The 2026 NL Cy Young market trades across roughly $4.0M in cumulative volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, with 47 National League arms still holding live contracts. What was a wide-open field in June has consolidated behind one frontrunner, and the chase pack is down to a short list of starters with the innings and rate stats to catch him. The live board above ranks the current cross-platform prices; the market resolves when the Baseball Writers' Association of America result is announced in November 2026.
The 2026 NL Cy Young race narrowed hard over the summer. Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski carries an MLB-best 1.75 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a league-leading 210 strikeouts through 23 starts, and the board has repriced around him. More than 40 National League arms still hold live contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket behind roughly $4.0M in cumulative volume, but the shape of the market changed from a wide-open June field to one frontrunner and a short chase pack. The live board above ranks every contender by current cross-platform price; this page covers who is actually in the race, what moves it, and how it resolves.
Misiorowski has done exactly what the Cy Young rewards: paired the best rate stats in baseball with a workload that keeps climbing. Through 23 starts he is 12-5 with a 1.75 ERA, 139.0 innings, 210 strikeouts, and a 0.75 WHIP. He leads all of MLB in both ERA and strikeouts, and no qualified starter in either league has a lower WHIP. Milwaukee at 77-48 owns the best record in the National League, so his remaining starts all carry October weight.
The soft spot in his case is innings. At 139.0 through mid-August he trails Cristopher Sanchez by more than 20 frames, and the Brewers have an obvious incentive to manage a young arm into the postseason. Voters have given the award to lower-innings seasons when the rate stats were this far clear of the field, but a September skip or a string of shortened starts is the one event that reopens this market. Milwaukee's grip on the 2026 NL Central division odds is what determines how much they need him in the last two weeks.
Sale is the closest thing the board has to a live challenger. He is 12-8 with a 2.16 ERA, 160 strikeouts, and a 1.02 WHIP across 129.0 innings for a Braves team at 74-50 and leading the NL East. That is the second-best ERA among qualified National League starters and a repeat of the profile that already won him the award once.
The gap is the same one that shows up everywhere else on this board. Sale's ERA sits 0.41 above Misiorowski's, his strikeout total is 50 behind, and he has thrown 10 fewer innings. Closing that inside six weeks takes a run of near-shutout work from Atlanta's ace, a Milwaukee stumble, or both.
Sanchez owns the volume argument nobody else in the league has. He is 15-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 187 strikeouts across a National League-best 161.2 innings in 26 starts, and no NL starter has more wins. Philadelphia at 67-58 sits second in the 2026 NL East race, so his September starts still matter to a playoff position.
Wins are a fading voter input, and his 1.22 WHIP is the weakest of the top three, which is why the market keeps him behind Sale despite the better record. Rotation-mate Zack Wheeler (10-4, 2.89 ERA, 137 strikeouts in 115.1 innings) also splits Philadelphia's down-ballot support, and split support is how a two-ace rotation loses an award it should contend for.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 12-7 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP across 145.1 innings for the 74-51 Dodgers. It is a strong season that has not produced a Cy Young narrative because his 136 strikeouts sit far behind the leaders. Mets rookie Nolan McLean has the strikeout stuff (162 in 142.2 innings) without the run prevention, carrying a 3.34 ERA and an 8-8 record.
The largest repricing of the season belongs to Paul Skenes. He opened the year as one of the board's anchors and now sits 9-11 with a 3.88 ERA over 25 starts for Pittsburgh, more than two runs of ERA behind Misiorowski. Shohei Ohtani's pitching line is excellent (8-2, 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) but confined to 14 starts and 85.2 innings, which is not the workload a Cy Young ballot rewards. Everything below that tier is a long tail of arms sitting at the exchange price floor, where a contract is a lottery ticket on an injury to the top of the board.
The market resolves to the pitcher named the 2026 National League Cy Young Award winner by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Ballots are cast at the close of the regular season and before the postseason begins, and the result is announced during MLB award week in November 2026. Each pitcher contract pays $1 per share if that pitcher wins and $0 otherwise, and Kalshi carries a separate Tie/Co-Winners contract for a split vote. The nominal contract expiration on the exchanges runs later into 2026, but the BBWAA announcement is the trigger that settles the board.
For the other half of the award slate, the 2026 AL Cy Young odds track the American League pitching race on the same cross-platform board. On the team side, the 2026 NL Pennant odds and the 2026 World Series odds price the October picture the leading contenders are pitching toward, and the Milwaukee Brewers playoff odds cover the team behind the current frontrunner. Browse every live board on the MLB prediction markets hub. All prices refresh live on the board above as the National League pitching race runs out its final weeks.
Resolves to the pitcher named the 2026 National League Cy Young Award winner by the Baseball Writers' Association of America, announced during MLB award week in November 2026. Ballots are cast at the close of the regular season, before the postseason begins, so October performance does not count. Each pitcher contract pays $1 per share if that pitcher wins and $0 if any other pitcher wins. A tie or co-winner result resolves according to each platform's published rules, and Kalshi lists a separate Tie/Co-Winners contract for that outcome. If the award is not presented for the 2026 season, the market voids and resolves per platform-specific cancellation rules.
The live board above ranks all 47 National League contenders by current Kalshi and Polymarket price. As of August 17, 2026, Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski is the clear frontrunner at 88c on both books, with Chris Sale and Cristopher Sanchez the only other arms trading meaningfully above the floor.
It resolves when the Baseball Writers' Association of America announces the winner during MLB award week in November 2026. Ballots are cast at the end of the regular season, before the playoffs begin, so postseason starts do not affect the result.
The award trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with each pitcher listed as a separate contract on each platform. The board above compares the cross-platform price on every contender side by side, and several floor-priced arms are listed on only one of the two books.
Jacob Misiorowski. Through 23 starts he is 12-5 with an MLB-best 1.75 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a league-leading 210 strikeouts for a Brewers team at 77-48. Chris Sale (2.16 ERA, 160 strikeouts) is the nearest challenger.
Watch Misiorowski's September workload, since he sits more than 20 innings behind Cristopher Sanchez and Milwaukee has reason to manage him toward October. A Sale run of near-shutout starts or any injured-list news at the top of the board are the other two events that move the price before the November vote.