The Trump Resign 2029 market asks one binary question: will the president elected for the 2025-2029 term leave office voluntarily before it ends. It trades on Kalshi across roughly $332K in cumulative volume, with no Polymarket equivalent live yet. Resignation is one of four early-exit paths priced separately, alongside House impeachment, removal after conviction, and the 25th Amendment. The contract resolves in January 2029; the live board above carries the current prices.
A sitting U.S. president has resigned exactly once in history, and the Trump Resign 2029 market prices the odds it happens again during the 2025-2029 term. This is a single binary contract, not a multi-candidate field. A buyer of Yes is betting the president formally steps down before the term runs out; a buyer of No is betting he serves the full four years. The contract has held a narrow 17c to 27c band since February 2026 and has spent August trading at the low end of it. The live board above shows where Kalshi traders have the line today.
The contract resolves Yes only if the president elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office. The bar is a voluntary departure: a formal resignation that hands the presidency to the vice president under the Constitution. That is a narrow trigger, and the distinction matters for how the market should be read.
Removal is not resignation. If the president were impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, or removed under the 25th Amendment, or left office for any reason other than a voluntary step-down, this contract does not resolve Yes on those grounds alone. Those scenarios are priced on their own separate markets. The Trump Resign 2029 question is specifically about a chosen exit, which is why it trades as a low-probability tail rather than a coin flip.
The yes price on a binary like this reads directly as an implied probability: a yes quote of 20c means the market sees roughly a 1-in-5 chance of resignation before the term ends. Kalshi quotes the yes and no sides separately, and the two sum to slightly more than 100c once the book's spread is included, so read the real no price off the live board rather than assuming it equals 100 minus the yes.
Volume is the other tell. Cumulative volume on the contract has climbed to roughly $332K, up about $76K since late June, while the price went the other way. The market closed in the mid-20s through the back half of June, touched 27c on June 20, and has traded in a 19c to 20c band through mid-August. That combination, more money and a lower price, is traders adding conviction to the No side rather than losing interest in the question.
The sharpest context comes from the neighboring exit-path contracts, because they separate the accusation from the departure. As of mid-August 2026, Trump impeachment 2029 odds sit near 63c across Kalshi and Polymarket, the narrower question of impeachment plus Senate conviction and removal trades near 15c, and the 25th Amendment Section IV path trades near 29c. Resignation at 20c sits inside that cluster. Read together, the boards price a strong chance of a formal House charge and a weak chance that any single mechanism actually ends the term early.
Term structure is the last piece. The near-dated companion, the resign by December 31, 2026 contract, trades near 3c on Polymarket. Almost none of the resignation probability carried on the full-term board is assigned to the next four months. The market is placing that risk in 2027 and 2028, which is why the full-term contract barely reacts to day-to-day headlines that move nothing on the calendar.
The contract settles at the end of the 2025-2029 presidential term, with a resolution date of January 21, 2029, immediately after the term concludes on January 20, 2029. It resolves Yes if the president has formally resigned the office at any point before then, and No if he completes the full term. The source of truth is the official record of the president leaving office. A resignation announced but not yet effective does not settle the market until the departure is formal.
Resignation is one of four ways this term can end early, and each has its own board. The Trump impeachment and removal odds price the full congressional path through Senate conviction, while the 25th Amendment Section IV market covers involuntary transfer of power. For the congressional backdrop that shapes all of them, the U.S. House control odds track which party holds the chamber after November. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for related contracts.
Resolves Yes if the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office at any point before the term concludes. The market settles on January 21, 2029, immediately after the term ends on January 20, 2029, and resolves No if the president serves the full term. Only a voluntary resignation triggers Yes; removal by impeachment and conviction, removal under the 25th Amendment, death, or any involuntary departure does not resolve this contract Yes on those grounds, as those outcomes are priced on separate markets. The source of truth is the official record of the president leaving office. Each contract pays $1 per share on the side that resolves true.
The contract trades as a single yes/no market on Kalshi across roughly $332K in cumulative volume, and has held a 19c to 20c band through mid-August 2026 after closing in the mid-20s in June. The live board above shows the current yes and no prices, which read directly as the implied probability of a resignation before the 2025-2029 term ends.
It settles on January 21, 2029, right after the presidential term concludes on January 20, 2029. It resolves Yes if the president has formally resigned before then, and No if he serves the full term.
No. The contract resolves Yes only on a voluntary resignation of the office. Removal by impeachment and conviction, removal under the 25th Amendment, or any involuntary departure is priced on separate markets and does not settle this one Yes on those grounds.
The contract is listed on Kalshi under the ticker KXTRUMPRESIGN. There is no Polymarket equivalent live today, so there is no cross-platform price to compare on this board, though the related impeachment market does trade on both venues.
The November 3, 2026 midterms are the next scheduled catalyst, along with legal rulings and health news. Watch the near-dated December 2026 resignation contract near 3c as the early tell on whether traders are pulling resignation risk forward into this term rather than 2027 and 2028.