| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Stampeders | +3.5 49% | O 61.5 52% | 35%35% | 35% Kalshi |
â–¶Alouettes | -3.5 51% | U 61.5 48% | 65%66% | 66% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
â–¶Calgary Stampeders | +3.5 | O 61.5 | 35% Kalshi | |
â–¶Montreal Alouettes | -3.5 | U 61.5 | 66% Polymarket |
No player props available for this game.
The Montreal Alouettes (3-1) are the 65c moneyline favorite over the Calgary Stampeders (2-2) for Saturday's Week 6 matchup at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, an implied 65% chance of a home win. Calgary sits at 34.5c despite dropping 58 points on Toronto last week, so the market is siding with Montreal's East-leading form off a bye. Kalshi (64c) and Polymarket (66c) agree within 2c, and the live board above carries the current cross-platform prices.
The Montreal Alouettes open as the 65c home favorite over the Calgary Stampeders, a price that has held flat across the trading window as roughly $1,900 in cross-platform volume built up. Montreal is 3-1 and leads the East Division, Calgary is 2-2 and sits fourth in the West, and the two clubs meet Saturday at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium for the first leg of a home-and-home series.
Montreal prices at 65c on the moneyline (64c Kalshi, 66c Polymarket), an implied 65% chance of holding serve at home. Calgary trades at 34.5c (35c Kalshi, 34c Polymarket). The cross-platform gap is only 2c on the Alouettes, so there is no meaningful arbitrage here, just a firmly established line that has not moved off 64c on Kalshi through the session.
The read is that the market trusts Montreal's home-field edge off a Week 5 bye over Calgary's recent scoring explosion. The Stampeders raised the Stampede Bowl trophy last week behind Vernon Adams Jr., who completed 80% of his passes for 405 yards with six passing touchdowns and one rushing score in a 22-point win over the Toronto Argonauts. Calgary is chasing a third straight win, yet the road price of 34.5c says the books are not fully buying the offensive breakout against a 3-1 opponent that outlasted Ottawa 37-35 before its bye.
The spread board has Montreal favored by 3.5 points, matching the sportsbook line, and that number is priced as a coin flip: Montreal to win by more than 3.5 sits at 50c on Kalshi. That is consistent with a 65c moneyline favorite, a team expected to win but not to run away. The rest of the spread ladder is thinly traded and carries stale quotes, so the 3.5-point key number is the one to watch.
The total is set around 61.5 points, with Over 61.5 trading at 53c after opening near 60c earlier in the session. The Montreal forecast of 25C, clear skies, and light 5-15 kph winds favors both passing attacks, which is why the total sits high and the over held near a coin flip. If either offense hits its ceiling, the game clears 61.5 comfortably.
The market resolves Saturday, July 11, 2026, on the outcome of the game at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, with kickoff at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. The moneyline pays out on the team that wins the game, the spread settles on the final margin, and the total settles on combined points scored. Kalshi and Polymarket finalize once the CFL declares the result official.
Calgary offense: Vernon Adams Jr. is coming off 405 yards and six passing touchdowns in a 58-point Week 5 outburst, the engine behind Calgary's 34.5c road price.
Montreal at home: The Alouettes (3-1) return from a Week 5 bye leading the East, the basis for the 65c home favorite.
Cross-platform consensus: Montreal reads 64c on Kalshi and 66c on Polymarket, a 2c gap that signals an agreed-upon line, not a value gap.
The 3.5-point number: Montreal to win by more than 3.5 points prices as a 50c coin flip, mirroring the sportsbook spread.
The total and weather: Over 61.5 points sits at 53c after drifting from 60c, with a clear, low-wind forecast favoring the passing games.
Availability: Calgary is without DB Jaydon Grant, while Montreal is missing WR Cole Spieker and RBs Stevie Scott III and Shomari Lawrence, thinning the depth on both sides.
Both clubs carry longer-term stakes in the Grey Cup 2026 market, where Montreal's East lead and Calgary's West position both factor into the title price. Follow each side on the Montreal Alouettes hub and the Calgary Stampeders hub, or track the full slate on the CFL league page. Calgary's earlier meeting with Toronto is captured on the Argonauts vs Stampeders board.
Resolves Saturday, July 11, 2026, on the result of the Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes game at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, kickoff 7:00 p.m. Eastern. The moneyline pays $1 per share to the team that wins the game and $0 to the loser. The spread settles on the final scoring margin (Montreal favored by 3.5 points) and the total settles on combined points scored (set around 61.5), including any overtime, per each platform's rules. Kalshi and Polymarket finalize the contracts once the CFL declares the game official. If the game is postponed past the resolution window or cancelled, contracts resolve per platform-specific void rules.
As of July 11, 2026, the Montreal Alouettes are the 65c moneyline favorite (64c on Kalshi, 66c on Polymarket) and the Calgary Stampeders trade at 34.5c (35c Kalshi, 34c Polymarket). The live board above shows the current cross-platform prices.
The game trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Montreal's moneyline is 64c on Kalshi and 66c on Polymarket, and Prediction Genius shows both books side by side with the simple average.
Montreal is favored at 65c, an implied 65% chance of winning at home, versus Calgary at 34.5c (roughly 35%). The spread has Montreal by 3.5 points, priced as a 50c coin flip.
It resolves on the game's result Saturday, July 11, 2026 at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, with kickoff at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Kalshi and Polymarket settle once the CFL declares the result official.
Over 61.5 points sits at 53c after opening near 60c, with a clear, low-wind Montreal forecast favoring the passing attacks. Watch whether Calgary's 58-point Week 5 offense can push the total over and cover the 3.5-point spread on the road.