The Bitcoin vs Gold 2026 market asks whether bitcoin finishes calendar 2026 with a better percentage return than gold. With eight weeks left both assets are down for the year, by roughly 8% for bitcoin and 7% for gold as of November 4, so the race is close and bitcoin is slightly behind. Kalshi and Polymarket both list it, settling on different price sources after December 31, 2026. The live board above carries the current price.
Updated November 4, 2026.
The Bitcoin vs Gold 2026 market is a race between two losers. Both assets are down for the year with eight weeks left, and the question is only which one finishes the calendar year with the smaller loss, or the bigger gain if either recovers. As of November 4, bitcoin was trailing by a small margin, and the board prices gold as the more likely winner, with Yes on bitcoin at 41% on Kalshi and 38% on Polymarket. The live board above carries the current price.
The score is a percentage change from the first measurement of 2026 to the last. On CoinGecko data, bitcoin started the year at about $87,600 and traded near $80,400 on November 4, a loss of roughly 8%. Gold futures closed 2025 at about $4,341 an ounce and traded near $4,047 on November 4, down roughly 7%. A tokenized-gold cross-check on CoinGecko shows the same picture, also down about 7% on the year. Neither series is the official settlement source on either venue, so treat these as close approximations, but they agree that bitcoin is about one to two percentage points behind.
That gap is small next to how far both assets have traveled. Bitcoin rallied to about $96,900 in mid-January, then fell to about $58,600 on July 1, a drop of roughly a third from where it started the year. Gold futures peaked above $5,300 in late January and have slid since, touching their lowest close of the year near $3,900 on October 30. For most of the year gold was the comfortable leader. The race tightened only because gold gave back its entire 2026 gain and more while bitcoin recovered from its summer low.
The board's tracked Yes price closed at 50% on October 5, when bitcoin was close to flat for the year and ahead of gold on the year-to-date comparison. It fell to a 38% close on October 22, bounced to 48% the next day, and has spent most of the stretch since in the low-to-mid 40s, closing at 43% on November 3. On the CoinGecko and futures data, the year-to-date lead changed hands in the last week of October and bitcoin has trailed since.
A price around 40% on a race this close says traders expect the gap to persist more often than not, but it is far from a settled outcome. On CoinGecko's daily data, bitcoin's price moved more than 4% in a single day twice in the past week, on October 30 and November 4, each a swing larger than the entire gap it needs to close.
Both venues list the question and the board pairs them as one market. Kalshi has traded about 320K contracts and Polymarket about $482K, so this is a thin board next to the main bitcoin price ladders. As of November 4 the venues sat about three points apart, 41% on Kalshi against 38% on Polymarket.
The two contracts do not measure the race the same way, which is worth knowing before treating that spread as an arbitrage. Kalshi scores bitcoin with a 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index and gold with ICE's Loco London spot price, and resolves No if the two performances are exactly equal. Polymarket uses TradingView's 2026 yearly candles for BTC/USDT on Binance and XAU/USD from OANDA, and resolves 50-50 on an exact tie. In a race this tight, different price sources can produce different answers.
Both contracts measure the full 2026 calendar year and settle after it closes. Kalshi's market stops trading at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2026, and is expected to settle on January 1, 2027, with a latest expiration of January 8, 2027. Polymarket's market ends January 1, 2027, and resolves once both yearly candles are finalized. Yes requires bitcoin's percentage change for 2026 to be strictly higher than gold's.
The Bitcoin price 2027 range market prices where bitcoin finishes the year in $5,000 bands, the most direct companion to this board, and the Bitcoin year-end price analysis breaks that ladder down. The Bitcoin 2026 low ladder and Bitcoin 2026 high odds cover the year's extremes, and the Bitcoin $100K by 2027 market prices the upside case. For the rates backdrop, the Fed rate hike 2026 market tracks the December decision. More boards sit on the crypto hub.
Resolves Yes if bitcoin's percentage change over calendar 2026 is greater than gold's, and No otherwise. On Kalshi, bitcoin performance is measured with a 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index and gold with the ICE Loco London spot price, from the start of the period to the last available price at its end; percentages are rounded to four decimal places and an exact tie resolves No. Kalshi trading closes at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2026, with expected settlement on January 1, 2027 and a latest expiration of January 8, 2027. On Polymarket, the comparison uses the 12-month change shown on TradingView for the yearly candle dated January 1, 2026 on BTC/USDT from Binance and XAU/USD from OANDA, once both candles are finalized, and an exact tie resolves 50-50. Backup sources apply on Kalshi if primary data is unavailable. Each winning share pays 1 dollar.
As of November 4, 2026, Yes on bitcoin outperforming gold traded at 41% on Kalshi and 38% on Polymarket, so the market favors gold. The live board above carries the current price.
Not as of November 4, 2026. On CoinGecko and gold futures data, bitcoin was down roughly 8% for the year and gold roughly 7%, leaving bitcoin one to two percentage points behind.
It measures all of calendar 2026 and settles after December 31, 2026. Kalshi expects to settle on January 1, 2027, with a latest expiration of January 8, and Polymarket resolves once both 2026 yearly candles on TradingView are finalized.
No. Kalshi uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index and ICE Loco London spot gold, with a tie resolving No, while Polymarket uses TradingView candles for Binance BTC/USDT and OANDA XAU/USD, with a tie resolving 50-50.
Watch the size of the year-to-date gap against bitcoin's daily swings, which topped 4% twice in the week to November 4, and any rebound in gold. The December 8-9 Fed meeting is the last scheduled rate decision before the December 31 measurement.