read on House composition and the political appetite to act.
That puts the 2026 midterm elections at the center of the question. Control of the House for the back half of the term is decided there, and a shift in the majority would reshape the path to a Yes. Readers tracking that variable can follow the U.S. House control odds alongside this contract. The narrower the eventual majority, the more any single investigation, hearing, or resolution introducing articles can move the line.
The market resolves Yes if the House of Representatives impeaches President Trump at any time before January 20, 2029, the end of the current presidential term. If no impeachment vote passes the House by that date, it resolves No. The source of truth is the official House vote on articles of impeachment, not a Senate trial, a censure, or an inquiry that never reaches a floor vote. The contract trades on Kalshi under the ticker KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20, and the live board above reflects the current Yes and No prices.
Five factors shape where the Trump impeachment market trades and how fast it moves:
For adjacent questions on the same presidency, compare the Trump resignation odds, which tracks a voluntary exit rather than a House charge, and the U.S. House control odds, the structural variable underneath this contract. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for related election and governance contracts, and see more analysis from Genius Staff.
Resolves Yes if the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach President Trump at any point before January 20, 2029, the end of the current presidential term. It resolves No if no articles of impeachment pass the House by that date. The source of truth is the official recorded House vote on articles of impeachment. A Senate trial, conviction, removal, censure, or an inquiry that never reaches a floor vote does not by itself resolve the market. The contract trades on Kalshi under ticker KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20. Each share pays $1 if the resolution condition is met and $0 otherwise.
The market is a binary Yes/No contract on Kalshi that resolves by January 20, 2029, and has drawn more than $434K in cumulative volume. The live board above shows the current Yes and No prices.
It resolves Yes if the House of Representatives impeaches President Trump before January 20, 2029, and No if no articles pass the House by that date. The source of truth is the official recorded House vote.
The contract is listed on Kalshi under the ticker KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20. The live board above tracks its current Yes and No prices.
No. Impeachment is a House charge passed by simple majority, while removal requires a two-thirds Senate conviction that this market does not track. Trump was impeached in 2019 and 2021 and acquitted both times.
Watch House control and the 2026 midterm elections, which set the chamber margin for the rest of the term, plus any move to introduce articles of impeachment on the House floor.