Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel Prediction Market Odds, August 25, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Piazzon | — | O 0.5 17% | 38% | 38% Polymarket |
▶Uriel | — | U 0.5 83% | 63% | 63% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Mario Piazzon | — | O 0.5 | 38% Polymarket | |
▶Guilherme Uriel | — | U 0.5 | 63% Polymarket |
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Guilherme Uriel is the 63c favorite over Mario Piazzon at 38c on Polymarket for this Contender Series heavyweight bout, a price that fades Piazzon's 12-1 record in favor of Uriel's 7-2 mark and his stronger LFA opposition. Uriel has finished all seven of his wins and has never been to a decision in nine fights; Piazzon owns three decision wins and one career loss. Kalshi does not list the fight, so the board is one-book with under $800 of lifetime volume. A win here typically earns a UFC contract from Dana White.
Guilherme Uriel is the 63c favorite on Polymarket against Mario Piazzon at 38c, and the win column says that read is backwards. Piazzon carries a 12-1 record into this heavyweight bout, Uriel a 7-2, and the board still prices the fighter with five more career wins as the underdog. This is Dana White's Contender Series, Season 10 Week 3, staged at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Neither man is on the UFC roster and neither is defending anything. The Contender Series is the developmental show where a win that impresses Dana White typically earns a UFC contract on the night, and that contract is the entire stake here.
Piazzon vs Uriel Market Context
Piazzon, a 28-year-old Brazilian out of Galpao Da Luta who fights as "The Shark", is 12-1 with eight wins by knockout or technical knockout and one by submission, per ESPN's fighter records. That leaves three decision wins in twelve, including his most recent: a full three-round win over Andre Vieira at Shooto Brazil 135 in March 2026, his second win over Vieira after a second-round finish at Centurion FC 21 in July 2024. His only professional loss came by knockout at 2:25 of round one against Alex Junius at Thunder Fight 47 in March 2025. He answered it that September with a second-round finish of Fernando Batista at Thunder Fight 51. He is listed at 238 lbs, 5-foot-9, with a 73-inch reach and an orthodox stance.
Uriel, 29, out of Evolution Combat MMA and nicknamed "Urso", is 7-2 with four knockout or technical knockout wins and three submissions. The detail that matters: he has no decisions at all on a nine-fight ledger. Every one of his seven wins is a finish and both of his losses came by knockout or technical knockout. His last three wins ended in round one, at 0:29, 1:27 and 1:36, the most recent over Leonardo Fraga at LFA 229 in March 2026. He is the taller man at 6-foot-1 and 241 lbs with a 74-inch reach.
The reason the market has Uriel at 63c despite the thinner record is his resume, not his ledger. Uriel's last three fights came under the LFA banner, a recognized UFC feeder promotion, and he has already been here once: he took a Contender Series booking in August 2025 and lost to Josh Hokit at 1:06 of round two. Piazzon's twelve wins were built on the Brazilian regional circuit at Thunder Fight, Shooto Brazil and Centurion FC. The board is paying for opposition quality and for a fighter who has already felt the Apex lights, and it is discounting a 12-1 record earned a tier below. That is a defensible read, and it is also the reason 38c is the interesting number on this board rather than the obvious one.
The one structural edge Piazzon holds is the scorecards. He has three decision wins and has proven he can carry a three-round pace at heavyweight, most recently in March. Uriel has never seen a judge's scorecard as a professional. In a three-round bout with no championship rounds, every minute past the halfway mark moves toward the man who has done it and away from the man who has not.
This board is one-book. Kalshi does not list the bout, which is normal for Contender Series cards, so every price on the page comes from Polymarket alone and there is no cross-platform comparison to make. Lifetime volume across the whole board is under $800, with roughly $767 of it on the moneyline, so this is a thin market that a single sized order can move. The snapshot series the board carries runs only about two hours: Uriel sits at 63c on the latest capture against 64c on the first, which is drift inside the spread rather than a move worth reading. Anyone wanting a line-movement story on this fight should check the live board above closer to the card, and the rest of the night's slate sits on today's board.
Piazzon vs Uriel Round Totals and Method Props
Polymarket lists a full prop set on this bout and almost none of it trades. Three round totals are posted (over/under 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 rounds). The 1.5 and 2.5 lines carry zero lifetime volume and no price at all. The 0.5-round line has taken about $18 in lifetime volume and the API is reading it off a last trade rather than a live two-sided book, which is why it should not be treated as a fair price.
Five method-of-victory props are also listed: a knockout or technical knockout for Uriel, a knockout or technical knockout for Piazzon, a knockout or technical knockout by either man, a submission by either man, and the fight going the distance. All five carry zero lifetime volume and no posted price. That is worth stating plainly rather than quoting a number that does not exist, because the fighters' histories argue these props should be priced: ten of Piazzon's thirteen professional fights ended inside the distance and all nine of Uriel's did.
When the Piazzon vs Uriel Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the fighter whose hand is raised when the bout ends on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. It is scheduled for three rounds, with the card listed at 7:00 PM ET on Paramount+ per ESPN's fight center. Bout order sets the actual walkout, so the fight itself starts sometime after the card opens. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and losing contracts pay $0. The round-total lines settle on the round in which the fight ends, and the method props settle on the official result. A draw, a no contest, a cancellation or a postponement is handled under Polymarket's published rules for the event, so read those before sizing a position on the props rather than the moneyline.
Key Piazzon vs Uriel Catalysts
- Opposition tier: Uriel's last three fights were LFA bookings against a higher grade of opponent than Piazzon's Thunder Fight and Shooto Brazil run, and that gap is most of the 63c price.
- Finishing rate: all seven of Uriel's wins are finishes and his last three ended in round one, at 0:29, 1:27 and 1:36.
- Decision experience: Piazzon owns three decision wins including a full three-round result in March 2026; Uriel has never been to the cards in nine professional fights.
- Contender Series repeat: Uriel lost his first Contender Series booking to Josh Hokit at 1:06 of round two in August 2025, so he arrives with both the experience and the correction to make.
- Size: Uriel gives up nothing and gains four inches of height and an inch of reach at 6-foot-1 and 241 lbs against 5-foot-9 and 238 lbs.
- Book depth: under $800 of lifetime volume on the whole board means the 63c line is a thin quote, not a consensus, and it can move on one order.
Related Piazzon vs Uriel and Contender Series Markets
The Contender Series feeds the UFC roster, so the boards worth reading next to this one are the ones the winners eventually land on. The UFC 329 heavyweight prelim between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison is the closest comparison on the site: same division, main-roster pricing, and a book deep enough to show what a two-platform heavyweight line looks like. For a recent single-bout board with the same shape as this one, see Emmers vs Douglas. Futures traders should look at the UFC middleweight championship market, where the ceiling for a Contender Series graduate eventually gets priced. Every live combat-sports and team-sport board sits on the sports prediction market hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter whose hand is raised at the end of the Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel heavyweight bout on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, on Dana White's Contender Series Season 10 Week 3. The bout is scheduled for three rounds and the card is listed at 7:00 PM ET on Paramount+ per ESPN's fight center. Winning contracts pay $1 per share and losing contracts pay $0. The over/under round-total lines settle on the round in which the fight ends, and the method-of-victory props settle on the official result announced in the cage. A draw, a no contest, a cancellation or a postponement past the scheduled date is handled under Polymarket's published rules for the event, which is the only platform listing this bout.
Key Factors
- Opposition tier gap: Uriel's last three fights were LFA bookings, Piazzon's twelve wins came on the Brazilian regional circuit
- Uriel has finished all seven of his wins, with his last three ending in round one at 0:29, 1:27 and 1:36
- Piazzon owns three decision wins including a full three-round result in March 2026; Uriel has no decisions in nine fights
- Uriel is a Contender Series repeat, having lost to Josh Hokit at 1:06 of round two in August 2025
- Size edge to Uriel at 6-foot-1 and 241 lbs with a 74-inch reach against 5-foot-9 and 238 lbs
- Under $800 of lifetime volume across the board makes the 63c line a thin quote that one order can move
What are the current Piazzon vs Uriel odds?
As of August 24, 2026, Guilherme Uriel is the 63c favorite on Polymarket and Mario Piazzon is 38c. Kalshi does not list this bout, so Polymarket is the only source of a price. Check the live board on this page for the current number.
Where can I trade the Piazzon vs Uriel market?
Polymarket only. It lists the moneyline plus three round totals (over/under 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 rounds) and five method-of-victory props, though every prop except the 0.5-round line carries zero lifetime volume.
Who is favored in Piazzon vs Uriel and by how much?
Uriel at 63c, an implied 63% chance, against Piazzon at 38c. The market is pricing Uriel's LFA-level opposition and his 100% finish rate over Piazzon's 12-1 record, which was built on the Brazilian regional circuit.
Is Piazzon vs Uriel a UFC fight?
No. It is on Dana White's Contender Series, Season 10 Week 3, the developmental show where fighters compete for a UFC contract. Neither Piazzon nor Uriel is on the UFC roster. Uriel appeared on the Contender Series once before, losing to Josh Hokit in August 2025.
When does the Piazzon vs Uriel market resolve?
On the night of Tuesday, August 25, 2026, once the three-round heavyweight bout ends at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The card is listed at 7:00 PM ET on Paramount+ per ESPN. Watch whether the fight reaches round three, since Uriel has never been to a decision and Piazzon has won three.