The 2026 AL Cy Young market trades across roughly $3.7M in cumulative cross-platform volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, with 43 pitcher contracts on the board and the race down to two arms with six weeks left in the regular season. The live board above ranks current cross-platform prices on every contender. The award resolves on the BBWAA announcement dated November 12, 2026, covering regular-season performance only.
The 2026 AL Cy Young market has narrowed to a two-name race with six weeks left in the regular season, and the board now carries roughly $3.7M in cumulative cross-platform volume across 43 named pitcher contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket. Cam Schlittler leads the American League with a 2.19 ERA over 152.0 innings, Dylan Cease leads it with 201 strikeouts, and between them they hold nearly all of the probability on the board. Everyone else sits in the penny tier. The live board above ranks every contender by current cross-platform price; this page covers the durable shape of the race, what moves it, and how it resolves on the November 12, 2026 announcement.
The AL Cy Young is a season-long award, so the market is a bet on which starter assembles the most complete body of work across roughly 32 starts. That structure rewards innings volume, strikeout dominance, and run prevention, and it punishes any pitcher who loses a month to the injured list. The board reflects that math precisely: two arms carry real probability and the remaining 41 contracts sit at a cent or less, where a name would need a September takeover plus injuries to both leaders to matter.
Two things reshaped the field over the summer, and neither was a price move. Tarik Skubal, the defending winner, was traded from Detroit to the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 2, 2026, moving him to the National League with two months left and ending his defense on this board despite a 2.79 ERA across 96.2 Tigers innings. And Sonny Gray, in his first season in Boston, pitched his way into third place on the board behind a 15-3 record that leads every American League starter in wins. Those are structural changes to who can win the award, which is exactly the kind of repricing a season-long contract exists to capture.
### Cam Schlittler
Schlittler is the favorite and the story of the 2026 AL Cy Young race. The Yankees right-hander leads the American League in ERA at 2.19, ranks second in innings at 152.0, third in strikeouts at 189, and second in WHIP at 0.94 across 26 starts. That is a full-ballot profile: top three in every category voters anchor to, with 34 walks against those 189 strikeouts as the command number that separates him from the rest of the field. The bearish case is the one every favorite in a season-long award carries. New York sits 69-55 and six games back in the AL East, so his remaining starts come inside a wild card chase rather than a coasting September, and holding the workload is the only real threat to the case.
### Dylan Cease
Cease is the challenger, and he owns the one top-line stat Schlittler does not: 201 strikeouts, most in the American League. He carries a 2.42 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP through 23 starts in Toronto. Two things hold him back. His 59 walks are nearly double Schlittler's total, and the Blue Jays are 61-65 and out of the 2026 AL East winner odds picture, which has held him to a 7-5 record and strips the contender narrative that voters reward. For Cease to overtake the leader, the market is pricing a September where his strikeout margin widens while Schlittler's run prevention slips.
### Sonny Gray and the Chasing Field
Gray is the third name on the board and the wins argument. At 15-3 with a 2.65 ERA over 132.2 innings in his first Red Sox season, he leads the American League in victories by three, and nothing else on his line is close to the top two, with 117 strikeouts sitting well outside the leaderboard. Behind him the board thins to nothing. Drew Rasmussen owns the best WHIP in the league at 0.91 and 12 wins for the first-place Rays but has not thrown the innings a ballot case needs. Parker Messick ranks third in ERA at 2.59 for Cleveland. Jacob deGrom has 147 strikeouts against a 3.95 ERA in Texas. Each is a lottery ticket that needs both leaders to break down.
The market resolves to the pitcher named the 2026 American League Cy Young Award winner by the Baseball Writers' Association of America, and the board carries a November 12, 2026 resolution date. The vote covers regular-season performance only, decided by two BBWAA writers from each American League city casting ranked ballots, so postseason work does not count toward it. If co-winners are announced, the contract resolves to the pitcher whose last name comes first alphabetically, and Kalshi separately lists a Tie/Co-Winners contract on the same board.
The AL Cy Young is one node in a deep MLB awards and futures board. The 2026 NL Cy Young odds race runs on the same season-long logic in the senior circuit, and the 2026 AL MVP odds board overlaps with it whenever a pitcher builds a two-award case. Team outcomes carry the award narratives, so the 2026 AL Pennant odds and New York Yankees playoff odds are the boards to read alongside this one, with the 2026 World Series odds as the top of that tree. Browse the full MLB prediction markets hub for every cross-platform baseball market.
Resolves to the pitcher who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award, as announced by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, with a November 12, 2026 resolution date carried on the board. The award is voted on by two BBWAA writers from each American League city casting ranked ballots covering regular-season performance only, so postseason work does not count. Each pitcher contract pays $1 per share if that pitcher wins; all other contracts resolve to $0. If co-winners are announced, the market resolves to the pitcher whose last name comes first alphabetically, and Kalshi lists a separate Tie/Co-Winners contract. If the season is canceled or no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to Other.
The live board above shows current cross-platform prices for all 43 pitcher contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. The race has narrowed to Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease, who together hold nearly all of the probability, with Sonny Gray third and everyone else in the penny tier.
It resolves on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America announcement of the American League Cy Young winner, with a November 12, 2026 resolution date on the board. The vote covers regular-season performance only.
The award trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with roughly $3.7M in cumulative cross-platform volume. Of the 43 pitcher contracts, 26 carry a price on both venues, and the board above compares them side by side.
As of August 18, 2026, Cam Schlittler is the favorite at 62c, quoted 61c on Kalshi and 63c on Polymarket. The Yankees right-hander leads the American League with a 2.19 ERA over 152.0 innings and ranks third with 189 strikeouts.
Watch Schlittler’s innings and ERA over the final six weeks, whether Cease extends his 201-strikeout lead, and any injury to either name. The AL strikeout and ERA leaderboards through September are what move this market most.