Ronald Humphrey vs Alexis Miranda Prediction Market Odds, August 25, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Humphrey | — | — | 88% | 88% Polymarket |
▶Miranda | — | — | 13% | 13% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Ronald Humphrey | — | — | 88% Polymarket | |
▶Alexis Miranda | — | — | 13% Polymarket |
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Ronald Humphrey is the heavy side of this Dana White's Contender Series welterweight bout, and the records explain why the market leans that far: Humphrey is 4-0 with all four wins by TKO, while Alexis Miranda carries a deeper but more mixed 9-2 ledger. Only Polymarket has posted a book on the fight, so there is no second exchange to check the number against. As of the evening of August 24, 2026 the board had Humphrey at 88c. Current prices are on the live board above. The card is scheduled for Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Dana White's Contender Series runs a five-bout card on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, and the welterweight matchup between Ronald Humphrey and Alexis Miranda is the one where the market and the resume point in opposite directions. Humphrey has the shorter record at 4-0. Miranda has fought nearly three times as often and stands 9-2. The board sides with the unbeaten fighter by a wide margin anyway. Neither man is on the UFC roster: the Contender Series is the developmental show where a winning performance that impresses Dana White typically earns a UFC contract, and that contract, not a ranking, is the real stake here.
Humphrey vs Miranda Market Context
This is a one-book market. Polymarket is the only exchange carrying the bout, so the price you see is a single order book with no Kalshi quote to cross-check, and the usual cross-platform read is unavailable on this fight. Lifetime volume on the moneyline pair is roughly $720, which is thin enough that a single sized order can reprice the favorite by several cents. Treat the quote as a small-book consensus rather than a deep market read.
On the night before the fight the price was static. Our board captured 15 snapshots between roughly 8:22 PM and 10:33 PM ET on August 24, 2026, and the favorite held at 88c across every one of them while Polymarket's 24-hour volume climbed from about $575 to about $658. That is money arriving without the number moving, which is what agreement looks like in a small book. The series does not reach back further than that window, so this page makes no claim about where the line opened.
The rest of the board is listed but not live. Polymarket has posted round totals at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 rounds plus a set of method markets covering knockout or technical knockout for either fighter, submission, and whether the fight goes the distance. Every one of those markets shows zero volume and no priced book. They are worth watching precisely because Humphrey's profile is a method story, but there is nothing to trade off yet.
What the Humphrey vs Miranda Records Show
Humphrey, 25 and fighting out of the United States, is 4-0 with four TKOs and zero decisions, per ESPN's record data. A 100% finish rate over four fights is the cleanest explanation for an 88c line on a fighter with this little tape. He last fought on March 13, 2026, beating Liam Hamill at CFFC 151, and before that beat Dupree Stewart at LFA 219 on October 10, 2025. He is listed at 5 feet 11 inches with a 77-inch reach, orthodox.
Miranda, 27 and fighting out of Mexico, is 9-2 with four TKOs and one submission among his nine wins, which means four of them went to the scorecards. The more useful number is on the other side of his ledger: ESPN credits him with zero losses by knockout, technical knockout, or submission, so both defeats came by decision. He last fought on March 22, 2026, headlining UWC Mexico 57 with a win over Ricardo Chavez, and his most recent loss was to Anuar Aburto at Lux Fight League 52 on May 16, 2025. At 6 feet 2 inches he gives up nothing in size, though his 76.5-inch reach is a half inch short of Humphrey's.
That sets the shape of the fight cleanly. Humphrey has never been past the first stoppage and has never needed the judges. Miranda has never been stopped and has repeatedly needed them. The 88c price is a bet that Humphrey's finishing rate survives contact with the first genuinely durable opponent on his record, and the value case for the other side rests entirely on Miranda's stoppage-proof history and the fact that a 4-0 sample is small.
When the Humphrey vs Miranda Market Resolves
The bout is scheduled for three five-minute rounds at welterweight on the Contender Series card of Tuesday, August 25, 2026, with ESPN listing a 7:00 PM ET start for the show. The moneyline settles on the official result announced in the cage, whether that comes by knockout, technical knockout, submission, or a judges' decision. Round-total markets settle on the round in which the bout ends and method markets settle on the official method of victory. Because Polymarket is the only venue carrying the fight, its published rules for the event govern draws, no contests, and any cancellation or postponement.
Key Humphrey vs Miranda Catalysts
- Finishing rate versus durability: Humphrey is 4-0 with four TKOs, Miranda is 9-2 with no losses by stoppage, and that collision is the entire pricing question.
- Single-book pricing: Polymarket is the only exchange quoting this bout, so the 88c favorite carries no cross-platform confirmation.
- Thin liquidity: roughly $720 in lifetime moneyline volume means one order can move the quote several cents in either direction.
- Dormant method markets: round totals at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 and the KO, submission, and distance props are all listed at zero volume, and any of them going live would be the sharpest signal on the card.
- The contract itself: a Contender Series winner who impresses Dana White is signed to the UFC, which is why performance, not just the result, drives how these fighters take risk.
Related Humphrey vs Miranda Markets
The rest of the August 25 card trades on the same platform, and the money is not evenly spread. Gary Balletto vs Sean Clancy Jr is the volume leader at roughly $21.8K, with the undefeated Clancy (8-0) opposite Balletto (11-3). Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca is second at roughly $7.5K and pairs a 4-0 prospect against a 3-1 opponent. Carlos Petruzzella vs Nick Galanti carries about $2.5K on a 15-1 record against a 7-1, and Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel is the thinnest board of the five at under $800. For the wider slate of MMA fight-card boards across both exchanges, the UFC and MMA market hub is the place to start.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter who wins the welterweight bout between Ronald Humphrey and Alexis Miranda on the Dana White's Contender Series card scheduled for Tuesday, August 25, 2026. The contest is scheduled for three five-minute rounds and the moneyline settles on the official result announced in the cage, including wins by knockout, technical knockout, submission, or judges' decision. Round-total markets settle on the round in which the fight ends and method markets settle on the official method of victory. Polymarket is the only exchange carrying this bout, so its published rules for the event govern draws, no contests, and any cancellation or postponement past the scheduled date. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and losing contracts resolve to $0.
Key Factors
- Humphrey is 4-0 with all four wins by TKO and no fight on his record that reached the scorecards
- Miranda is 9-2 with both losses by decision and no losses by knockout, technical knockout, or submission
- Single-book pricing: Polymarket is the only exchange quoting the bout, so the 88c favorite has no cross-platform confirmation
- Thin liquidity at roughly $720 lifetime moneyline volume, small enough for one order to move the quote
- Round totals at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 rounds plus the KO, submission, and distance props are listed at zero volume
- A Contender Series win that impresses Dana White earns a UFC contract, which shapes how both fighters take risk
What are the current Humphrey vs Miranda odds?
As of the evening of August 24, 2026, Polymarket had Ronald Humphrey at 88c and Alexis Miranda at 13c on the moneyline. Polymarket is the only exchange quoting this bout, and the live board above carries the current price.
Is this a UFC fight?
No. Ronald Humphrey and Alexis Miranda meet on Dana White's Contender Series, the developmental show where fighters compete for a UFC contract. Neither fighter is on the UFC roster, and a win that impresses Dana White is what typically earns a deal.
Where can I trade the Humphrey vs Miranda market?
Polymarket is the only platform carrying this welterweight bout, covering the moneyline plus round totals at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 rounds and method-of-victory props. Kalshi has not posted a book on the fight.
Who is favored in Humphrey vs Miranda and why?
Ronald Humphrey is the favorite at 88c on August 24, 2026. He is 4-0 with four TKOs and has never been to the judges, while Alexis Miranda is 9-2 with four of his nine wins by decision, though Miranda has never been stopped.
When does the Humphrey vs Miranda market resolve?
The bout is scheduled for three five-minute rounds on the Contender Series card of Tuesday, August 25, 2026, with ESPN listing a 7:00 PM ET start. The market settles once the official result is announced.
What should I watch before this fight resolves?
Watch whether the method markets get a priced book. The round totals and KO props sat at zero volume on August 24, 2026, and Humphrey's four-for-four TKO rate makes them the sharpest tell on the card if money arrives there before Tuesday night.