The Trump's Next Attorney General market resolved to Todd Blanche on August 8, 2026, when the Senate confirmed him 50-49, with Republicans Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins voting no. Blanche had served as acting attorney general since Trump removed Pam Bondi on April 2, and Trump sent his nomination to the Senate on June 8. Kalshi settled the Blanche contract Yes, and Polymarket's next-AG event resolved to him the same day.
Resolved August 8, 2026.
The Trump's Next Attorney General market resolved to Todd Blanche. The Senate confirmed Blanche as attorney general in a 50-49 vote at about 4:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, August 8, 2026, four months after President Trump pushed out Pam Bondi and made Blanche, then deputy attorney general, the acting AG. Blanche went in as the clear favorite, at 98% on Kalshi at the August 7 close, but he spent the first three weeks of the market as the underdog to Lee Zeldin.
The vote fell largely along party lines. Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins joined Democrats in opposing the nomination, and Senator Mitch McConnell was absent. Senator Bill Cassidy announced on Friday, August 7, that he would cast the deciding vote for Blanche, citing assurances from his meetings with the nominee.
Kalshi settled the market shortly after 8 p.m. ET on August 8: the Todd Blanche contract resolved Yes, and all 22 other names, including the "No one" contract, resolved No. Polymarket's own "Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?" event, which listed only on July 31, also resolved to Blanche on August 8. The Kalshi event cleared about 11.8M contracts. The Polymarket event traded about $13K.
Blanche went from caretaker to nominee to attorney general in four steps.
The board flipped once, in late April, and never flipped back. Prices below are Kalshi daily closes, Eastern time.
| Date | Todd Blanche | Lee Zeldin |
| April 2 (Bondi out) | 25% | 59% |
| April 26 | 62% | 22% |
| May 10 (90 days out) | 47% | 31% |
| June 3 (Rose Garden signal) | 69% | 8% |
| July 9 (30 days out) | 78% | 5% |
| August 1 (7 days out) | 63% | 8% |
| August 7 (day before) | 98% | 2% |
Zeldin opened as the favorite on the strength of the reporting around Bondi's exit. Blanche edged ahead on April 23 and led at every daily close after that, though the lead narrowed in May before the nomination signal in early June pushed Blanche toward 70% and Zeldin into single digits. Ron DeSantis, Jeanine Pirro and the rest of the long tail rarely held above 10%.
The real scare came at the end. Blanche slid from 85% in late July to 63% on August 1 while holdout senators pressed on the fund, then jumped to 92% on August 2, the day of his written rescission. On August 7 he traded as low as 79% after Murkowski's announcement before Cassidy's commitment sent him to 98%.
Did the market get it right? From late April on, yes. The early Zeldin price was a bet on reporting that never turned into a nomination, and the late-July dip correctly flagged a vote that ended up one senator from failing.
Blanche's confirmation does not close the cabinet-turnover story. The Trump administration departures in 2026 market tracks which officials leave next, and the Supreme Court resignation market covers the next confirmation fight the Senate could face.
The 50-49 margin also makes Senate control the variable for any future nominee. Collins, one of the two Republican no votes, is on the ballot in the 2026 Maine Senate race, and the Senate control market prices the chamber that will confirm the next one. Every live politics board is on the politics markets hub.
This market resolved to the first new person to become U.S. Attorney General before January 20, 2029, counting only a nominee confirmed by the Senate or a recess appointee; acting and interim holders of the office did not qualify, which is why Blanche's service as acting attorney general from April 2, 2026 did not settle it. Each named contract paid $1 if that person took the office, and a "No one" contract covered no new attorney general by the deadline. Polymarket's matching event used the same test (formal appointment through Senate confirmation or a recess appointment, acting holders excluded) with a January 19, 2029 deadline, citing the White House, the Senate or a consensus of credible reporting. Both venues settled on August 8, 2026 after the Senate's 50-49 confirmation vote: Kalshi resolved Todd Blanche Yes at about 8:18 p.m. ET with every other contract No, and Polymarket resolved its Blanche market Yes.
Todd Blanche. The Senate confirmed him 50-49 on August 8, 2026, after he had served as acting attorney general since Trump removed Pam Bondi on April 2.
It resolved on August 8, 2026, after the Senate confirmation vote. Kalshi settled the Todd Blanche contract Yes and every other name No, and Polymarket's next-AG event resolved to Blanche the same day.
Blanche closed August 7, the day before the vote, at 98% on Kalshi. A week earlier, on August 1, he was at 63% while holdout senators pressed him on the Anti-Weaponization Fund.
Trump's June 8 nomination of Blanche, then his August 2 rescission of the proposed $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund, which helped win over holdouts. Senator Bill Cassidy cast the deciding vote in a 50-49 confirmation.
Democrats were joined by Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins in the 49 no votes, and Mitch McConnell was absent. Collins is on the 2026 ballot in Maine, which keeps Senate control central to any future nominee.