The Trump Resign 2029 market asks one binary question: will the president elected for the 2025-2029 term leave office voluntarily before it ends. It trades on Kalshi across roughly $355K in cumulative volume, with no Polymarket equivalent live yet. Resignation is one of four early-exit paths priced separately, alongside House impeachment, removal after conviction, and the 25th Amendment. The contract resolves in January 2029; the live board above carries the current prices.
A sitting U.S. president has resigned exactly once in history, and the Trump Resign 2029 market prices the odds it happens again during the 2025-2029 term. This is a single binary contract, not a multi-candidate field. A buyer of Yes is betting the president formally steps down before the term runs out; a buyer of No is betting he serves the full four years. The contract has not closed outside a 17c to 27c band since daily records begin in February 2026, and it spent the back half of August 2026 inside a 19c to 21c range. The live board above shows where Kalshi traders have the line today.
The contract resolves Yes only if the president elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office. The bar is a voluntary departure: a formal resignation that hands the presidency to the vice president under the Constitution. That is a narrow trigger, and the distinction matters for how the market should be read.
Removal is not resignation. If the president were impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, or removed under the 25th Amendment, or left office for any reason other than a voluntary step-down, this contract does not resolve Yes on those grounds alone. Those scenarios are priced on their own separate markets. The Trump Resign 2029 question is specifically about a chosen exit, which is why it trades as a low-probability tail rather than a coin flip.
The yes price on a binary like this reads directly as an implied probability: a yes quote of 21c means the market sees roughly a 1-in-5 chance of resignation before the term ends. Kalshi quotes the yes and no sides separately, and the two sum to slightly more than 100c once the book's spread is included, so read the real no price off the live board rather than assuming it equals 100 minus the yes.
Volume is the other tell. Cumulative volume on the contract has climbed to roughly $355K, up about $23K in the two weeks to August 31, 2026, with about $13K of that turning over in the last 24 hours alone. The price went essentially nowhere across the same stretch, holding 19c to 21c through the back half of August with a brief 25c print on August 31. More money crossing at a flat price is traders restating the same view, not repricing the question.
The sharpest context comes from the neighboring exit-path contracts, because they separate the accusation from the departure. As of August 31, 2026, Trump impeachment 2029 odds trade at 67c, with Kalshi at 68c and Polymarket at 66c on a $624K board. The narrower question of impeachment plus Senate conviction and removal sits at 16c, and the 25th Amendment Section IV path holds at 29c. Resignation at 21c sits inside that cluster. The impeachment board has firmed roughly 4c over the past two weeks while resignation has not moved at all, which is the cleanest evidence that traders are pricing a charge, not a departure.
The congressional calendar is the piece that has genuinely changed since this page was last reviewed. The midterms fall on November 3, 2026, now about nine weeks out, and the U.S. House control market has the Democratic Party at 87c across Kalshi and Polymarket on a $36.6M board. Impeachment needs only a House majority, which is why that contract trades at 67c. Resignation needs the president's own decision, which is why this one trades at 21c. The distance between those two numbers is the entire question this market is asking.
Term structure closes the read. The broadest early-exit contract, Trump out of office before 2027, carries $17.1M across both platforms and trades at 6.5c. It pays on resignation, removal, death, or any other end of the presidency by December 31, 2026. The resignation-only version of that same window trades at 4c. Set the two side by side and the market is saying most of the near-term exit risk it prices is resignation risk specifically, and that almost none of the probability on the full-term board is assigned to the next four months. That risk is placed in 2027 and 2028, which is why this contract barely reacts to headlines that move nothing on the calendar.
The contract settles at the end of the 2025-2029 presidential term, with a resolution date of January 21, 2029, immediately after the term concludes on January 20, 2029. It resolves Yes if the president has formally resigned the office at any point before then, and No if he completes the full term. The source of truth is the official record of the president leaving office. A resignation announced but not yet effective does not settle the market until the departure is formal.
Resignation is one of several ways this term can end early, and each path has its own board. The broadest of them, Trump out of office before 2027, rolls every exit route into a single $17.1M contract on a December 2026 deadline. The Trump impeachment and removal odds price the full congressional path through Senate conviction, while the 25th Amendment Section IV market covers involuntary transfer of power. For the congressional backdrop that shapes all of them, the U.S. Senate control odds sit alongside the House board on the November 3 ballot. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for related contracts.
Resolves Yes if the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office at any point before the term concludes. The market settles on January 21, 2029, immediately after the term ends on January 20, 2029, and resolves No if the president serves the full term. Only a voluntary resignation triggers Yes; removal by impeachment and conviction, removal under the 25th Amendment, death, or any involuntary departure does not resolve this contract Yes on those grounds, as those outcomes are priced on separate markets. The source of truth is the official record of the president leaving office. Each contract pays $1 per share on the side that resolves true.
The contract trades as a single yes/no market on Kalshi across roughly $355K in cumulative volume, and held a 19c to 21c band through the back half of August 2026 with a brief 25c print on August 31. The live board above shows the current yes and no prices, which read directly as the implied probability of a resignation before the 2025-2029 term ends.
It settles on January 21, 2029, right after the presidential term concludes on January 20, 2029. It resolves Yes if the president has formally resigned before then, and No if he serves the full term.
No. The contract resolves Yes only on a voluntary resignation of the office. Removal by impeachment and conviction, removal under the 25th Amendment, or any involuntary departure is priced on separate markets and does not settle this one Yes on those grounds. As of August 31, 2026 the impeachment board trades at 67c while impeachment plus Senate removal sits at 16c.
The contract is listed on Kalshi under the ticker KXTRUMPRESIGN. There is no Polymarket equivalent live today, so there is no cross-platform price to compare on this board, though the related impeachment market does trade on both venues.
The November 3, 2026 midterms are the next scheduled catalyst, now about nine weeks out, along with legal rulings and health news. Watch the December 2026 any-cause exit contract at 6.5c against the resignation-only version at 4c: that pair is the fastest tell on whether traders are pulling early-exit risk forward into this term rather than 2027 and 2028.