The Trump Resign 2029 market asks one binary question: will the president elected for the 2025-2029 term leave office voluntarily before that term ends. It trades on Kalshi across roughly $256K in cumulative volume as a single yes/no contract, with no Polymarket equivalent live yet. The live board above carries the current yes and no prices; the contract resolves in January 2029, when the term concludes.
A sitting U.S. president has resigned exactly once in history, and the Trump Resign 2029 market prices the odds it happens again during the 2025-2029 term. This is a single binary contract, not a multi-candidate field. A buyer of Yes is betting the president formally steps down before the term runs out; a buyer of No is betting he serves the full four years. The live board above shows where Kalshi traders have the line today.
The contract resolves Yes only if the president elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office. The bar is a voluntary departure: a formal resignation that hands the presidency to the vice president under the Constitution. That is a narrow trigger, and the distinction matters for how the market should be read.
Removal is not resignation. If the president were impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, or removed under the 25th Amendment, or left office for any reason other than a voluntary step-down, this contract does not resolve Yes on those grounds alone. Those scenarios are priced on their own separate markets. The Trump Resign 2029 question is specifically about a chosen exit, which is why it tends to trade as a low-probability tail rather than a coin flip.
The yes price on a binary like this reads directly as an implied probability: a yes quote of 20c means the market sees roughly a 1-in-5 chance of resignation before the term ends, and the matching no price reflects the inverse. Because Kalshi prices the yes and no sides separately, the two will not always sum to exactly 100c once the platform fee structure is accounted for, so read the real no price on the live board rather than assuming it equals 100 minus the yes.
Volume is the other tell. With about $256K in cumulative volume on the contract, this is a watched-but-not-frenzied market. Resignation contracts spike on news cycles and settle back down when the headlines fade, so a sharp move on the live board usually maps to a specific catalyst rather than steady drift. The market currently lists on Kalshi only, so there is no cross-platform spread to arbitrage today; if a Polymarket equivalent opens, the two prices become directly comparable.
The contract settles at the end of the 2025-2029 presidential term, with a resolution date of January 21, 2029, immediately after the term concludes on January 20, 2029. It resolves Yes if the president has formally resigned the office at any point before then, and No if he completes the full term. The source of truth is the official record of the president leaving office. A resignation announced but not yet effective does not settle the market until the departure is formal.
Resignation is one of several ways a term can end early, and the cleaner companion contract is the Trump impeachment 2029 market, which prices the removal path rather than a voluntary exit. For the congressional backdrop that shapes both, the U.S. House control market tracks which party holds the chamber. Browse the full politics prediction markets hub for related contracts, and see more coverage from Genius Staff.
Resolves Yes if the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office at any point before the term concludes. The market settles on January 21, 2029, immediately after the term ends on January 20, 2029, and resolves No if the president serves the full term. Only a voluntary resignation triggers Yes; removal by impeachment and conviction, removal under the 25th Amendment, death, or any involuntary departure does not resolve this contract Yes on those grounds, as those outcomes are priced on separate markets. The source of truth is the official record of the president leaving office. Each contract pays $1 per share on the side that resolves true.
The contract trades as a single yes/no market on Kalshi across roughly $256K in cumulative volume. The live board above shows the current yes and no prices, which read directly as the implied probability of a resignation before the 2025-2029 term ends.
It settles on January 21, 2029, right after the presidential term concludes on January 20, 2029. It resolves Yes if the president has formally resigned before then, and No if he serves the full term.
No. The contract resolves Yes only on a voluntary resignation of the office. Removal by impeachment and conviction, removal under the 25th Amendment, or any involuntary departure is priced on separate markets and does not settle this one Yes on those grounds.
The contract is listed on Kalshi under the ticker KXTRUMPRESIGN. There is no Polymarket equivalent live today, so there is no cross-platform spread to compare; if one opens, the two prices become directly comparable.
Watch for legal rulings, health news, and shifts in congressional control, which are the catalysts that move resignation odds most. Expect short-lived spikes on single headlines that tend to mean-revert as the news cycle cools.