Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Prediction Market Odds, August 25, 2026
| Spread | Total | ML | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Mir | — | — | 95% | 95% Polymarket |
▶Apodaca | — | — | 6% | 6% Polymarket |
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | Best ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
▶Bella Mir | — | — | 95% Polymarket | |
▶Alex Apodaca | — | — | 6% Polymarket |
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Bella Mir is a 95c favorite on Polymarket over Alex Apodaca at 5c, the widest price on the five-bout Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 3 card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on August 25, 2026. ESPN has Mir 4-0 at 23 years old and Apodaca 3-1 at 32 with a 4.5 inch reach advantage. Kalshi lists no market on the fight, so the board runs one book on roughly $7.6K of lifetime volume. The live board above carries the current prices.
The Women's Bantamweight bout between Bella Mir and Alex Apodaca is one of five fights on the Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 3 card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on August 25, 2026. ESPN lists it at three rounds of five minutes, with Mir 4-0 and Apodaca 3-1. This is not a UFC event and neither woman is on the UFC roster. The Contender Series is the developmental show where fighters compete in front of Dana White for a UFC contract, and that contract, not a ranking or a purse, is the real stake here. Polymarket prices Mir at 95c and Apodaca at 5c, the widest gap on the card.
Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Market Context
The board runs on one book. Polymarket carries the moneyline and Kalshi has no market on this fight, so there is no cross-platform price to compare and no second opinion on the 95c number. Lifetime volume on the moneyline is roughly $7.6K, which is a thin book by any standard. A 95c line on $7.6K reflects a small number of participants agreeing, not a deep liquid consensus, and a single sized order can move a market that size several cents.
The snapshot series the board carries is short. Fifteen captures span roughly two hours on the evening of August 24, 2026, and Mir sat at 94c through nearly all of them before ticking to 95c late in the window. That is the only price history on this board, so the honest read is that the line held within the two hours we observed. We have no earlier captures and are not claiming the line has been flat since it opened.
The physical matchup runs against the price. Mir is 23, fights southpaw, stands 5 foot 7 and carries a 67 inch reach. Apodaca is 32, switches stance, also stands 5 foot 7, and carries a 71.5 inch reach. That is a 4.5 inch reach advantage to the 5c underdog and a nine year age gap to the favorite. A market pricing a fighter at 5c when she owns the reach edge is pricing something other than the tale of the tape, most likely the records and the name.
The name is part of this. Wikipedia's entry on Frank Mir, the former UFC heavyweight champion, notes that his daughter Bella is a professional mixed martial artist who won her debut in October 2020 with her father in her corner. Recognition of that kind draws attention and volume to a developmental bout that would otherwise trade in the low hundreds of dollars.
One limit worth stating plainly. Neither ESPN's MMA endpoints nor the public fighter databases reachable for this page carried a fight-by-fight method-of-victory breakdown for either woman. The 4-0 and 3-1 records are ESPN's and are reliable. This page makes no claim about either fighter's finish rate, submission game, or striking output, because no source we could reach supports one.
What the Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Winner Earns
Wikipedia's overview of the Contender Series describes it as Dana White's talent-scouting platform, moved from UFC Fight Pass to ESPN+, where winners earn UFC contracts and roughly one to five contracts are awarded per episode depending on how the performances land. Season 10 runs August 11 through October 13, 2026 out of the UFC Apex, with about 10 contracts expected across the season.
That structure changes how the fight should be read. A win is necessary but not sufficient. A grinding decision on a Contender Series card regularly leaves a fighter without a deal, while a finish is the product Dana White is buying. For a 4-0 prospect at 95c, the market is pricing the win, not the contract, and those are two different questions.
Polymarket has listed the derivative markets around that method question and none of them have traded. The round totals (over/under 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 rounds) and five method legs, whether the fight goes the distance, whether Mir wins by KO or TKO, whether Apodaca wins by KO or TKO, whether the fight is won by submission, and whether the fight is won by KO or TKO, all carry no price and $0 of volume as of August 24, 2026. They are listed but untraded, so there is no market read on how this ends. Anyone with a view on the method has an empty book to trade into rather than a price to disagree with.
When the Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Market Resolves
The moneyline resolves to the fighter who wins the bout on August 25, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Each contract pays $1 per share for the winner and $0 for the loser, settled on the official result announced in the cage and recorded by the promotion. The round totals settle on how far the fight goes and the method legs settle on the official method of victory. If the bout is scrapped at weigh-ins, ruled a no-contest, or scored a draw, Polymarket's own event rules govern the outcome rather than the moneyline, so read the platform's resolution text on the event page before sizing a position.
Key Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Catalysts
Single-book pricing: Kalshi lists no market on this fight, so the 95c on Mir has no cross-platform check against it.
Thin liquidity: roughly $7.6K of lifetime volume on the moneyline means a single sized order moves the line, and the 94c to 95c tick observed overnight came on a few thousand dollars of turnover.
Reach against the price: Apodaca's 71.5 inch reach is 4.5 inches longer than Mir's 67, an edge that sits oddly next to a 5c price.
Experience against youth: Apodaca is 32 with a 3-1 record, Mir is 23 and unbeaten at 4-0, and neither has the deep public tape that would settle the question.
The contract, not the win: a decision victory on the Contender Series often does not produce a UFC deal, which is why the untraded method legs matter more here than on a standard fight board.
Related Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca Markets
Traders following the UFC roster that Contender Series winners are trying to reach can compare this developmental board against the divisional futures, where the UFC welterweight title market and the UFC middleweight title market price the fighters who already made it. The next UFC pound-for-pound No. 1 market is the sport's status board and the endpoint of the path that starts on cards like this one. For a recent single-bout comparison with a live two-sided read, the Emmers vs Douglas board shows how a fight market trades once both platforms carry it. The full cross-platform slate sits on the sports markets hub.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves to the fighter who wins the Women's Bantamweight bout between Bella Mir and Alex Apodaca on the Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 3 card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on August 25, 2026. The fight is scheduled for three rounds of five minutes. Each moneyline contract pays $1 per share if that fighter wins and $0 otherwise, settled on the official result announced in the cage and recorded by the promotion. The listed round totals settle on how far the bout goes and the method legs settle on the official method of victory. If the bout is canceled, postponed off the card, ruled a no-contest, or scored a draw, Polymarket's own event rules govern the outcome, so check the platform's resolution text on the event page before trading.
Key Factors
- Single-book pricing: Kalshi lists no market, so Polymarket 95c on Mir has no cross-platform check
- Thin liquidity: roughly $7.6K lifetime moneyline volume means one sized order moves the line
- Reach against the price: Apodaca's 71.5 inch reach is 4.5 inches longer than Mir's 67 (ESPN)
- Experience against youth: Apodaca 32 and 3-1 versus Mir 23 and unbeaten at 4-0 (ESPN)
- Method legs untraded: all round totals and KO/TKO/submission props carry no price and $0 volume
- The contract, not the win: a Contender Series decision often does not produce a UFC deal
What are the current Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca odds?
As of the evening of August 24, 2026, Polymarket prices Bella Mir at 95c and Alex Apodaca at 5c, a 95% implied probability for Mir. Kalshi lists no market on this fight, so Polymarket is the only book. Check the live board above for the current number.
Is Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca a UFC fight?
No. It is a Women's Bantamweight bout on Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 3, the developmental show where fighters compete for a UFC contract. Neither Mir nor Apodaca is on the UFC roster, and the card is not a numbered UFC event or a Fight Night.
Where can I trade the Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca market?
Polymarket carries the moneyline plus round totals and method-of-victory legs on the same event. Kalshi has no market on this bout. Lifetime volume on the Polymarket moneyline is roughly $7.6K, which is thin enough that a single sized order moves the price.
What are the two fighters records?
ESPN lists Bella Mir at 4-0 and Alex Apodaca at 3-1. Mir is 23, fights southpaw, and carries a 67 inch reach. Apodaca is 32, switches stance, and carries a 71.5 inch reach. No source reachable for this page carried a fight-by-fight method breakdown for either woman.
When does the Bella Mir vs Alex Apodaca market resolve?
It resolves on the result of the bout on August 25, 2026 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, scheduled for three rounds of five minutes. Contender Series Season 10 runs through October 13, 2026, so a win here feeds the contract decisions Dana White makes across the rest of the season.